Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

NYT on the Iowa Visit

The NYT's Patrick Healy writes up the Iowa visit. Occasionally, even the Times can manage to inject some new angles into a story, though it's only modestly successful in this case. Here's the uncharted territory.

Giuliani was unwavering in his support of the President last night in Davenport:

At a fund-raiser in Davenport on Monday night, Mr. Giuliani offered a stout defense of President Bush's leadership, arguing that the economy was growing and that Mr. Bush would go down in history as "a great president."

"I don't know what we're all so upset about," he said, referring to concerns about the economy and rising costs, such as gas prices.

More ruminating on the bizarre McCain/Rudy kabuki dance:

In response to another question, Mr. Giuliani disclosed that he was not sure if his own presidential plans would be swayed if Senator McCain of Arizona also ran in 2008, as many expect.

"John is a good friend and someone I have tremendous admiration for, and he's a hero of mine, so I haven't really thought about how I would approach that," Mr. Giuliani said.

The central premise of this blog is that McCain can be taken by Giuliani and only Giuliani. Let's hope he's not swayed!

Could Rudy bring out folks who've never attended a precinct caucus before. Iowa BC04 Chair Dave Roederer thinks maybe so:

Before the fund-raiser, Mr. Giuliani met with several Iowa Republican leaders who were players in past presidential caucuses — among them David M. Roederer, the state chairman of the Bush-Cheney campaign in 2004, and Terry E. Branstad, a four-term governor who left office in 1999.

In an interview, Mr. Roederer said that a Giuliani presidential bid "would find a very receptive audience in Iowa."

While many traditional caucusgoers are more hard-core conservatives and may oppose Mr. Giuliani over social issues, Mr. Roederer said, other more moderate Republicans might come out of the woodwork and attend the caucuses for the first time to support him because of his brand of politics and his leadership during the 9/11 crisis. More than 610,000 Iowans are registered Republicans, Mr. Roederer said, but only about 110,000 typically vote in the caucuses.

It's an interesting thought, but if I were Chris Henick, I'd be thinking of ways that Rudy shouldn't need to count on it. With no clear pro-life alternative in the race, there's a good chance that said "hard-core conservative" vote could splinter to inconsequential candidates like it did in 2000; whoever emerges as viable alternative for the pragmatic, win-at-all-costs half of the electorate could take Iowa, and I don't think Benedict Arnold McCain fits the Lincoln Day crowd's image of a loyal Republican.

The Dean Scream was a consequence of the fact that even caucus electorates aren't suicidal, a consideration the NYT and the MSM have not even thought of applying to Republicans.

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