Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Saturday, May 27, 2006

Return to the Garden? NYC in the Final Four for 2008 Convention

Per Hugh Hewitt, the 2008 Republican National Convention will be held in one of four cities:

Cleveland
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Tampa-St. Petersburg
New York City

Which one of these is not like the others?

Three of these cities represent swing states. One of them represents symbolism and synergy. Two of the last three times, the GOP has opted for a swing state strategy (San Diego & Philadelphia). Both times, the Conventions failed to give their nominees significant headway in the convention states.

Then the RNC went to New York, a choice which reinforced the party's core message on terrorism even if didn't they have a prayer of winning the state. The Convention resonated nationally and George W. Bush got an eleven point bounce, the most successful convention performance since Bill Clinton (at the Garden) in '92, considering Kerry's dismal bounce from his convention.

In 2008, the Republicans could return to New York. The memory of 9/11 will have faded somewhat -- but symbolism and synergy will be abundant should the nominee be one Rudy Giuliani. It would be a hometown coronation, yes. But the week would also be dedicated to showcasing success stories in the city Rudy brought back from the brink. Like 2004, NYC 2008 would inherently reinforce the campaign's message.

Plus, because the Convention has already been there once before (and it could be coming back from an encore), it would be that much harder to indict Rudy as "too New York" to be nominated. If C0nvention delegates and party poo-bahs actually like New York, and the rank-and-file responded well to 2004's New York convention, being from New York isn't a liability (unless you're dull, uninspiring, and unaccomplished like George Pataki).

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