Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Three New Polls: Tie Nationally, McCain +7 in OH, Rudy +4 in WI

From Hotline On Call, a Cook/RT Strategies Poll has Rudy and McCain tied at 25% apiece. But as these D.C. insiders intimate, it's the crosstabs that fascinate:

Among social conservatives:   McCain: 21     Giuliani: 19
Among business conservatives: Giuliani: 33 McCain 24
Among nat/sec conservatives: McCain: 28 Giuliani: 25
All GOPers: McCain: 25 Giuliani: 25
So, basically, social conservatives are not very well served by the McCain-Giuliani choice and there's a sizeable opening for a so-con identity candidate (not McCain or Rudy). But if it were to boil down to those two, it would be no worse than a wash for the "socially liberal" Giuliani. The business conservative numbers are mildly surprising (in favor of Rudy) and so too the national security conservatives (in favor of McCain).

In Ohio, McCain sports a seven point lead (from the Observer's Politicker):
Things are more spread out among GOP voters. McCain topped the list of 31 percent. But the pack on his heels includes former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani, 25 percent; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, 21 percent; and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 10 percent.
Note that the poll includes non-candidate Condi Rice, so take it with a grain of salt.

Hot off the presses is Strategic Vision's Wisconsin poll, showing Rudy up slightly in a non-Condi match-up, and way ahead with Condi included:

25. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Tommy Thompson excluded; Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 36%
John McCain 32%
Newt Gingrich 6%
George Allen 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 11%

28. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Condoleezza Rice included and Tommy Thompson excluded Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 34%
John McCain 20%
Condoleeza Rice 12%
Newt Gingrich 7%
George Allen 3%
Mitt Romney 3%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 16%

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