Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Giuliani Leads in the Old Confederacy

New Strategic Vision numbers from Georgia and Florida. First, Georgia:

26. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support (Republicans Only)?
Rudy Giuliani 27%
John McCain 22%
Newt Gingrich 15%
George Allen 8%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 4%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 17%
And Florida, which is becoming quite the firewall for Rudy:
8. Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 39%
John McCain 28%
George Allen 8%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 10%
The big variable in the Georgia number is Newt's big showing in his home state. Newt won't enter the race until the fall of 2007, and only then if no frontrunner has emerged. Considering this is the Republican Party, the odds are against a truly leaderless field and hence, a Newt candidacy. Who will Newt's people support? I'd tend to think those attracted to Newt's reformist zeal would go to Rudy and those attracted to his principled conservatism would go to Allen or Romney, with McCain the big loser. If so, Georgia has the potential to be a surprise win for frontrunner Rudy Giuliani.

Or you could buy into the Charlie Cook analysis and conclude that these Southerners all have false consciousness, and will one day awaken from their slumber in a fit of single issue pique and nominate that principled, consistent, dependable conservative, John McCain. Or, the voters of the South could mean exactly what they say.

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