Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Monday, June 05, 2006

Rudy: Like a Balmy, Late Spring Day (and Check Out Those Evangelical Numbers!)

I really like Quinnipiac's thermometer ratings and not just because of the results that came out today. The poll gives us a much more granular read on what different subgroups are thinking about 2008 than a poll of quick, binary choices can give us as it allows respondents to score themselves on a spectrum about their feelings towards candidates.

The banner headline is that Giuliani and McCain are the most popular politicians in America, and they have more crossover support than Hillary Clinton, yadda yadda yadda. But that is of almost no significance to where we are at this point.

The national numbers don't matter. It doesn't matter that Rudy is seven points "warmer" than McCain overall, and McCain's sheen is quickly wearing off, particularly among Democrats, amongst whom he's fallen by 4 "degrees" since the last poll.

Instead, look at the numbers for Republicans, and even more to the point, Evangelicals.

Here are the Quinnipiac thermometer ratings, sorted by all-important Republican support:

            Rep     Dem     Ind     Evang
Rice 75.8 43.0 53.1 64.6
Bush 73.6 22.2 39.2 60.5
Giuliani 73.5 57.5` 61.1 66.2
Cheney 65.2 24.2 36.6 54.4
Rumsfeld 62.2 26.9 38.3 51.9
Allen 58.4 40.3 44.6 54.6
McCain 56.0 56.7 55.2 57.0
Romney 54.7 40.1 49.2 47.3
Frist 53.7 31.2 40.9 51.6
Warner 46.8 47.5 46.6 46.2
Bayh 44.0 50.5 47.7 47.1
Obama 42.0 71.3 59.2 46.5
Biden 39.7 56.3 48.5 43.7
Dodd 39.5 48.6 46.7 42.8
Feingold 36.7 51.4 45.8 39.5
Edwards 35.9 60.8 50.3 43.8
Kerry 25.8 61.0 46.4 33.9
Clinton 25.2 72.0 48.9 35.3
Gore 24.5 63.6 45.7 35.5
Sixteen degrees warmer than McCain among Republicans. The most popular leader with Evangelicals in America. Wow.

In a Republican primary where only Democrats, Independents, and New York Times editorial board members could vote, McCain would be the prohibitive frontrunner. Unfortunately for John Weaver and Mike Dennehy, we do not live in such a world.

The question is, for how much longer can the Rudy-doubters in political circles and in the press ignore these numbers? Because John McCain is looking more and more like John Connally with each passing day.

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