Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Friday, June 09, 2006

Two Contradictory National Polls, +8 in WI

Two days, two major polls on the Republican nomination. Rudy leads in one 29-24, and McCain leads the other 29-24.

First, Gallup:

Gallup Poll. June 1-4, 2006. N=419 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.

Rudy Giuliani 29
John McCain 24
Newt Gingrich 8
Mitt Romney 6
Bill Frist 6
George Allen 5
Sam Brownback 2
Mike Huckabee 2
George Pataki 1
Someone else 3
None (vol.) 4
All/Any (vol.) 1
Unsure 9
Charlie Cook's poll has always showed it tied or McCain slightly ahead when other polls have shown Giuliani up. This one is no exception:
Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. June 1-4, 2006. N=874 registered voters nationwide.

John McCain 29
Rudy Giuliani 24
Mitt Romney 8
Newt Gingrich 6
Bill Frist 5
George Pataki 4
George Allen 3
Tom Tancredo 3
Sam Brownback 1
Chuck Hagel 1
Mike Huckabee -
Unsure 15
Note: Crosstabs and PowerPoint on the Cook poll supposedly coming today.

Another wrinkle in the Gallup poll, which is now behind a subscriber wall: it showed Giuliani's lead narrowing to 2 when Republican leaners were excluded. This frankly runs counter to polls showing more active and intense Republicans supporting Rudy over McCain, but I suspect we won't really know the answer until someone conducts a poll of 800 to 1,200 likely Republican voters based on past vote history and voter registration.

Also, Strategic Vision (I love them) is out with a new Wisconsin poll showing Mark Green up by a point in the Governor's race and Rudy up by 8 in the Republican primary:
24. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Tommy Thompson excluded; Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 38%
John McCain 30%
George Allen 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 13%
Again, bizarelly, Condi hurts McCain when she's included. Is McCain particularly vulnerable to a spoiler candidacy?

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