Exploding the McCain Electability Argument

What's in the water this week? First Cillizza backtracks, now Stu Rothenberg is acting funny. The media litany is getting awfully familiar by now:

Many Republicans feel the same way. Even conservatives seem willing to support a nominee with whom they don’t entirely agree, such as Arizona Sen. John McCain, if that is the only way to guarantee that New York Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton — and her husband, former President Bill Clinton — don’t return to the White House.
...
Most Republicans in Iowa and other early primary and caucus states probably would be more comfortable with the views and style of Sen. George Allen (Va.) than with that of McCain. But when electability becomes a factor, Allen’s appeal is diluted. That could change, however, if Democrats select a nominee whom Republicans consider unelectable. In that case, conservative Republicans might be more willing to stand with Allen, believing that he could win the general election.

Hello? But where's Rudy in all this?

The Inside the Beltway narrative goes like this: conservatives may not be entirely comfortable with McCain, but they'll come around once they come to realize he's their only hope for defeating Hillary. You see this being repeated by virtually every major Beltway pundit. This analysis would hold true if Giuliani weren't making noises about running. But with Giuliani anywhere near making the race, the analysis completely explodes, and the choice becomes an easy one for conservatives.

The pragmatic case for Rudy is this: Rudy is the McCain substitute in the race. He brings you electability. He brings you moderate streed cred. And he does it all without a record of stabbing conservatives in the back. Rudy may not be the first choice of the RedState/Rush Limbaugh/Iowa Caucus crowd. But conservatives can swallow him because they like him and trust him. In all probability, movement pro-lifers won't have a dog in the McCain or Rudy campaigns. That means there is nothing stopping a pro-choice Rudy from gaining the ascendancy over pro-life McCain. Pragmatic pro-business, pro-GWOT Republicans will rally around Rudy because they don't trust McCain. Rudy trumps McCain in the "moderate" primary and goes on to square off against Allen or Romney for the whole enchilada.

The Beltway media simply doesn't comprehend the depth of conservative activist antipathy towards McCain. It's not that he fails to inspire them -- it's that viscerally despise the guy. It's hard to see them jumping aboard the Straight Talk Express, especially when Giuliani solves the McCain dilemma for conservatives.

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