Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

McCain Beats Hillary in MA and Rudy Doesn't (Why This is a Good Thing)

DaveG, now my colleague over at the Race42008 blog, has an interesting piece on the Massachusetts poll showing McCain beating Hillary in Massachusetts (!) by a point, with Rudy trailing by 8 points. Ryan Sager won't be surprised to learn that Dave and myself are finding a silver lining to this. I'd go a step further and argue that this undermines the McCain electability argument, and shows why he should not be the nominee.

The crux of the argument is this: If McCain is winning Massachusetts, it's not just swing voters he's winning, it's hardcore, dyed-in-the-wool liberal Democrats. Dave notes that McCain's strength in the dark blue states is peculiar since he's not beating Hillary by 20 to 30 points nationally. Where does he pay for his strength in Massachusetts? Most likely by shedding conservatives he should be winning in the dark red states. Extend this out to other heartland swing states with a reddish tinge and McCain's appeal to coastal elites makes states like Iowa, Missouri, and perhaps Ohio less winnable if the race suddenly tightens (and it will -- Bush was once up by 15-20 points in 2000 and 2004).

What troubles me about nominating about nominating a candidate who could win Massachusetts -- which has been on the wrong side of every Presidential election but one for two generations -- is that it forces us to rely on an extremely shaky and untenable coalition of conservative Republicans, maverick independents, and even some liberal Democrats. How do you keep all of these groups together? The answer is that you can't. You piss off conservatives by playing to MSM and your liberal supporters, and you piss off liberals by doing what you need to do to reach out to the Religious Right. Once McCain is forced to choose what kind of candidate he wants to be, the wheels start flying off. The liberals will flock back home to the Democrats like they do every election, McCain will lose his lead, and he has to go back to the well with an atrophied and unenthused base. The conservatives who gave 110% for W. will give 75-80% for McCain.

The problem with McCain's base is that it's not coherent. He attracts support from all over the ideological spectrum. And that's a bad thing. It means he has an unusually difficult job in pleasing everyone, particularly if the media one day decides to stop giving him a free ride.

One thing Karl Rove understands well is that to win, your base needs to be coherent and in agreement with itself at least 80% of the time. That's why Bush hasn't played to the middle and was able to win time after time on base turnout. Both Giuliani and McCain should be able to add voters outside the base. The question is how?

As Dave suggests, only Giuliani has the potential to build a true center-right coalition, tacking on the 3 or 4 percent of voters just to the left of Bush's 51 percent while leaving the liberal rump exclusively to Hillary. McCain brings us a hodgepodge of moderates, Massachusetts liberals, and the mainstream media. All of which we need like a hole in the head. Ultimately, it will prove impossible to manage and McCain will implode.

McCain's appeal is similar to that of the The West Wing's Arnold Vinick. Remember him? The maverick Republican who led prohibitively in every early poll, was urged to run a 50-state strategy by his Democratic strategist, and ultimately crashed and burned against a bread-and-butter liberal when he didn't keep his eye on the ball and mobilize his base.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:


At 1:47 AM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ninest123 10.23
burberry outlet online, ugg boots, replica watches, louis vuitton, oakley sunglasses, longchamp, ray ban sunglasses, michael kors outlet, tiffany and co, louis vuitton outlet, replica watches, louboutin shoes, cheap oakley sunglasses, ugg boots, nike outlet, nike air max, michael kors, oakley sunglasses, burberry, uggs on sale, michael kors outlet, ray ban sunglasses, nike free, kate spade outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, michael kors outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, jordan shoes, christian louboutin outlet, prada outlet, michael kors outlet, prada handbags, oakley sunglasses, ray ban sunglasses, nike air max, longchamp outlet, louboutin, louis vuitton, ugg boots, tiffany jewelry, chanel handbags, tory burch outlet, gucci outlet, louis vuitton outlet, michael kors outlet, ugg boots, oakley sunglasses, longchamp outlet, louboutin outlet

At 1:52 AM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

sac longchamp, coach factory outlet, burberry, hollister pas cher, true religion jeans, kate spade handbags, hermes, ray ban pas cher, sac guess, nike air max, true religion jeans, lululemon, air force, louboutin pas cher, coach outlet, true religion jeans, nike roshe, nike blazer, michael kors, nike air max, michael kors, converse pas cher, ralph lauren uk, mulberry, vanessa bruno, vans pas cher, coach outlet, air jordan pas cher, nike free, air max, ray ban uk, north face, lacoste pas cher, nike free run uk, nike roshe run, hollister, new balance pas cher, michael kors, hogan, coach purses, tn pas cher, abercrombie and fitch, longchamp pas cher, oakley pas cher, timberland, michael kors, true religion outlet, north face, nike air max, ralph lauren pas cher, louis vuitton

At 1:55 AM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

birkin bag, soccer shoes, celine handbags, louboutin, vans shoes, mac cosmetics, nike air max, baseball bats, lululemon, wedding dresses, gucci, nike roshe, iphone 6 cases, hollister, mcm handbags, hollister, instyler, reebok shoes, bottega veneta, converse, p90x workout, asics running shoes, hollister, mont blanc, ghd, insanity workout, nfl jerseys, chi flat iron, new balance, nike trainers, beats by dre, jimmy choo shoes, north face outlet, longchamp, ralph lauren, herve leger, ray ban, valentino shoes, giuseppe zanotti, ferragamo shoes, nike huarache, vans, abercrombie and fitch, oakley, nike air max, soccer jerseys, timberland boots, babyliss, converse outlet, north face outlet, swarovski

At 1:58 AM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

pandora charms, moncler, sac louis vuitton pas cher, moncler outlet, thomas sabo, pandora charms, louis vuitton, juicy couture outlet, hollister, wedding dresses, juicy couture outlet, moncler, michael kors outlet online, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, links of london, marc jacobs, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, pandora jewelry, barbour, canada goose, michael kors handbags, louis vuitton, montre pas cher, canada goose outlet, swarovski crystal, lancel, moncler, bottes ugg, moncler, canada goose outlet, canada goose, moncler, canada goose, canada goose uk, pandora jewelry, moncler, louis vuitton, coach outlet, doudoune canada goose, moncler, toms shoes, replica watches, louis vuitton, barbour jackets, supra shoes, ugg boots uk, michael kors outlet, karen millen, canada goose, doke gabbana outlet, ugg pas cher
ninest123 10.23

At 2:56 AM, Blogger mmjiaxin said...

celine outlet
oakley outlet store
michael kors canada
oakley canada
mulberry handbags sale
cheap jordan shoes
tory burch outlet online
black friday 2015
coach outlet store
rolex watches for sale
louis vuitton outlet online
tiffany and co
timberland shoes
ralph lauren polo
cheap football shirts
ray-ban sunglasses
nike free uk
mulberry outlet
oakley sunglasses uk
fred perry polo shirts

At 4:37 AM, Blogger Esraa Abbas said...

Very good post. I'm facing some of these issues as well..

At 8:03 AM, Blogger LCc 03 said...

lacoste online shop
michael kors
yeezy boost 350
cheap jordans
michael kors outlet
lacoste polo shirts
michael kors handbags
longchamp handbags
cheap jordans
nike zoom

At 2:22 PM, Blogger omar ali said...

Your site is very helpful


Post a Comment

<< Home