Rudy Continues to Lead

Overlooked in the highly fascinating Gallup poll that finds McCain unacceptable to many Republicans is the raw ballot test, which continues to show Rudy with a small lead.

2006 Jun 1-4	Republican registered voters	All Republicans
	%	%
Rudy Giuliani	29	28
John McCain	24	24
Newt Gingrich	8	8
Mitt Romney	6	7
Bill Frist	6	6
George Allen	5	5
Sam Brownback	2	2
Mike Huckabee	2	2
George Pataki	1	1
Other	3	3
None	4	4
All/any	1	1
No opinion	9	10

When the sample is tightened just slightly to include just voters (30 respondents), Rudy's lead grows by a bit.

This Gallup poll is perfectly consistent with the last one that also showed a 4-5 point Rudy lead. Yet lazy reporters continue to report on McCain as being "at or near the top" of most primary polls. The AP's Iowa reporter Mike Glover virtually congratulated him on being the frontrunner based on polls.

If that is the case, McCain is an unusually weak frontrunner. In the past, those that have earned the title of frontrunner have been running in the 40's while their main competition is in the teens or even single digits. McCain is not the frontrunner in the commonly understood definition of the term.

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