Deconstructing Bevan's Giuliani Critique

Kudos to Tom Bevan for rising above the trite "guns, God, and gays" analysis, and attacking some of the real issues on which '08 will be decided. It will come as no surprise that I don't agree with the majority of what Bevan writes in this piece questioning Giuliani's credentials on immigration, the First Amendment, and judges, but at least he's asking the right questions.

This blog (as well as RCP's Ryan Sager) has approached the '08 campaign as McCain vs. Giuliani, and Bevan's piece is a critical look at Rudy's positions on the same issues on which McCain has badly alienated the base. Is Giuliani really better on the issues?

Let's start with immigration:

While McCain has taken heat for his support of comprehensive immigration reform, Rudy is every bit as pro-immigration as McCain - if not more so. On the O'Reilly Factor last week Giuliani argued for a "practical approach" to immigration and cited his efforts as Mayor of New York City to "regularize" illegal immigrants by providing them with access to city services like public education to "make their lives reasonable." Giuliani did say that "a tremendous amount of money should be put into the physical security" needed to stop the flow of illegal immigrants coming across the border, but his overall position on immigration is essentially indistinguishable from McCain's.

That's not quite the takeaway I got from the O'Reilly appearance. Though far from ideal, it sounded to me like Giuliani was starting to pivot to an enforcement-first position on that show. As Giuliani explained it, the Federal government was failing to enforce its own immigration laws, and without the authority to deport illegals, New York City was in a bit of a bind. Because the Clinton Administration did very little by way of deportations, it was up to the city government to ensure their children had access to the schools and basic health care. (Denying public services, FWIW, is the least popular point in the enforcement-only agenda.) Presumably, Giuliani as Commander-in-Chief would be able take a more active role in stemming the flow of illegals, applying the same crime-fighting techniques he used in New York to securing the border.

Bevan takes on the First Amendment next, and it's here that his argument falls a bit flat, trying to link the Brooklyn Museum and the liberal attack on Rudy as an authoritarian in with campaign finance reform. These are very separate issues, and arguably they help Rudy with conservatives.

There are few issues that get social conservatives more riled up than indecency in the public square. In standing up to the filth at the Brooklyn Museum -- and tapping into his overall image as the guy who cleaned up New York (and Times Square smut), Rudy can be cast as a defender of traditional values.

Conservative anger at John McCain is focused on campaign finance reform. Conservatives were angry that CFR would 1) de-fund conservative groups -- and now the 527s ready to pounce on McCain in the primaries, and 2) empower the MSM, reducing the importance of "paid media" relative to the constant drone of liberal "free media." It's no tribute to McCain's dogged efforts to centrally plan our future to point out that McCain-Feingold has utterly failed in its objective of reducing the importance of money and influence-peddling in politics. Unless Rudy comes out for some new form of CFR, expect this to continue being a big McCain liability.

Finally, on judges, Bevan asks how we know that Rudy can be trusted to nominate better judges than McCain:

Conservatives often cite McCain's leadership role in the Gang of 14 as one of the reasons they find him objectionable. Indeed, nominating solidly conservative judges is among one of the most dearly held values of conservative Republicans. We can only speculate as to how Giuliani would have voted were he in the Senate, or whom he would nominate as president. But he's given no indication that he would be any better than McCain on the issue of judges, and you could argue quite convincingly that Giuliani's background and ideological make up would lead him to be much less stringent (and therefore in the eyes of conservatives, much worse) in appointing strict conservative judges to the bench.

To my mind, the Gang of 14 is the tip of the iceberg. The judges issue is important to conservatives not just because of the Judiciary's vast influence over social issues, but every issue, from private property to the Pledge to campaign finance to military tribunals. (The courts are the ultimate gateway issue in the conservative world.) Would McCain be apt to nominate judges who would undo his signature pieces of legislation, namely McCain-Feingold and the vaunted "torture" amendment?

I agree with Tom that this is the biggest unanswered question about a Rudy candidacy. I can only suggest that Giuliani's vast experience in the judicial system, along with his penchant for executive authority, would make him naturally tend towards judicial restraint -- without (and before) having to "modify" any of his positions.

Ultimately, though, the key to Rudy's appeal is this:

The first is that he is strikingly charismatic and flat out likeable. Where McCain often rubs conservatives the wrong way with a sanctimonious, holier-than-thou attitude, Giuliani comes across as a very attractive, approachable, down-to-earth personality. In the contest of who you'd rather have a beer with, Giuliani would win in a landslide over McCain - and the rest of the GOP field.

Voters value attributes more highly than issues at the ballot box, and this may be Rudy's saving grace. But this brings home why Giuliani could be expected to prevail against McCain even without changing many of his positions. If both men are roughly as objectionable to primary voters on the issues, personality could well be the tie-breaker.

Rudy doesn't have to run as a conservative to beat John McCain -- he could probably do that with one hand tied behind his back. He needs to run as a conservative to beat George Allen, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee, who will ultimately be a bigger threat to Rudy to coming down the stretch.

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