Fox: Rudy Leads McCain By 10 Among Republicans
Now can we please dispense with this nonsense that the base will never accept Rudy?
In the Republican primary question, Giuliani (27 percent) edges McCain (25 percent) for the leader spot, with the only other candidate to receive double-digit support being former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (14 percent).
If there were only two choices, Republicans say they would choose Giuliani (46 percent) over McCain (36 percent). Among independents, McCain (46 percent) bests Giuliani (29 percent).
By a slim 6-point margin, voters who supported President George W. Bush in the 2004 election say they would back Giuliani (43 percent) over McCain (37 percent).
Assuming the Cook/RT Strategies poll that had me doing somersaults is a bit too kind to Rudy, and that this poll is a bit too kind to McCain, Rudy's lead in the two-man amongst Republicans is probably something on the order of 15 points.
And we've already seen how McCain's support is more easily peeled off once other candidates gain name recognition.
McCainiacs could easily raise the objection that independents do vote in Republican primaries. (But alas, not in Michigan anymore.) But look at Rudy's six point lead with the universe that supported President Bush in 2004. The 2008 primary electorate will almost certainly be no less conservative than the 2004 Bush electorate (which included plenty of independents and casual Republicans). And the more conservative the electorate, the more they detest McCain.