SV: Michigan Continues to Vex

Via Kavon, we find that Michigan is one state where John McCain legitimately leads:

20. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)
John McCain 37%
Rudy Giuliani 23%
Mitt Romney 14%
Newt Gingrich 4%
George Allen 3%
Bill Frist 3%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 13%

There's a clear trend here. John McCain won Michigan (and New Hampshire) with significant fanfare in 2000. What you'll see in early polling of those states is the residual effects of that big earned media boost until the imperatives of the current race set in. Just look at the early poll that showed John Edwards ahead of Hillary in Iowa -- in no place (save for the Carolinas) would Edwards be beating Hillary, but he famously broke out in Iowa in 2004, earning him significant goodwill in the state.

In primary politics, past performance is no guarantee of future results. George H.W. Bush shocked Ronald Reagan in Iowa but struggled to finish third there in 1988. New Hampshire was Bush's Achilles Heel in '80 but his salvation in '88. Presidential politics is littered with the graveyards of those who didn't know when to quit: Nelson Rockefeller, Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, Steve Forbes, Lamar Alexander, and soon, the almost running-mates John Kerry and John McCain.

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