Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Friday, October 27, 2006

Giuliani Has Highest Favorables in South Carolina

I've been trying to nail down this poll all day, and South Carolina expert Byron York finally delivers it.

Much to even my surprise, Rudy has far and away the highest favorable ratings among South Carolina Republicans.

Candidate Heard of Favorable Unfavorable

John McCain 96% 65% 23%
Newt Gingrich 95% 53% 31%
Rudy Giuliani 93% 78% 10%
George Pataki 69% 35% 18%
Bill Frist 66% 43% 21%
Mitt Romney 40% 41% 11%
George Allen 37% 38% 11%
Mike Huckabee 16% — —

Convert it to the net rating and it's Rudy +68%, McCain +42%, Romney +30%, Allen +27%, Frist +22%, Gingrich +21%, Pataki +17%. It's true that there's a New Yorker in this race who will never sell in the South. Except his name is George Pataki. Moderate New Yorkers bookend this poll in terms of favorability.

People carp about "name ID" skewing polls like this. I agree 100%. Romney or Huckabee just aren't where they'll be in February of '08. But a legitimate comparison can be made between candidates who are well known (Rudy, McCain, Newt), those who are moderately well known (Pataki, Frist), and those who are complete unknowns (Romney, Allen, Huckabee).

Among the universally well known candidates, Rudy beats McCain who beats Newt. Because they've been on the public stage for years, opinions of these leaders are the hardest to change. While opinions of these leaders are likely to take somewhat of a beating, their public personas are to some extent firm and fixed. McCain won't become a conservative hero. Rudy will never lose that association with 9/11.

In the welterweight category, Frist and Pataki have been on the public stage as "supporting actors" and have managed to rack up pretty high unfavorables, a fact that probably dooms their bids. Though there are theoretically 30% or 40% of Republicans who haven't heard of them who can be moved, everyone basically agrees that these two are dead in the water because of the baggage they've already collected manifested by their inability to move beyond a 2-1 favorable ratio.

It's not a coincidence that those considered the brightest stars in the field (at one point or another) share the fact of low name ID. They're clean slates. They can introduce themselves to the electorate on their own terms. They could easily rocket up to Giuliani/McCain heights by extending their 3 and 4-1 edge in favorability with the 60% who don't know them. Romney's nearly 4-to-1 favorable ratio has got to be encouraging from the standpoint of knocking down the LDS issue as a problem for his bid in the South.

Perhaps a more accurate measure might be the ratio of favorables to unfavorables. They are:

Rudy 7.8/1
Romney 3.7 /1
Allen 3.5 / 1
McCain 2.8 /1
Frist 2.1 / 1
Pataki 1.9 /1
Newt 1.7 / 1

You'll notice that McCain hovers not too far above DOA status.

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7 Comments:

At 11:58 PM, Blogger winin08 said...

but still trails mccain in votes significantly and this before voters know rudy is pro-federal funding of abortion, pro-gay rights and pro-gun control. Really, when are you going to come to your senses, ryan?

 
At 8:42 AM, Blogger RudyBlogger said...

Heh.

"trails McCain in votes significantly?" On what planet? In every national poll and in the vast majority of states, Rudy leads significantly. This poll didn't ask the head-to-head question, as far as I know. Do you have a link?

 
At 11:12 AM, Blogger winin08 said...

Since the nomination is secured by winning one state at a time, at least early, I mean in the early primary states . . . keep dreaming Rudy Blogger.

 
At 1:31 PM, Blogger RudyBlogger said...

Does the Clemson poll show John McCain ahead in South Carolina (a result even I would have expected at this stage in the game)? In fact, the only '08 question asked is candidate favorability, and on that, Rudy laps the field.

Nice try.

 
At 2:55 PM, Blogger winin08 said...

Please post a survey which shows Rudy ahead in michigan, new hampshire or south carolina. tick tock.

 
At 9:46 PM, Blogger RudyBlogger said...

Selective omission is the order of the day I see.

All of those contests are preceded by this little thing called the Iowa Caucuses, which will dictate the momentum of these other contests. The latest Iowa poll shows Rudy leading by 13. In MI and NH, McCain leads. There has been no independent polling done on the ballot test in SC.

The fascination with Michigan is odd though. There is a very high likelihood that Florida will move its primary to February 5, which will dwarf Michigan and Alabama in importance. And oh, Rudy leads there by something on the order of 2-to-1.

Now, how about Huckabee's F rating on fiscal issues? You don't expect him to get past a primary with that, do you?

Or do you not have a defense for that, since you're not really supporting Huckabee?

 
At 5:58 AM, Blogger winin08 said...

Mike Huckabee will do very well in Iowa, as fiscal and social conservatives flock to him. I agree McCain won't do well there, but your bashing of him constantly without addressing Rudy's problems and the assets of other candidates is very sad.

 

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