Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Monday, October 16, 2006

Reality Check: Does Obama Really = Rudy?

Sometimes, something happens that really causes you to recognize just how out of whack the MSM's analysis of the '08 field really is. The Obama Time cover is just such a thing.

Does Obama really have a shot at being President in 2008? Probably not, though he is the nominee-presumptive if Hillary loses. Experience matters in Presidential races, and it's doubtful that the electorate will take kindly to a four year Senator whose other resume highlight included a stint in the Illinois State Senate. Learn the lesson of John Edwards, and wait, Senator (or don't -- and wreck another promising Democratic career in the making).

This doesn't stop Time from spilling a lot of ink on the possibility, or National Journal from bumping him to #3 in their presidential rankings (just like Rudy), though the chances of Obama making a run are probably less than 20%.

In putting him on their radar screen, National Journal equated him to Rudy:

Obama is the Giuliani of the Democratic field: a candidate who probably won't run but can't be dismissed. He's traveling around the country, talking to donors and burnishing his already incandescent public image. He never has a bad day in the press and is very ambitious. Bottom line: If Clinton doesn't run, we're pretty sure Obama will. If she does, he'll probably step back. And as long as Clinton continues to ponder a run, it's easy for Obama to disclaim any interest while still covertly flirting with the idea.

Obama is interesting and personally magnetic, but utterly unqualified. He'd probably have his clock cleaned in a head-to-head with Hillary (and that's assuming Al Gore doesn't get in). Right now, he'd probably poll in single digits or low double digits in Dem primary polls if included. It is doubtful he'll take a chance and run for President in 2008.

Giuliani is the frontrunner of the GOP field by any conventional measure of grassroots support and enthusiasm. He regularly polls over 30 percent in Republican polls, and has opened up a double digit lead on John McCain in national polls. Moreover, he has the track record (successful two term executive of a city the size of North Carolina, national hero, sterling security credentials) that makes him the most logical future occupant of the Oval Office. His recent rise indicates that the time is ripe for him to run for President, and he probably will.

You couldn't find two more different candidates than Giuliani and Obama in terms of their chances in 2008. A Giuliani presidency is still far and away more likely than an Obama one. Yet who's on the cover of Time? And who's being equated to the Republican frontrunner?

This seems to be a case of liberals in the media trying hard to set the agenda and leaving no stone unturned for a potential Democratic winner in '08. Could you imagine them doing the same on our side? Instead, they're busily trying to winnow down our field.

To equate Giuliani and Obama is just... farfetched. It's downright odd. And it shines a bright light on just how flawed the National Journal narrative about '08 truly is.

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