Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Monday, October 02, 2006

Rudy holds the "Keys" to the White House

Metaphorically speaking, of course.

I explain why over at R4'08. This argument involves the analysis of a formula designed by American University professor Allan Lichtman, which has accurately predicted the popular vote winner of every presidential election since 1860. I encourage you to read the whole piece, but the long and the short of it is that the political, economic, and geopolitical dynamics of the country right now portend a close race in 2008, one that necessitates a GOP candidate with the charisma of Reagan and Roosevelt and the national hero status of an Eisenhower.

How does all of this relate to Rudy?

"If there’s a national hero in this race, it’s Rudy Giuliani. Five years later, Rudy remains the untarnished hero of 9/11 in the American psyche. Like Ike in the years following WWII, Rudy has been able to remain above the fray and is currently one of the most respected political figures in the nation. Add to that his Reaganesque communication skills and his ability consolidate the vast majority of Republicans behind him while reaching out to independents and Democrats and the result is a nominee that would almost certainly satisfy the Lichtman formula."

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At 4:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rudy would make an awesome president in these perilous times. Plus I think he'd be great fun to watch and listen to.

At 10:23 PM, Blogger Jim said...

You are saying that Rudy is a national hero enough to cause Lichtman Key 12 to stand. Only two candidates qualified for National Hero status according to Lichtman's analysis - Dwight Eisenhower and Ulysses Grant. Are you saying he would compare with these?

To me the Democrats have the advantage in 2008. Key 1 (mandate, due to the elections that have just concluded), 3 (incumbency), 7 (policy), 10 (military success), 11 (military failure = Iraq), and 12 (incumbent charisma or hero) to me have all fallen. That's enough (6) to defeat the Republican. Even if Guiliani were a national hero, the Democrats could run Barack Obama (charisma) and win, and peak oil threatens to bring down the economy in 2008 and with it Keys 5 and 6.

At 11:03 AM, Blogger cbdupray said...

There is no doubt Rudy is the most charismatic republican in 20 years. He will make a visceral connection with voters that he is the real thing; ferocious on national security, fiscally conservative, and able to explain his positions. He will dismantle Hillary Clinton's liberal platitudes and expose her double talk like no one else. I've got 2 posts on this at and

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