Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Has Rudy Got "Big Mo' "?

It certainly appears that way after the bombshell of the formation of an exploratory committee dropped on Monday. Deroy Murdock, writing for Human Events, discusses why Rudy is the current ‘08 frontrunner:

With his exploratory committee now prospecting for 2008, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani leads the GOP’s White House hopefuls. His standing atop numerous polls remains unchallenged. Also, his recent endorsement by some former critics suggests that social conservatives who explore his record might embrace him as president of the United States.

Surveys consistently demonstrate that Giuliani, not Arizona Senator John McCain, is this race’s front-runner. It’s not even close.

In a nationwide Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,050 Republicans and 203 GOP-leaning independents, 24 percent backed Giuliani while 18 percent chose Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. McCain, at 17 percent, lags behind Rice, a declared non-candidate.

“If we assume Rice is not running and allocate her votes,” says pollster Scott Rasmussen, “Giuliani would top McCain 32 percent to 22 percent in the November 4 - 7 study.”

Among likely Republican voters polled in Michigan, McCain beat Giuliani 33 percent to 25. Rudy romped elsewhere in Strategic Vision’s November 6 survey. Giuliani outran McCain by nine points in Georgia (33 percent to 24); 19 in Florida (46 percent to 27) and Washington State (42 percent to 23); 22 in New Jersey (47 percent to 25); and 23 points in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 24). Gov. Mitt Romney (R.–Mass.) scored, at best, a distant third in these states.

A Clemson University poll of South Carolina Republicans and GOP-leaners revealed Giuliani’s enormous 68 percent net-favorable rating (78 percent favorable minus 10 percent unfavorable). McCain’s equivalent figure was 42 percent (65 favorable, less 23 percent unfavorable).

These figures don’t surprise Rasmussen.

“Giuliani has the highest net-favorable ratings of any candidate on whom we’ve been polling,” he says. “Giuliani’s higher than McCain and higher than Hillary Clinton. He’s even higher than Bill Clinton.”

SayNoToRudy.Org’s on-line retreat also impresses. As the Ohio-based website’s self-described, social-conservative organizers stated November 5: “We sought to do everything legally possible to prevent [Giuliani] from becoming the Republican presidential nominee…Unexpectedly, as we began to see more and more of who Mr. Giuliani really is…we found that Mr. Giuliani is truly a committed Republican and an accomplished conservative on many issues…Therefore, the creators of this organization, with much humility and apology, beyond all probability, hereby announce that we are willing to endorse Mr. Giuliani for the Presidency in 2008.”

Despite widespread misinformation about how “liberal” Giuliani is, this group’s 180-degree reversal shows what can happen when conservatives scrutinize Giuliani’s entire performance. Giuliani chopped overall crime 57 percent, slashed homicide 65 percent, graduated 649,895 New Yorkers (58.4 percent of relief recipients) from welfare to work, curbed or abolished 23 taxes, sliced the tax burden by $8 billion or 18.9 percent of personal income, halted racial and gender quotas in contracting, delivered 25,637 children from foster care to adoption, privatized some 23,000 apartments from bureaucratic control to individual and family ownership, and financed charter schools while fighting for vouchers. Some liberal.

Yes, America’s Mayor must comfort GOP primary voters on abortion, gays, and guns. He might do this by advocating parental consent for minors who have abortions, and opposing partial-birth abortion and subsidized embryonic stem-cell research. (Can’t drug companies fund this?) He could outline his longtime opposition to gay marriage and promise to nominate constitutionalist judges who respect the Second Amendment. If Rudy Giuliani did this, his Reaganesque approach to nearly every other issue — plus his tough leadership, counterterrorism credentials, and communications prowess — could make him irresistible in 2008


The critical response to Rudy stratospheric poll numbers is always something along the lines of, “Wait until Republicans find out about his social views”.

The problem with this tired argument is that polling does not back this view up. In fact, it debunks it completely.

John McCain’s own pollster Charlie Cook polled for this very question. They found when they informed those Republicans polled about Rudy’s social views his approval rating still held at about 60%.

“Big Mo” is Rudy’s for right now.

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6 Comments:

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I don't know about big "mo" but he certainly has mojo, which I totally admire (Democratic white male voter here). He's going to be a great candidate, crossing party lines. All he needs to do is to add a conservative vice presidential candidate to the ticket (like Condi or Mitt Romney) and his GOP critics would be pacified.

 
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