McCain Now in a Weaker Position for '08?
That's what McCain-booster (and generally smart guy) LJ says in the comments in R4'08, now that Democrats have gained control of the Senate:
Here’s my theory: With the Senate in Democratic control, McCain loses the vaunted Armed Services Committee that he’s been pining over for more than a decade (he’ll become the ranking member now). He and his advisers had hoped that with that committee he could make a high profile impact on our Iraq policy (presumably working to end the conflict or at the very least stabilize it more). That would neutralize any potential attack on him in the general that he is an uber-hawk that has not offered any plan to end the war besides sending more troops (which will be much more untenable in 2008 then it is right now). Now he will have even less effect of military policy then he did during the 109th Congress.
Most importantly though, the Dems control what bills will get voted on. If McCain continues to look very strong heading into mid-late 2007, it’s very conceivable that Harry Reid will force McCain to vote on bills like, say, more ethanol subsidies. If McCain votes against it, he stands on his principals but it will severely damage him in Iowa. If he votes for them, the Dems have a ready made ad calling him a flip-flopper. Now image that happening on dozens of bills. This is the main reason that senators have such a hard time getting elected to the White House. If the Senate had remained in GOP hands, this wouldn’t be a problem at all.
Of course there is a chance that the Dems won’t take this course of action, but I am not hopeful of that luck. Because of that, I think that Rudy Giuliani is in a better position for 2008 now (as much as that pains me).