Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Will California and Florida Clinch it for Rudy?

In a move that hasn't gained nearly enough attention yet, the Boston Globe reports that both California and Florida are thinking of moving up their primaries as far as the first Tuesday in February.

If so, it would dramatically alter the calculus of the early primary season. Rudy has been leading in early Florida polls by as much as 2-to-1. The state also features a huge number of New York transplants who probably voted twice for Rudy as mayor. Once solidly in purple territory, Florida is also fast becoming the heartland of new GOP, with a newly elected Republican governor (staying free and clear of the '06 tsunami), near supermajorities in the legislature, and an electoral count that will rival Texas by 2030. An early victory there would signal that Rudy has captured the heart of today's Republican Party and give him a certain measure of Southern credibility, assuming the Deep South is not as solid (and I don't expect it to be).

California in many ways has already provided a template for a Rudy victory. The 2002 primary for governor, in which Rudy-endorsed conservative Bill Simon beat moderate LA Mayor Richard Riordan, showed that the Republican primary electorate is as conservative as anywhere (not to mention Bush's victory over McCain in the 2000 primary). Arnold's resilience in the face of many of the same criticisms Rudy faces now shows that conservatives will accept a political moderate with star power. During the 2003 recall, you had the worry that conservative Tom McClintock and Arnold would nearly split the Republican vote, delivering a Democratic successor to Gray Davis. Didn't happen. Arnold received three times more votes than McClintock and won by double digits.

Perhaps it's time to refocus from South Carolina and Michigan, home of the most heated "proxy wars," and on to the big states that will not be kind to non-frontrunners (especially should FL or even CA take place on the same day as SC and MI).

(HT: Eye on '08)

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At 5:35 PM, Blogger Rob said...

SUMMARY: Unless something changes, Clinton will win the Democratic party nomination, Romney (!) will win several states that vote in January, but Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), which includes California and New York (Giuliani strongholds) will probably decide the Republican party nomination (Thompson is an X-factor).

I think Iowa (Jan. 14), Michigan (Jan. 15), South Carolina (Jan. 19/29), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22, but could move up), Florida (Jan. 29), California (Feb. 5) and New York (Feb. 5) will likely determine the Presidential candidates for November 2008. The Georgia Republican and Democratic primaries are February 5, 2008, and could be key in the GOP nomination. The Virginia and D.C. Republican and Democratic primaries are February 12, 2008, and may be a factor in the GOP nomination if Super Tuesday doesn't produce a front-runner. The Massachusetts and Texas Republican and Democratic primaries are March 4, 2008.

I have been following the state-by-state polling using a Wikipedia site that collects and tracks such data (sources for all polls are fully attributed). (FYI, I'm the "chart guy" on these sites.) I provide my personal observations of the trends for each race below.

Romney has a solid 15 point lead on everyone else, and about 30-35% of voters are still undecided.

Romney has a solid 9 point lead on everyone else, and about 30% of voters are still undecided and Thompson is showing strength.

====South Carolina====
Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-25% of the vote, and over 30% remain undecided.

Romney has a 5 point lead on Thompson and they are running neck-in-neck, and about 25% of voters are still undecided.

====New Hampshire====
Romney has a 10 point lead on everyone else, and about 20% of voters are still undecided.

Similar to South Carolina, Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-30% of the vote, and over 25% remain undecided.

Giuliani (weakening) maintains 30% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has nearly crossed the 20% mark, and about 20-25% remain undecided.

====New York====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 45% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has crossed the 10% mark, and about 25% remain undecided.

Clinton is slowly building and recently passed Edwards. Obama is within 5 points and keeping pace with Clinton. 30% remain undecided.

Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with 20-25% undecided.

====South Carolina====
Clinton leads Obama by about 5 points. About 20-25% remain undecided.

Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with about 30% undecided.

====New Hampshire====
Clinton has expanded her lead to about 15 points on Obama with about 20-30% undecided.

Clinton commands a 20% lead on Obama with about 25-30% undecided.

Clinton has a 30% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.

====New York====
Clinton has a 30-40% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.

At 4:01 PM, Blogger John said...

Why did Rudy Giuliani not think it was important to attend the Republican presidential debate tonight at Morgan State University in Baltimore, a historically black college. The debate, hosted by Tavis Smiley focussed on issues important to minority communities. Giuliani’s campaign suggested there were “important scheduling conflicts”. So, we decided to see what was more important than listening to and addressing the concern’s of African-American voters.

Giuliani’s schedule was to include campaign stops in Santa Monica, Santa Barbara and Lancaster, California. According to the Bay Area Center For Voting Research,

Lancaster, California ranks among the top 25 conservative cities in the country. It’s population is also 63% white and 16% African-American.

Clearly it was more important for Rudy to go pander to his white, conservative base in Lancaster, then to listen to and engage African-American voters nationwide.

At 8:55 AM, Blogger Tim said...

I don't know anybody that likes Rudy - and I live in New York. I know only one person that like Hillary. Ron Paul beat Rudy hands down in all the debates. Ron Paul took the straw poll vote in Rudy's hometown of NYC. So why is Rudy yet called the GOP's #1 contender? I think its all set up. It will be a Hillary/Rudy race - not that either are really wanted much by their parties.


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