Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Will California and Florida Clinch it for Rudy?

In a move that hasn't gained nearly enough attention yet, the Boston Globe reports that both California and Florida are thinking of moving up their primaries as far as the first Tuesday in February.

If so, it would dramatically alter the calculus of the early primary season. Rudy has been leading in early Florida polls by as much as 2-to-1. The state also features a huge number of New York transplants who probably voted twice for Rudy as mayor. Once solidly in purple territory, Florida is also fast becoming the heartland of new GOP, with a newly elected Republican governor (staying free and clear of the '06 tsunami), near supermajorities in the legislature, and an electoral count that will rival Texas by 2030. An early victory there would signal that Rudy has captured the heart of today's Republican Party and give him a certain measure of Southern credibility, assuming the Deep South is not as solid (and I don't expect it to be).

California in many ways has already provided a template for a Rudy victory. The 2002 primary for governor, in which Rudy-endorsed conservative Bill Simon beat moderate LA Mayor Richard Riordan, showed that the Republican primary electorate is as conservative as anywhere (not to mention Bush's victory over McCain in the 2000 primary). Arnold's resilience in the face of many of the same criticisms Rudy faces now shows that conservatives will accept a political moderate with star power. During the 2003 recall, you had the worry that conservative Tom McClintock and Arnold would nearly split the Republican vote, delivering a Democratic successor to Gray Davis. Didn't happen. Arnold received three times more votes than McClintock and won by double digits.

Perhaps it's time to refocus from South Carolina and Michigan, home of the most heated "proxy wars," and on to the big states that will not be kind to non-frontrunners (especially should FL or even CA take place on the same day as SC and MI).

(HT: Eye on '08)

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

9 Comments:

At 5:35 PM, Blogger Rob said...

SUMMARY: Unless something changes, Clinton will win the Democratic party nomination, Romney (!) will win several states that vote in January, but Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), which includes California and New York (Giuliani strongholds) will probably decide the Republican party nomination (Thompson is an X-factor).

I think Iowa (Jan. 14), Michigan (Jan. 15), South Carolina (Jan. 19/29), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22, but could move up), Florida (Jan. 29), California (Feb. 5) and New York (Feb. 5) will likely determine the Presidential candidates for November 2008. The Georgia Republican and Democratic primaries are February 5, 2008, and could be key in the GOP nomination. The Virginia and D.C. Republican and Democratic primaries are February 12, 2008, and may be a factor in the GOP nomination if Super Tuesday doesn't produce a front-runner. The Massachusetts and Texas Republican and Democratic primaries are March 4, 2008.

I have been following the state-by-state polling using a Wikipedia site that collects and tracks such data (sources for all polls are fully attributed). (FYI, I'm the "chart guy" on these sites.) I provide my personal observations of the trends for each race below.

REPUBLICANS
====Iowa====
Romney has a solid 15 point lead on everyone else, and about 30-35% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Iowa

====Michigan====
Romney has a solid 9 point lead on everyone else, and about 30% of voters are still undecided and Thompson is showing strength.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Michigan

====South Carolina====
Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-25% of the vote, and over 30% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#South_Carolina

====Nevada====
Romney has a 5 point lead on Thompson and they are running neck-in-neck, and about 25% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada

====New Hampshire====
Romney has a 10 point lead on everyone else, and about 20% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

====Florida====
Similar to South Carolina, Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-30% of the vote, and over 25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Florida

====California====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 30% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has nearly crossed the 20% mark, and about 20-25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#California

====New York====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 45% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has crossed the 10% mark, and about 25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_York


DEMOCRATS
====Iowa====
Clinton is slowly building and recently passed Edwards. Obama is within 5 points and keeping pace with Clinton. 30% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Iowa

====Michigan====
Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with 20-25% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Michigan

====South Carolina====
Clinton leads Obama by about 5 points. About 20-25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#South_Carolina

====Nevada====
Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with about 30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada

====New Hampshire====
Clinton has expanded her lead to about 15 points on Obama with about 20-30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

====Florida====
Clinton commands a 20% lead on Obama with about 25-30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Florida

====California====
Clinton has a 30% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#California

====New York====
Clinton has a 30-40% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_York

 
At 4:01 PM, Blogger John said...

Why did Rudy Giuliani not think it was important to attend the Republican presidential debate tonight at Morgan State University in Baltimore, a historically black college. The debate, hosted by Tavis Smiley focussed on issues important to minority communities. Giuliani’s campaign suggested there were “important scheduling conflicts”. So, we decided to see what was more important than listening to and addressing the concern’s of African-American voters.

Giuliani’s schedule was to include campaign stops in Santa Monica, Santa Barbara and Lancaster, California. According to the Bay Area Center For Voting Research,

Lancaster, California ranks among the top 25 conservative cities in the country. It’s population is also 63% white and 16% African-American.

Clearly it was more important for Rudy to go pander to his white, conservative base in Lancaster, then to listen to and engage African-American voters nationwide.

 
At 8:55 AM, Blogger Tim said...

I don't know anybody that likes Rudy - and I live in New York. I know only one person that like Hillary. Ron Paul beat Rudy hands down in all the debates. Ron Paul took the straw poll vote in Rudy's hometown of NYC. So why is Rudy yet called the GOP's #1 contender? I think its all set up. It will be a Hillary/Rudy race - not that either are really wanted much by their parties.

 
At 9:51 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ninest123 10.15
ralph lauren polo, uggs outlet, replica watches, chanel handbags, longchamp bags, longchamp outlet, prada outlet, michael kors outlet, burberry outlet, louboutin uk, louis vuitton outlet, prada handbags, tory burch outlet, replica watches, uggs on sale, nike free, michael kors outlet store, michael kors handbags, louis vuitton handbags, oakley sunglasses, gucci handbags, louis vuitton outlet online, cheap oakley sunglasses, louis vuitton, tiffany jewelry, louis vuitton outlet, ray ban sunglasses, longchamp outlet, oakley sunglasses, ralph lauren outlet, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet online, kate spade, christian louboutin, uggs on sale, burberry factory outlet, michael kors, nike air max, ray ban sunglasses, nike outlet, oakley sunglasses, tiffany jewelry, christian louboutin, uggs outlet, ray ban sunglasses, cheap jordans, uggs on sale, louboutin shoes

 
At 9:53 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

michael kors, new balance, nike free pas cher, nike air force, michael kors, lululemon outlet, converse, lunette oakley pas cher, timberland pas cher, true religion outlet, coach purses, lunette ray ban pas cher, nike tn pas cher, jordan pas cher, vanessa bruno pas cher, coach outlet store online, sac guess pas cher, polo ralph lauren uk, nike roshe uk, vans pas cher, mulberry uk, nike air max pas cher, ray ban uk, abercrombie and fitch, hermes pas cher, nike air max uk, coach outlet, true religion outlet, north face uk, true religion outlet, abercrombie and fitch UK, longchamp soldes, true religion jeans, north face pas cher, kate spade outlet, hogan sito ufficiale, michael kors uk, nike blazer pas cher, nike air max uk, nike free, nike air max, nike roshe run pas cher, louboutin pas cher, michael kors outlet online, burberry pas cher, ralph lauren pas cher, longchamp pas cher, polo lacoste pas cher, coach outlet

 
At 9:56 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

new balance shoes, soccer jerseys, vans scarpe, valentino shoes, ray ban, reebok outlet, abercrombie, nike roshe run, soccer shoes, beats by dre, salvatore ferragamo, polo ralph lauren, babyliss pro, nike air huarache, celine handbags, nfl jerseys, longchamp uk, ghd hair, hollister, iphone cases, converse shoes outlet, giuseppe zanotti, insanity workout, mcm handbags, mac cosmetics, herve leger, jimmy choo outlet, timberland boots, lululemon outlet, nike trainers uk, p90x workout, nike air max, hermes handbags, oakley, chi flat iron, abercrombie and fitch, vans outlet, converse, softball bats, gucci, nike air max, asics running shoes, louboutin, hollister clothing, bottega veneta, instyler ionic styler, mont blanc, north face outlet, north face outlet, wedding dresses, hollister uk, oakley sunglasses

 
At 9:56 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

new balance shoes, soccer jerseys, vans scarpe, valentino shoes, ray ban, reebok outlet, abercrombie, nike roshe run, soccer shoes, beats by dre, salvatore ferragamo, polo ralph lauren, babyliss pro, nike air huarache, celine handbags, nfl jerseys, longchamp uk, ghd hair, hollister, iphone cases, converse shoes outlet, giuseppe zanotti, insanity workout, mcm handbags, mac cosmetics, herve leger, jimmy choo outlet, timberland boots, lululemon outlet, nike trainers uk, p90x workout, nike air max, hermes handbags, oakley, chi flat iron, abercrombie and fitch, vans outlet, converse, softball bats, gucci, nike air max, asics running shoes, louboutin, hollister clothing, bottega veneta, instyler ionic styler, mont blanc, north face outlet, north face outlet, wedding dresses, hollister uk, oakley sunglasses

 
At 9:59 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

moncler uk, moncler, michael kors outlet, moncler, juicy couture outlet, supra shoes, michael kors outlet online, wedding dresses uk, canada goose, canada goose outlet, pandora jewelry, doke & gabbana, coach outlet, louis vuitton uk, sac louis vuitton, links of london uk, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, moncler pas cher, toms shoes, canada goose, barbour jackets uk, swarovski jewelry, sac louis vuitton, canada goose outlet, moncler, moncler, canada goose jackets, michael kors handbags, marc jacobs, pandora uk, moncler jackets, ugg uk, juicy couture outlet, canada goose uk, moncler outlet, barbour, pandora jewelry, hollister, thomas sabo uk, replica watches, louis vuitton, bottes ugg pas cher, pandora charms, lancel, louis vuitton, canada goose jackets, montre pas cher, swarovski uk, karen millen uk, canada goose pas cher, ugg pas cher
ninest123 10.15

 
At 1:11 AM, Blogger Minko Chen said...

tiffany and co
cheap ugg boots
valentino outlet
snapbacks wholesale
michael kors online outlet
louis vuitton outlet online
lululemon pants
air force 1 shoes
toms outlet store
chanel handbags outlet
adidas outlet
chicago blackhawks
ugg outlet online
louis vuitton bags
babyliss flat iron
rolex watches
rolex watches outlet
canada goose jackets
michael kors handbags sale
ferragamo outlet
1130minko

 

Post a Comment

<< Home