Poll Alert: American Research Group IA, NV, NH, & Yes… SC!
I have steadfastly refused to publish an American Research Group poll until they included all of the major candidates in their polling. Well, that time has arrived. These results are truly amazing…
American Research Group, 600 Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Goers, Dec 19th-23, 2006:
Rudy Giuliani 29%
John McCain 24%
Newt Gingrich 19%
Chuck Hagel 7%
Mitt Romney 7%
Sam Brownback 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%
George Pataki -
Duncan Hunter -
Tommy Thompson -
Jim Gilmore -
Undecided 12%
Yes, you read that correctly. Rudy Giuliani is up by 5 pts. on John McCain and Mitt Romney is tied with Chuck Hagel (of course, the margin of error is 4 pts.)
American Research Group, 600 Likely Nevada Republican Caucus Goers, Dec. 19th-23, 2006:
Rudy Giuliani 31%
John McCain 25%
Newt Gingrich 22%
Mitt Romney 4%
Sam Brownback -
Jim Gilmore -
Chuck Hagel -
Mike Huckabee -
Duncan Hunter -
George Pataki -
Tommy Thompson -
Undecided 18%
American Research Group, 600 Likely New Hampshire Republican Primary Voters (79% GOP-21% Independent), Dec 19th-23, 2006:
John McCain 29%
Rudy Giuliani 25%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Mitt Romney 9%
Chuck Hagel 2%
George Pataki 2%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Sam Brownback -
Duncan Hunter -
Tommy Thompson -
Undecided 17%
And now for the big one…
American Research Group, 600 Likely South Carolina Republican Primary Voters, Dec.19th-23, 2006:
John McCain 35%
Rudy Giuliani 28%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mitt Romney 5%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Jim Gilmore -
Chuck Hagel -
Duncan Hunter-
George Pataki -
Tommy Thompson -
Undecided 16%
The margin of error for all of these polls is 4%. So basically we have Rudy ahead of McCain above the margin of error in Iowa and Nevada. Within the margin of error with McCain in New Hampshire, and down by 7% in SC.
This is the 3rd poll of likely Iowa Republican Caucus goers that shows Rudy leading in Iowa.
posted by Kavon W. Nikrad @ 6:11 PM
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4 Comments:
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Surprising that Romney's not breaking single digits anywhere. Even in a Western state like NV where the LDS numbers are substantial (almost 8% of Nevadans are LDS - yet only half are going for Mitt???) and his name is better known out there because of Salt Lake Olympic Committee.
Romney's got a very short window to get serious traction and lots of dough or he'll be the first man out after August's Iowa Straw Polls, a la Lamar Alexander in 99.
Strangely silent over here about the NY Daily News leak article.
SUMMARY: Unless something changes, Clinton will win the Democratic party nomination, Romney (!) will win several states that vote in January, but Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), which includes California and New York (Giuliani strongholds) will probably decide the Republican party nomination (Thompson is an X-factor).
I think Iowa (Jan. 14), Michigan (Jan. 15), South Carolina (Jan. 19/29), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22, but could move up), Florida (Jan. 29), California (Feb. 5) and New York (Feb. 5) will likely determine the Presidential candidates for November 2008. The Georgia Republican and Democratic primaries are February 5, 2008, and could be key in the GOP nomination. The Virginia and D.C. Republican and Democratic primaries are February 12, 2008, and may be a factor in the GOP nomination if Super Tuesday doesn't produce a front-runner. The Massachusetts and Texas Republican and Democratic primaries are March 4, 2008.
I have been following the state-by-state polling using a Wikipedia site that collects and tracks such data (sources for all polls are fully attributed). (FYI, I'm the "chart guy" on these sites.) I provide my personal observations of the trends for each race below.
REPUBLICANS
====Iowa====
Romney has a solid 15 point lead on everyone else, and about 30-35% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Iowa
http://tinyurl.com/34lhwf
====Michigan====
Romney has a solid 9 point lead on everyone else, and about 30% of voters are still undecided and Thompson is showing strength.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Michigan
http://tinyurl.com/34lhwf
====South Carolina====
Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-25% of the vote, and over 30% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#South_Carolina
http://tinyurl.com/34lhwf
====Nevada====
Romney has a 5 point lead on Thompson and they are running neck-in-neck, and about 25% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada
http://tinyurl.com/34lhwf
====New Hampshire====
Romney has a 10 point lead on everyone else, and about 20% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire
http://tinyurl.com/34lhwf
====Florida====
Similar to South Carolina, Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-30% of the vote, and over 25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Florida
http://tinyurl.com/34lhwf
====California====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 30% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has nearly crossed the 20% mark, and about 20-25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#California
http://tinyurl.com/34lhwf
====New York====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 45% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has crossed the 10% mark, and about 25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_York
http://tinyurl.com/34lhwf
DEMOCRATS
====Iowa====
Clinton is slowly building and recently passed Edwards. Obama is within 5 points and keeping pace with Clinton. 30% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Iowa
http://tinyurl.com/yrcn9x
====Michigan====
Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with 20-25% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Michigan
http://tinyurl.com/yrcn9x
====South Carolina====
Clinton leads Obama by about 5 points. About 20-25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#South_Carolina
http://tinyurl.com/yrcn9x
====Nevada====
Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with about 30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada
http://tinyurl.com/yrcn9x
====New Hampshire====
Clinton has expanded her lead to about 15 points on Obama with about 20-30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire
http://tinyurl.com/yrcn9x
====Florida====
Clinton commands a 20% lead on Obama with about 25-30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Florida
http://tinyurl.com/yrcn9x
====California====
Clinton has a 30% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#California
http://tinyurl.com/yrcn9x
====New York====
Clinton has a 30-40% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_York
http://tinyurl.com/yrcn9x
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