Why Rudy Will Win

I read The Hotline. I pay attention when Straight Talk America snags another top operative or fundraiser. I bang my head against the wall the obvious opportunities Rudy's people seem to be missing.

And every time my faith in the enterprise begins to waver, something big happens to renew it. Today was such a day.

The Bilbray brouhaha may seem like inside baseball, and it is. But it is precisely in the realm of inside baseball that McCain has cultivated the image of prohibitive frontrunner. As a pragmatist apt to embrace prohibitive frontrunners, I can't describe the intuitive revulsion I feel whenever someone mouths this staggeringly incorrect McCain-boosterism.

Today proved that McCain is the most radioactive Republican politician within the Republican Party in terms that Beltway insiders can understand. Taking positions at odds with the base is one thing. Falling down on your most basic duties as a potential party leader (that means supporting your candidates in close races, whether they're named Tancredo or Chafee, no questions asked) takes it to a different dimension. Radioactive politicians don't get nominated. It would be like Joe Lieberman winning the 2004 Democratic nomination. No matter how many people say it's going to happen, it Simply. Is. Not. Going. To. Happen.

Unless there are no viable alternatives and the party is dragged kicking and screaming into it. And if the media wakes up one day and decides to hate John McCain like they eventually turned on George Bush, we're talking a Hillary landslide.

Enter Rudy Giuliani.

McCain-mania is based on the proposition that Republicans will need a little something extra, and someone different, to hold on to the White House for a third consecutive term. The problem is that McCain shreds the party from the inside out -- and now we find that he can't or won't show up in reliably Republican districts for fear of hurting the candidate he's supposed to be helping (has Mr. 29 Percent Approval ever cancelled a fundraiser like this?)

Giuliani brings all of McCain's alleged strengths to the table and none of his crushing liabilities. (Before you mention abortion, ask yourself this: does it outweigh immigration?) Noah Millman has got this exactly right: "McCain is doing with immigration-restrictionists exactly what he did with Christian conservatives in 2000. He'll probably figure out his mistake right about two years too late."

The good news for McCain is that only someone "like McCain" can beat Hillary. The bad news is that someone else "like McCain" is very much in the thick of things. A political opportunity of epic scope exists to nominate a maverick not named John McCain who beats Hillary Clinton.

I know it's hard to believe, but this thing is Rudy's if he wants it.

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Giuliani a Top GOP Fundraiser

From The Hill. When it comes to raking in the dough for key candidates, the order of battle is POTUS, VPOTUS, FLOTUS... and Rudy.

“There is a pecking order to this, with the president at the top, the VP right near that. The first lady has taken a more active role, and she’s able to make things more successful,” the strategist said. “Most campaigns across the country would be asking for the president to do a fundraiser, especially this far out” in the election cycle.

Just below Mrs. Bush in the pecking order, the strategist added, is former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, now a political consultant and partner at law and lobbying firm Bracewell & Giuliani. His leadership PAC, Solutions America, has contributed so far this cycle to Ferguson, Rep. John Sweeney (R-N.Y.), NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.) and Michael Steele, the Maryland lieutenant governor seeking the Senate seat of retiring Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.).

No mention made of any other '08 candidate. Perhaps that's not so surprising.

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On the Road: Wisconsin and Dallas

Fresh off his near-win in the Wisconsin GOP straw poll, it was announced today that Rudy Giuliani will be campaigning with gubernatorial candidate Mark Green.

The Mayor is also traveling to Dallas, Texas, where he will speak to the Chamber of Commerce and "is expected to meet with potential financial supporters." Hope he has better luck than McCain, who had to disinvite his Dallas co-hosts from an event after he discovered the year old news they were under investigation for tax evasion.

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McCain Cancels GOP Fundraiser in Critical District

A nice contrast today. It concerns the company McCain keeps.

Brian Bilbray is in a dogfight of a Congressional race in a traditionally Republican district represented by Duke Cunningham until his resignation. He needs all the help he can get. He also happens to disagree with the Senate immigration bill passed last week.

John McCain had been scheduled in town to raise critical last minute funds for Bilbray's campaign. Until today, when McCain suddenly cancelled, apparently in retaliation for Bilbray's opposition to McCain's work on immigration reform.

What does it say for the Senator can't step into a Republican district without bitterly dividing the party? Or that he is withdrawing from a fundraiser in a fit of pique over the candidate's disagreement on one issue. It says that not only isn't he a big tent candidate, if he somehow gets the nomination, he would split the party in two.

Do you see Rudy Giuliani cancelling events with pro-life candidates? Quite the opposite.

Meanwhile, McCain has no problem siddling up to Harry Reid at Vegas boxing matches.

Let's hope the news cycle of bad stories McCain has just inflicted on Bilbray won't lead to the loss of a safe Republican seat. You can contribute to Bilbray here.

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Bloomberg Endorses Gay Marriage. Does It Help Rudy?

Nobody ever said that Rudy's record on gay rights would be a plus in a Republican primary, but might he look good in contrast to his successor?

Mayor Bloomberg landed another left on the right yesterday, coming out strongly in favor of gay marriage - and vowing the city will perform same-sex wedding ceremonies, if allowed.

The Republican mayor used his weekly Sunday radio address on Memorial Day weekend to say he is "firmly opposed" to any constitutional amendment outlawing same-sex marriage.

President Bush and other prominent Republicans endorse the Federal Marriage Amendment, which defines marriage as between a man and a woman. The measure is set for a Senate vote next month.

"The U.S. Constitution should be something that unites, rather than divides Americans," said Bloomberg, a life-long Democrat who joined the GOP to run for mayor in 2001.

"I do not believe that government should be in the business of telling people who they can and can't marry," he added during the address on 1010 WINS.

I'm personally hoping for a falling out between Bloomberg and Giuliani. George W. Bush was helped by the tiff with Tom Pauken, the Texas GOP chair who was constantly ripping on the governor for selling out conservatives. Here's what that conflict said about Bush: "I'm not a scary extremist. I'm a different kind of Republican."

On gay marriage, Mike is pro and Rudy is anti. By allowing some distance to grow between them, Rudy can send a low-information signal that "I'm not a liberal Republican like Bloomberg. I'm the most conservative Mayor in New York history." (Which is not a stretch, considering the pedigree of La Guardia, Lindsay, and Bloomberg.)

Ideally, Bloomberg will endorse Hillary Clinton for re-election and say nice things about her during the primaries. He'll be set up as the "kinder, gentler Giuliani" leaving people -- especially conservatives -- longing for the original. Better still, Mike will get his wish and actually officiate at a gay marriage ceremony, while Rudy will protest this egregious act of judicial activism.

Technorati tags: Rudy Giuliani Giuliani Mike Bloomberg Bloomberg gay marriage

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New Batch of Strategic Vision Polls: FL +9, MI -14, WA +6

Florida:

7. Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 40%
John McCain 31%
George Allen 7%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 9%

Michigan:

18. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)
John McCain 38%
Rudy Giuliani 24%
Mitt Romney 15%
Newt Gingrich 4%
George Allen 3%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 11%

Big Romney factor at work here folks. What do you want to bet he takes mostly from Rudy?

And Washington state:

18. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)
Rudy Giuliani 36%
John McCain 30%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 4%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Allen 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 16%

Where the Condi question is asked, she takes mostly from McCain.

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Rudy Giuliani Turns 62 Today

The next President celebrates his birthday today.

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Return to the Garden? NYC in the Final Four for 2008 Convention

Per Hugh Hewitt, the 2008 Republican National Convention will be held in one of four cities:

Cleveland
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Tampa-St. Petersburg
New York City

Which one of these is not like the others?

Three of these cities represent swing states. One of them represents symbolism and synergy. Two of the last three times, the GOP has opted for a swing state strategy (San Diego & Philadelphia). Both times, the Conventions failed to give their nominees significant headway in the convention states.

Then the RNC went to New York, a choice which reinforced the party's core message on terrorism even if didn't they have a prayer of winning the state. The Convention resonated nationally and George W. Bush got an eleven point bounce, the most successful convention performance since Bill Clinton (at the Garden) in '92, considering Kerry's dismal bounce from his convention.

In 2008, the Republicans could return to New York. The memory of 9/11 will have faded somewhat -- but symbolism and synergy will be abundant should the nominee be one Rudy Giuliani. It would be a hometown coronation, yes. But the week would also be dedicated to showcasing success stories in the city Rudy brought back from the brink. Like 2004, NYC 2008 would inherently reinforce the campaign's message.

Plus, because the Convention has already been there once before (and it could be coming back from an encore), it would be that much harder to indict Rudy as "too New York" to be nominated. If C0nvention delegates and party poo-bahs actually like New York, and the rank-and-file responded well to 2004's New York convention, being from New York isn't a liability (unless you're dull, uninspiring, and unaccomplished like George Pataki).

Technorati tags: Rudy Giuliani Giuliani RNC2008 New York

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Presidential Body Language

From the Daily News:

Rudy Giuliani seemed to be trying out his presidential body language Wednesday night during the American Jewish Committee's black-tie gala at the Waldorf.

Pacing the stage like a hungry lion, America's Mayor - the keynote speaker - didn't need a lectern or a TelePrompTer, or even notes, as he gave his polite audience a stout justification of President Bush's war in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"Both military actions were successful in achieving their objectives," Hiz-exonner claimed. "Both governments in both places are in better condition today than they were five or six years ago."

And he slammed Bill Clinton and previous Presidents. "Terrorist acts would take place, kind of showing us the signals of Sept. 11. ... Sometimes we would react. ... Sometimes we wouldn't react at all."

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Solutions America FEC Report

Note to Googlers: If you're looking for Solutions America PAC, here is a link to their official web site. You can also show Rudy Giuliani you want him to run in 2008 by making a secure online contribution.

The editors of The Hotline continue to push the theory that Rudy Giuliani won't run for President. Chuck Todd's odd obsession with the notion that Giuliani would choose making $40 million over being the most powerful man on the face of the planet is frankly clouding his judgment. That said, On Call does bring up some interesting disbursements in the Solutions America (the Mayor's PAC) April FEC report:

FUNDRAISING CONSULTANT $25,000
1 PURCHASE COMPUTER EQUIPMENT $21,423
1 COMPLIANCE CONSULTANT $3,750
1 PURCHASE TELECOM EQUIPMENT $2,499
1 RENT $1,717
1 TELECOM CONSULTANT/LEASE PHONES $1,577
1 CONTRACT LABOR-ADMINISTRATIVE WORK $430

The full report is here, though actually, it's all pretty much laid out by those seven lines. The fundraising consultant is Anne Dickerson, director of Rangers and Pioneers for BC04. The computer equipment and phone buys are interesting, suggesting an incoming staff of about 15. (The May report should be very instructive.)

Poring over the last few months of reports (I don't know why this didn't occur to me earlier), this represents a significant ramp up at least on the clerical side of getting a pre-campaign up and running. This is the first time Solutions America has paid for office space since last November. And the only personnel they've paid is Ryan Medrano, who handles their FEC compliance.

The April '06 ramp up represents something more than a resumption of the previous level of activity. Take a look at Solutions America's expenditures in September '04 -- the height of Rudy's political activity in the last presidential election. It includes a whopping total of two budget line items and five contributions to Senate candidates and the RNC. No payroll. No phone bill. No five figure payouts to fundraising consultants.

As for Solutions America's contributions for the '06 cycle, they most recently sent a check to the Michigan Republican Party's federal account. Other candidates supported include Mark Kennedy (MN-SEN), Peter King (NY-03), Vito Fossella (NY-13), John Sweeney (NY-20) and Michael Steele (MD-SEN).

Sure, this represents a late start. But that doesn't mean he's not running. In The Prince of the City, Fred Siegel talks about how Rudy never seemed to be all that engaged in the 2000 Senate race, even as an official candidate. In the end, he wound up withdrawing for reasons other than a lack of fire in the belly. But after reading that, Rudy's behavior to date hasn't surprised me at all.

Technorati tags: Rudy Giuliani Giuliani FEC

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Want '08 to Look Like '06? Nominate McCain

This is just ridiculous:

What's next--are we going to say work-authorized immigrants are going to have to ride in the back of the bus?

Video here.

That's what John McCain has to say about an amendment that would have limited access to the Earned Income Tax Credit by illegal aliens. Oppose border enforcement -- fine. But likening the majority of Republican Senators to segregationists?

McCain just confirmed his status as the most divisive figure within the Republican Party. Sorry, but I'm going with a guy who can unify the party and make us feel good to be Republicans again: Rudy.

Want '08 to be as demoralizing as '06? Nominate John McCain. Fed up with Washington? Then nominate Rudy. President Bush appointed two solidly conservative Supreme Court Justices, deposed two tyrannical regimes, and cut taxes three times -- and conservatives still aren't happy with him. If you think "Jorge Arbusto" is bad, can you imagine the horror show that would be John McCain?

Technorati tags:
John McCain McCain immigration

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Rudy=Taylor Hicks?

I find politics-pop culture parallels hugely fascinating. That doesn't mean I understand them. For that we have Swamp Pundette.

Keying off JPod, Swamp Pundette has a great analysis of how American Idol picks track politically. Though I'm not sure if her one Rudy reference ("In polling across the nation, Rudolph Giuliani performs phenomenally...even among conservatives") is a blessing or a curse (how many an early Idol frontrunner got the boot?), I am going to extend her Idol theory to Rudy: to win, you have to be authentic and interesting. At the end of the day, authenticity trumps focus-grouped phonies from central casting:

For the '08 crowd, there are a lot of lessons to be learned from this season's American Idol. First, America has no tolerance for the boring. The entire first group whacked from Idol's 24 were largely bland and unmemorable. If people aren't intrigued, you can be authentic as the day is long and people will change the channel. Second, being a niche candidate will only get you so far. Tom Tancredo, I'm talking to you. Two words for you: Kevin Covais. Finally, however, America can spot a panderer. If the GOP nomination showdown comes to a tested-and-perfected Kellie Pickler of a Dubya-Lite (Allen) and an independent thinker who might not always get it right but who America feels they can trust (McCain? [Giuliani? -ed.]), the choice will be clear.

Taylor Hicks couldn't kick a mic stand. But he was real. And tonight, he will be crowned an American Idol.

An ex-Mayor from the fever swamp of New York City as the Republican nominee? Yes -- because he's real. Just like W. And Reagan.

These are words I'll have to eat if in a few moments Katharine McPhee is crowned an Idol.

UPDATE: Nope. My Rudy=Taylor comparison stands!

Technorati tags: Taylor Hicks Rudy Giuliani Giuliani American Idol

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FIREWALL: +21 in the Sunshine State

From its large populations of New York transplants, security moms, anti-tyrannical thug Cubans, and urbanized Southerners, Florida would make an attractive firewall state for Rudy, if only it would manage to move up its primary.

A new Quinnipiac survey bears this out: Rudy 46, McCain-Kennedy 25.

Technorati tags: Rudy Giuliani Giuliani Florida

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Conservatives Don't Heart McCain; Observer Shocked

So, the Observer publishes this piece revealing inside conversations McCain has held with well-heeled New York donors. In the piece, McCain trashes conservative talk show hosts like Rush Limbaugh. Conservatives respond. And the New York Observer is shocked to find the depth of mistrust for McCain among people who vote in GOP primaries out in the heartland, admitting that "they are opinions that, to be frank, we don't hear much in the blue capital."

Well, it's about dang time they showed some self-awareness about their McCain myopia. Now, if we can only get Charlie Cook, Chuck Todd, and Marc Ambinder to admit the same thing. Part of the surprise is that these emails "don't exactly wash with McCain position atop the polls." But here's the thing: McCain isn't atop the polls -- Rudy is. Ask these same anti-McCain activists if they'd be fine with the pro-choice Rudy, and at least two thirds will say yes, and a sizeable percentage would say that they're voting for the man. So, advantage: Giuliani. Plus, those polls currently draw from a much broader sample than the 10-15% of the voting population that votes in Republican primaries. With this unique dynamic faced by McCain, drilling down to get activist opinion is critical, and it isn't being done in polls.

The McCain-Giuliani dynamic is like a sandwich: McCain gets the upper crust of Beltway elites and soggy lower crust of "he sounds good" moderates who don't vote in primaries. All the outside-the-Beltway meat in between is Rudy.

Seriously, why does this feel like a Pauline Kael moment? A McCain triumph with so much blood in the water, especially with Rudy in, is about as likely as Al Gore finding Manbearpig.

Technorati tags: John McCain McCain Observer Chuck Todd

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Wyly McCain

Has John McCain just experienced an authenticity-breaking moment?

Hotline On Call reports that Straight Talk America has returned a $20,000 from Sam and Charles Wyly. Why do those names sound vaguely familiar? Well, for one thing, who could forget the huge "Republicans for Clean Air" independent expenditure the Wylys launched to bury McCain in the 2000 New York primary?

But it doesn't stop there.

On Call tells us that once the STA finance people noticed the investigation, returned the money, and disinvited the Wylys from the May 15th STA reception in Dallas. Two things here.

1) When did the McCain folks know they had a problem? Because news of the Wyly investigation is not exactly, um, news. It was featured in a DNC press release and in a Dallas Morning News article as far back as early June 2005.

2) The Wylys didn't just write a check. They were on the host committee. Okay, so McCain accepts the money and has to return it. Happens all the time. But the Wylys were actually co-hosts of the event, which means that Straight Talk America actively worked with them to corral checks for the event. So, McCain invites these two former enemies to raise money for him, after their dicey legal status is public knowledge. We knew McCain's Ranger and Pioneer outreach was aggressive, but courting two guys who he filed a Federal complaint against, while they face the real threat of indictment...?

Who's whoring worse, McCain or the Wylys? Does it matter? The white knight of campaign finance reform, the man who would compromise the First Amendment itself at the altar of ethical purity, is getting to be an awfully cheap date.

This kind of hypocrisy can kill authenticity. And without conservative base mojo, "authenticity" is all McCain's got.

Technorati tags: John McCain McCain corruption

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The Da Victory Code: Rudy Becoming the Guy to Beat?

The folks over at the N.Y. Observer's PoliTicker have banned me from posting on their blog. Well, banned may to be too strong a word, but they certainly didn't foresee the possibility that there might be someone else out there who understands with metaphysical certainty that McCain-Kennedy will never be the nominee, and that Rudy is the guy to stop him. As it happens, a few other commenters gave voice to the RudyBlogger Thesis of 2008, so they didn't need me.

However, if I were to make an extended argument against The Politicker's snarky inferences, one need look no farther than today's big Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll for clues hidden in plain sight. Let's call it The Da Victory Code.

Clue #1: Is McCain-Kennedy slipping in general election matchups against Hillary? I think it's too early to say for sure, but Rudy does pull down a 9 point lead vs. Hillary (49 to 40), while Fox makes McCain-Kennedy's inside-the-margin lead (46 to 42) of 4 points the lede.

On the blogs and at the New School, McCain-Kennedy is quickly being transformed into a hate figure of the modern left. It's impossible to say how quickly these opinions are being transferred to rank-and-file Democrats, but if we see Rudy running better in two or three more polls, then I'd say it's a trend.

At a minimum, the Left's vitriolic response to McCain-Kennedy shows the sheer folly of attempting to fake your party affiliation for six years, making this phantasmic persona the basis of your appeal, doing a 180, and then hoping no one notices.

Clue #2: Rudy is More Popular Than McCain-Kennedy.

McCain-Kennedy's favorables recently took a dive, to 49-25. Look at the recent trend (from the PDF):

Fav Unfav Not sure Never Heard
16-18 May 06 49% 25 18 7
7-8 Feb 06 54% 18 19 9
13-14 Dec 05 56% 18 18 7
30-31 Aug 05 57% 15 18 10

Now look at Rudy's numbers:

Rudy Giuliani
16-18 May 06 64% 15 15 6
7-8 Feb 06 64% 15 15 6
13-14 Dec 05 64% 12 16 8
1-2 Mar 05 69% 14 13 4

Rudy has consistently polled in the mid-60s favorables, about 10 points higher than McCain. Additionally, his unfavorable number is 5 points below McCain's baseline and 10 points below McCain in the most recent poll.

Clue #3: Rudy is More Popular Than McCain-Kennedy -- Among God-fearing, Bible-thumping, Conservative Republicans.

The head-to-head numbers provide some interesting fodder:

Hillary Clinton John McCain (Other/Don’t know)
16-18 May 06 42% 46 13
Democrats 72% 19 9
Republicans 7% 79 14
Independents 38% 46 16

Hillary Clinton Rudy Giuliani (Other/Don’t know)
16-18 May 06 40% 49 12
Democrats 71% 20 9
Republicans 4% 86 9
Independents 37% 48 16

McCain-Kennedy doesn't break 80 against Republicans vs. Hillary, and fully 14 percent remain undecided. Rudy leads her 86 to 4.

The notion that conservatives will hold their nose and pick McCain-Kennedy assumes that he stands an equal chance of beating her as Rudy does. What happens to this calculus as McCain -Kennedy fritters away his goodwill with Democrats and Independents, and starts falling down in head-to-head matchups with Hillary? It begets a vicious circle where conservatives are even less likely to support him because they don't think he can win.

Conservatives aren't dumb. They understand the only way McCain wins is by selling them out. And once they realize that Allen is toast in the general and Romney is at best an outside shot, they are left with one choice.

Rudolph W. Giuliani.

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Rudy Acknowledges Co-Frontrunner Status, Says He'll Decide After '06

The Boston Herald caught up with Rudy Giuliani following his commencement address at Suffolk University Law School. The Mayor had this to say:

He is bemused that a book by New York Post columnist John Podhoretz is predicated on the notion that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) is on an inexorable march to the White House and that he might be the only Republican on the planet who can stop her.

“Hillary does look like the front runner at the moment,” Giuliani said in an interview. “I guess McCain and I share that role in our party. But she seems to have it all to herself right now.”

Only belatedly does he think to mention Sen. John Kerry or the retooled Al Gore.

McCain may be already off and running, but Giuliani is working on his own timetable.

“First we have to get through ’06, and it’s going to be very tight,” he said of the congressional elections. Oh, he’s been out and about making appearances for candidates and fundraising in North Carolina, Georgia, California. Sure it’s the right thing to do, but it also doesn’t hurt to collect those chits if a year from now - and that is his time frame - America’s mayor turns presidential contender.

“I’ll approach it from this point of view,” he said, “whether I can make a significant contribution.

“It will also depend on what the issues are a year from now,” he added, noting that voters look for different qualities in their leaders, depending on those issues.

And it is also - as it is for every potential contender - about the money.

“It’s easier to campaign for other people and to raise money for other people than to do it for yourself,” he said.

And any presidential run is a matter of “can you put together an organization to run and to raise the totally absurd amounts of money you need to give yourself a real chance.”

If John McCain is as clueless about the blogopshere as he sounds, Rudy will have the edge online. And in a close contest, every bit counts.

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Giuliani Commences

Caught this snippet of Mayor Giuliani's commencement address to law students in Boston. (It apparently went more smoothly than ceremonies at the New School.)

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani couldn't resist a quip about the New York Yankees when he spoke at Suffolk Law School commencement in Boston.

Then he told the future lawyers what he learned as a federal prosecutor.

"You have to know what you stand for. You have to have a set of principles," Giuliani said. "If you don't know what you stand for, you cannot lead other people."

The two-term mayor said he learned how to lead by copying other leaders: President Ronald Reagan, football coach Vince Lombardi and Lloyd McMahon, a judge he clerked for as a young lawyer.

Giuliani, considered a potential 2008 Republican candidate for president, recalled looking up at the World Trade Centers on Sept. 11, 2001 and seeing human being jumping from the 100th floor.

"I said to myself, 'We're not prepared for this. We don't have a plan for this,"' Giuliani said. "We had all of these plans, 20, 25 emergency plans. But we didn't have one for airplanes being uses as missiles attacking our buildings."

That day Giuliani leaned on the sage advice of Lloyd. The judge had told him to prepare for everything he could think of, and then he would be prepared for anything.

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Charlie Cook Call Your Office: Even Freepers Like Rudy Over McCain

Charlie Cook and the BDBM (Brain-Dead Beltway Media) say there's no way for a pro-abortion rights, pro-gay rights Repujblican to win the nomination. It's not a conclusion with which I agree, but if you're going to believe that, at least be consistent and also admit that a pro-amnesty, pro-tax RINO like John McCain has no chance.

Instead, the BDBM clings to this asisine notion that while Rudy is all hyped-up name ID, John McCain is the savior the Republican Party needs right now!! And if abortion is the only thing we think about (Republicans apparently don't care about taxes, the "torture" myth, the First Amendment, Kyoto, or other trifling matters), you'd expect the Freepers, the staunchest defenders of orthodoxy, to give voice to the McCain yes, Rudy no analysis.

This Freeper thread on the brilliant Ryan Sager piece from Friday gives lie to this notion. Now, to be fair, this group isn't thrilled by either Rudy or McCain. But Rudy seems far more acceptable to them. A sizeable percentage say they'd abandon the party if McCain were the nominee. A smaller subset say that about Giuliani. Not a single one says they's support McCain over Rudy.

Some sample comments for the edification of Charlie Cook, Chuck Todd, and Chris Matthews:

Given the choice between the 2, I would have said McCain. That is, until this week and his total support for shamnesty. This so called "economic conservative" even had the gall to vote for Social Security benefits for illegals.

McCain is DQed in my book. If the primary comes down to those 2, I'm voting for Giuliani.

* * *

Rudy is suboptimal on social issues. However, he is a proven leader, deadly serious on the WOT, and doesn't have McCain's toxic prima donna personality. I'd vote for Rudy anyday over McCaniac.

* * *

I long ago gave up on McCain- now I will work against him in primary season. Rudy will have a tough time with a lot of conservatives- but he's miles ahead of McCain in my book. Although I've not heard his take on illegal immigrants yet- he has proven leadership abilities- and he's strong on the WOT.

I'm not one to throw the baby out with the bathwater- I'll support Rudy if it comes to him.

* * *

I understand your point about abortion, but how anti-abortion do you think McCain is? My guess is that if he get into the White House he'll become pro-choice or neutral on abortion as soon as it suits his politics.

As Least Rudy G. is a sincere Catholic. He believes that abortion should be rare but the government should butt out. I don't think McCain believes in anything except himself.

* * *

We can all go down to the basement and attempt to build the perfect Republican candidate.

Or we can choose between the only two Republicans, McCain and Giuliani, who can win in 2008. One of whom, Giuliani, may be exactly what the times require.

Or we can anticipate all the fun we will have on FreeRepublic post the 2008 election complaining about the Democrat President.

* * *

I would vote for Rudi. Not for McCain.

* * *

It doesn't matter if the president is pro-choice etc. because it's the congress that makes the laws. The major problem with be with the USSC, but if two more slots are filled in the next two years, it won't matter who is president. That way we can pick the person who will be strong on national security and immigration.

I'll tell you right now, in a choice between Rudy and McCain? No choice at all, I'd vote Rudy.

* * *

Rudi is tough on crime and demands government accountability. IMHO, Ruid is GW with a backbone and none of the "new tone" comedy. McInsane would be owned by the MSM. The traitor McShame isn't going anywhere.

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Allen, Giuliani On Top in Wisconsin GOP Straw Poll

The Mayor came out strong in this weekend's 2008 straw poll taken at the Wisconsin GOP convention. The state party actively discouraged participation in the WisPolitics.com poll -- so it probably didn't see as much busing and ballot-stuffing as the poo-bah sanctioned Memphis straw poll. Nonetheless, 357 convention-goers participated, and Rudy was just one vote shy of 1st place finisher George Allen:

**Which possible 2008 presidential candidate do you currently favor?
_ George Allen, 61 - 17%
_ Rudy Giuliani, 60 - 17%
_ Newt Gingrich, 53 - 15%
_ Condi Rice, 50 - 14%
_ Mitt Romney, 40 - 11%
_ John McCain, 37 - 10%
_ Sam Brownback, 11 - 3%
_ Bill Frist, 8 - 2%
_ Tom Tancredo, 8 - 2%
_ George Pataki, 4 - 1%
_ Mike Huckabee, 2 - 1%
_ Chuck Hagel, 1 - 0%
_ Write In, 7 - 2%
No response, 15 - 4%

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SV Jersey Poll: Rudy +16/+20 w/Condi

From Strategic Vision:

16. Who would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 46%
John McCain 30%
Mitt Romney 5%
Newt Gingrich 4%
George Pataki 3%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Allen 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 7%

With Condi:

19. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008 with Condoleezza Rice included? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 39%
John McCain 19%
Condoleezza Rice 18%
Newt Gingrich 3%
George Pataki 2%
Mitt Romney 2%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Allen 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 12%

Other interesting notes should we be faced with the scenario too terrible to even contemplate (Rudy doesn't run). Again, undecided balloons by 20 points without Rudy in the race, and Condi comes within 5 of catching McCain without Rudy. Once again, we see large numbers of voters in a Strategic Vision survey casting affirmative pro-Rudy votes, and shopping for an alternative to McCain.

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Ryan Sager Gets It

And if he has anything to do with it, readers of Real Clear Politics and his book will get it too. The central paradox of 2008 according to Sager is this:

McCain agrees with the Religious Right on most things, but they hate him. Giuliani disagrees with the Religious Right on most things, but they (at least for now) love him.

Sager is good enough to share with us some subscriber only polling data that bolsters our suspicions about where Rudy's support is coming from:

Who is supporting Giuliani vs. McCain?

There are some important ideological distinctions among the potential GOP candidates. Giuliani is known as a conservative on crime and national security, but supports abortion and gay rights. McCain has a reputation for being a "moderate" but has a mostly conservative voting record, particularly on economic and social issues. Other candidates are even further to the political right.

Given these differences, it is interesting to focus on candidate preferences according to Republicans' personal ideology.

Gallup finds some slight differences in the vote choice of "conservative" and "moderate" Republicans. Giuliani leads McCain by a 31%-to-26% margin among self-described Republican conservatives. By contrast, McCain has a slight edge over Giuliani among "moderate" Republicans, 38% to 33%. Neither of these leads is statistically significant given the margin of error associated with the small sample sizes of these subgroups.

Giuliani the moderate leads amongst conservatives. McCain the conservative leads amongst moderates. I would say this is fairly convincing evidence that voters -- even primary voters -- value attributes over issues. Despite agreeing with them on a checklist of issues, McCain is widely distrusted among the conservative base because of his numerous apostasies and zig-zags dating back to his 2000 primary run. (If you think it's unpleasant now with W. and the base, wait till President McCain.)

Sager doesn't discount Giuliani, and basically confirms my operating assumption that if Rudy threads the needle right, he can keep the SoCons in his corner. It'll be difficult, but not impossible:

At least for the Republican primary, the question seems to be this: What will win out among conservative primary voters? Emotion (they like Giuliani) or cold, hard calculation (they can’t stand McCain, but he has the right positions)?

Of course, there could be some other candidate to come and swoop in and grab the conservative vote. But no one’s gotten to it yet. And, amazingly, Rudy seems to have a pretty decent chance of locking that vote down early -- if he plays his cards right and develops the right policy platform.

Emotion or cold calculation? I wouldn't underestimate the power of emotion in politics: Reagan, W. on 9/11, and now Rudy.

It's a jump ball in '08, concludes Sager:

This is still a wide-open race, the most wide-open Republican primary since 1964 -- that’s how conservative movement historian Lee Edwards pegged it when I interviewed him for my book. Things are going to get really, really interesting.

Yup! And things should prove especially interesting 'round these parts, since we're on board with the most misunderestimated candidate of the '08 cycle.

Make sure you pre-order Sager's book, The Elephant in the Room: Libertarians, the Christian Right, and the Battle for the Republican Party.

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Giuliani "A Great Conservative"

That's the headline from today's Ralph Reed fundraiser -- from Ralph's introduction. At the event, Giuliani came out strongly against gay marriage:

"I believe that marriage should be between a man and a woman, that it should remain that way, it should remain that way inviolate, and everything should be done to make sure that that's the case," Mr. Giuliani said in response to a reporter's question. "But I also believe that you should allow for the protection of legal rights for people who are gay and lesbian."

Effectively, there's no daylight between Rudy and President Bush on this issue.

As we've noted before, Rudy's visit was touted very prominently by the Reed campaign. Just look what happens when you mouse-over the Giuliani invite on RalphReed.com.

Don't look for Ralph to be jumping on the McCain bandwagon anytime soon. Here's what he said about him in 2000, when he helped George W. Bush win the South Carolina primary:

Ralph Reed, former executive director of the Christian Coalition and a consultant to Republican front-runner George W. Bush's campaign, said pro-life constituents accounted for 40 percent to 45 percent of the vote in South Carolina's Republican primary in 1996.

"It's going to have a huge impact," Mr. Reed said. "If you're losing that constituency three-, four-or five-to-one, it's very difficult to win that primary."...

Mr. Reed said Mr. McCain's "secular-style" campaign and his $506 billion tobacco legislation last year are not good omens for him in early Southern primary states like South Carolina and Georgia.

"When you head South, you're talking about two things — tobacco farmers and evangelicals," Mr. Reed said. "He's not high on the Christmas card list of either group."

Presumably, Reed thinks Rudy can fare better in the South than McCain did in 2000 -- and guys like him are not in the habit of picking losers.

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Rudy & Ralph Funder

The big Rudy/Ralph Reed fundraiser is tomorrow. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution gives us this incisive preview:

Until last week, the only appearance advertised on Ralph Reed's campaign Web site was a November 2005 fund-raiser featuring Atlanta Braves pitcher John Smoltz.

While other candidates beg for attention, Reed — one of two Republican candidates for lieutenant governor — seldom advertises his non-stop appearances across the state. Communication with supporters is done via e-mail, phone trees and conference calls. On-the-record interviews are rare.

For the former head of the national Christian Coalition, who twice helped turn out religious conservatives for President Bush, the question is whether Reed can do the same on his own behalf — beyond the gaze of nagging journalists asking about his relationship with a convicted Washington lobbyist.

Kerwin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University, said Reed may not need to follow the usual path. "Lesser-known candidates do need the media, and they do need endorsements," Swint said. "He may not, but he's unique. He's a little different. [Reed] believes his status in the party among activists and among the hard-core GOP voters will be strong enough to carry him through."

Reed will take a more public approach today, when former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani comes to Atlanta to help the candidate build his $1.1 million campaign fund. In a break with precedent, reporters have been invited to attend.

Not long ago, there was speculation that master organizer Ralph Reed could be Giuliani's Southern sherpa -- the counterweight to has-beens Falwell and Lott for McCain.

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That New York Poll

I'm not all that taken with the "Subway Series" storyline should Rudy and Hillary face each other in '08. Last I checked, Hillary was not a real New Yorker.

And Rudy supporters shouldn't read much into those polls showing Giuliani turning New York red. It's as unlikely as California for Vinick and Texas for Santos. A nice fantasy, maybe the icing on a 450 electoral vote landslide, but not a strategy. Republican candidates tend to run well in the state until Super Tuesday, until New Yorkers turn to their Democratic roots.

Focus on the achievable. Rudy has a better than 50-50 shot of turning New Jersey red, makes Pennsylvania a true swing state again, and would also have a fighting shot in Connecticut. He forces the Democrats to buy mucho points on New York TV even if New York proper isn't their target.

All that said, this is nice to see.

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Rudy Giuliani Visits North Carolina

Mayor Giuliani made his first Southern political pit stop of the year in Charlotte, N.C., taking in 100 G's for the state GOP and doing a health care event with Sen. Richard Burr.

It's always amusing watching the press hunt down phantom Christian conservative opposition to Rudy, but local conservatives were nothing if not gracious and welcoming:

"He's liberal on some issues, but he's solid on the main things," said former Chief Justice I. Beverly Lake Jr.

Raleigh consultant Marc Rotterman said "the issue in '08 is going to be about competency and results. Clearly as mayor of New York he has demonstrated both those traits."

Ann Sullivan, a party activist from Wayne County, said Giuliani would be preferable to at least one possible candidate.

"If we're going to have a president from New York," she said, "it would be nice for it to be Giuliani and not (Democratic Sen. Hillary) Clinton."

The New York Sun plays up a potential vulnerability: a certain standoffishness when it comes to retail politics. Will Rudy '08 be about grand public gestures, and not so much about pressing the flesh?

Her friend, Rosemon Tipton, nodded her head in agreement - but did register a complaint that could become common: "We didn't get to see much of him. I was hoping he would come around, I think it would've helped."

Mr. Giuliani, who arrived in a black SUV, mingled with the crowds only briefly as the events wound down. Mr. Burr broke up the discussion by suggesting Mr. Giuliani needed to get going, with the words, "I see some panic on your staff." ...

The trick now is to pay personal attention to voters, which means speaking with them when he's done speaking to them. Mr. Giuliani didn'audiences yesterday. And he was fidgeting even before his speech at the fund-raiser, whilet seem particularly interested in chatting with his others in the room stood still with their heads bowed. Perhaps his restlessness was just a New York thing - I only noticed him looking side-to-side because I was restless as well.

It's an interesting criticism -- and one Rudy and his people will have to pay heed to, especially in the early states where retail politics is make or break.

Davidson Goldin also mixes in this bit of analysis:

Analysts have speculated that Mr. Giuliani's positions on social issues could be the determining factor in his electability. My sense is that Mr. Giuliani's patience - his willingness to mix and mingle - will play just as big a role. Even here on the edge of the Bible Belt, Ms. Tipton said that "people don't care about abortion anymore."

What do you suppose is more poisonous with conservatives: being the lead sponsor of what is widely viewed as illegal alien amnesty, or being pro-choice? The Gang of 500 won't like the answer, but the answer is amnesty. Rudy isn't quite right by conservatives on this issue, but he's got a ready-made narrative to get right: he'll do for the border what he did for crime in New York City. The un-nominatable McCain, by contrast, is hopeless on what has become the central issue of our time for conservatives.

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McCain to Bloggers: "Sit Down. Shut Up."

First this.

Now this.

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Judge Michael Luttig, Senior Adviser, Giuliani for President

Hugh does make a good point here.

As general counsel for Boeing, Judge Luttig is free to participate in partisan politics, make contributions to campaign, and help candidates shore up their strict constructionist bona fides.

Let's hope Team Rudy is smart enough to recognize this and act on it.

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MI for Rudy

Not only does Giuliani nab Michigan-based Anne Dickerson as his chief fundraiser, but this week, he stopped by to raise some money for Dick DeVos' red-hot gubernatorial bid.

Writing at RedState, Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis has more.

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Kevin Keating, Giuliani Mole?

I haven't focused very much on Giuliani Time, the Michael Moore-like documentary about Rudy, but from what I've seen it's pretty much all welfare and homelessness activists ruing the fascistic Giuliani.

If so, his campaign should pay for 130,000 DVDs and ship them to Iowa Caucus-goers. Nothing could do more to solidify Rudy's credentials as a conservative who drives the wacko left batty.

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McCain Operatives Afraid of Giuliani? Check Out Jim Nussle's Email List

I'm on Jim Nussle's e-mail list and I don't live in Iowa, which makes me an incorrigible political junkie. On Tuesday, the campaign sent an e-mail entitled "Watch Mayor Rudy Giuliani with Jim Nussle in Iowa," linking to this video of Hizzoner campaigning for Nussle for governor.

This morning, I open my e-mail, and it's a "A Message from Senator John McCain." Thinking it's my Straight Talk email, I open it. Instead, it's a Nussle campaign e-mail signed by McCain. Most interesting line: "Jim is a reformer because he cares about getting results."

A reformer with results? Isn't that the line W. used to beat McCain like a drum in the South Carolina primary? It is indeed.

What do you want to bet that the Giuliani e-mail caused all sorts of alarm bells to go off in the attentive-to-detail Straight Talk high command? You know, for all their repeated bragging that Rudy won't run, or don't worry, Rudy is too liberal to get nominated (he "wouldn't get out of the gate," in John Dennehy's words), they do seem to be putting a lot of energy into countering the Mayor. Their tough talk could be a sign of weakness, a recognition that if Rudy gets in, it's Game Over, or, at the very least, a tough row to hoe.

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McCain vs. the Constitution

George Will is rightly unimpressed with the Senator's flagrant disregard for free speech protections, but the best part of the article is this critical point:

McCain hopes that in 2008 pro-life Republicans will remember his pro-life record. But they will know that, regarding presidents and abortion, what matters are Supreme Court nominees. McCain favors judges who think the Constitution is so radically elastic that government regulation of speech about itself is compatible with the First Amendment. So Republican primary voters will wonder: Can President McCain be counted on to nominate justices who would correct such constitutional elasticities as the court's discovery of a virtually unlimited right -- one unnoticed between 1787 and 1973 -- to abortion?

Indeed. I don't know of many judges who'd be zealously protective of CFR (McCain's sine qua non) and have the stones to overturn Roe. At the end of the day, Rudy would have fewer hang-ups about appointing judges who are strict constructionists across the board.

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VIDEO: McCain on Illegals

No border wall. Much blather of illegals "living in the shadows" being "exploited."

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Can She Be Stopped? By Rudy She Can Be

John Podhoretz is out with a new book on Hillary Clinton, Can She Be Stopped? Naturally, this begs the question of who best to stop her. His answer: Rudy. From the interview by visibly deflated Mitt groupie K-Lo:

Lopez: Rudy? Does it have to be Rudy?

Podhoretz: It doesn't have to be Rudy, but in my view he is the best candidate for the GOP. He remains wildly popular despite having made almost no public appearances in the past two years. His record as mayor of New York City—which one can plausibly argue is a job equal to being the governor of most states—remains the most extraordinary example of active conservative governance at the local level in the past 75 years. He is not a Washington candidate, which means he can separate himself from the congressional party's excesses and hijinks. Most important, he spent eight years as a liberal-slayer in New York, taking on every major institution, refusing to kowtow to the New York Times and the liberal media, and getting so much done that the city is still reveling in the revival for which he was almost solely responsible.

How about the MSM's favorite candidate?

Lopez: Why not John McCain? Why not an Allen or Romney?

Podhoretz: John McCain has too complicated a history with the social conservatives and activist groups, and is such a gadfly that it seems inevitable he will act in ways to divide the GOP coalition. Unlike Rudy, he seems to prefer making friends with liberals and attacking conservatives, and that's not a good stance for a party leader. I guess George Allen is a plausible candidate, but why is he at three percent in polls of likely primary voters while McCain and Giuliani are nearly 30 points higher? As for Mitt Romney, I just don't think the nation is ready for a Mormon president (and by the way, I say that as an observant Jew who doesn't think the nation is ready for a Jewish president either).

So, he's pretty much where I'm at. Rudy and McCain are the only "safe" bets to beat Hillary, and until Romney and Allen prove some serious mettle, they aren't worthy of consideration as Hillary-slayers.

And McCain, who is probably too old and won't get any quarter from his liberal "friends" when it's him vs. Hillary, is probably not as safe a bet as people think.

Buy a copy of Can She Be Stopped? today.

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+12 in PA, +4 in GA (Did I Mention How Much I Love Strategic Vision?)

Strategic Vision is proving to be the heavyweight of state-by-state '08 polling. Until SurveyUSA includes a primary ballot test on its famed 50-state roll, SV will remain the best indicator of regional strength in what remains a fluid field.

Pennsylvania is coming in as a stronghold for Rudy, with a +12% advantage (if they'd only move up their primary date, Rudy could firewall there). The first set of results is without Condi, the second, with:

20. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 38%
John McCain 26%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 2%
George Allen 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 20%

23. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008 with Condoleezza Rice included? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 36%
John McCain 20%
Condoleeza Rice 10%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
George Allen 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 19%

Rudy holds on to a small lead in Georgia:

21. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support (Republicans Only)?
Rudy Giuliani 28%
John McCain 24%
Newt Gingrich 13%
George Allen 9%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 16%

23. If Condoleeza Rice were to run for President in 2008, whom would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 25%
John McCain 16%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Condoleeza Rice 10%
George Allen 6%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 21%

BTW: Rudy-backed Ralph Reed holds a 6-point lead in the primary for Lieutenant Governor.

Extrapolating wildly from these two data points, we see Rudy performing better in a Northeastern battleground than in the South. No surprise there. In most polls of the South, Florida excepted, Rudy unperforms midly and McCain slightly overperforms, despite McCain's being so despised by the conservative base.

What's really throwing me through a loop is the Condi effect. In the last 4 Strategic Vision polls, her inclusion (with all due respect to the Condistas, not gonna happen) has bolstered Rudy's bottom line. We know from last month's Diageo-Hotline that McCain's supporters are the most likely to be afflicted with BDS, so what's with George Bush's Secretary of State overperforming with McCain supporters?! Could it be that McCain's support is just plain soft -- that when the "are gonna happen" scenarios pan out (Romney, Allen raise their Name ID), his support evaporates?

This certainly flies in the face of the Chuck Todd/David Keene line on Rudy ("his support drops the minute he announces"). Rudy's support holds up pretty strong no matter who you throw in there. When you exclude Rudy, the number of undecideds shoots way up. It's pretty clear that the people supporting Rudy in polls are more deeply committed than the BDBM thinks.

Just to settle the argument, I'd be interested to see Strategic Vision ask a question excluding McCain. Could it be that he rises even than McCain does on the no-Rudy question? My guess is that he does, indicating a broader reservoir of goodwill among the Republican base, conservative or not.

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Conservatives Heart Rudy?

A Joisey paper looks at the courtship:

The response at the recent business seminar was a tribute to the widespread appeal of the former mayor, who cleaned up New York and stood strong in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But it also looked like a dress rehearsal for a presidential campaign.

With polls showing Giuliani an early front-runner among the GOP's potential presidential candidates in 2008, this appearance and others around the country raise a question: Is the Republican Party ready for a nominee who takes liberal positions on abortion, gun control and gay rights, has had two messy divorces, once lived with a gay couple and endorsed liberal icon Mario Cuomo to be governor of New York?

Maybe so, if the warm reception he got from the mostly conservative audience in Memphis is any indication.

"I think that man would make an excellent president," said Tamara Lowe, the mistress of ceremonies at the event.

Check out the Carbonetti quote. Money:

"He would run on his record," said Anthony V. Carbonetti, a business partner and political adviser to Giuliani. "Here's a guy who governed the largest city in American for eight years, brought down crime, brought welfare rolls down dramatically and reduced taxes. Are there better conservative principles than that?"

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The Bij on Rudy

I'm not sure how I missed this, but RedState diarist The Bij has a firsthand account of the Rudy fundraiser in Des Moines last week -- which he traveled from the Twin Cities to experience (yikes -- that's 243 miles one way, but who's counting?).

What used to be remarkable, and seems less and less so these days, is that this diarist from Minnesota understands the politics of this better than Chuck Todd, Charlie Cook, and the rest of the Brain-Dead Beltway Media (BDBM):

For those of you that insist that Rudy is not running- Tell me if you truly believe that a man like Rudy Giuliani will be happy making speeches on the "Rubber Chicken Circuit" for the rest of his life?

And for those that believe that Rudy may eventually seek public office, but it will not be the presidency- Tell me why he would sit it out in 2006 when polls show that he can beat both Clinton and Spitzer if he ran?

There can be only one conclusion:

Rudy 2008 is on it's way my friends...

Yes it is.

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Mitt Romney and Gay Rights

ABP blogger and New Hampshire consultant Pat Hynes is effectively a paid operative of the McCain campaign. (And for those of you who have actually read STA's FEC reports, I said "effectively.") Note how easily he notes developments like the one below, or the "Write in Bush" stunt in Memphis.

It would seem that certain people who don't wish Governor Romney well have dug up some photographic evidence that would seem to indicate that his position on family issues is less than clear:

That video of Rudy in drag doesn't look so bad in comparison, now does it? (It's actually not as bad as everyone says it is. Go, go, inoculate yourself now, before it's '08!)

No doubt that is probably a clever oppo stunt by McCain's people. But in the end it becomes easier to argue that, when it comes to social issues, there isn't a dime's worth of difference between Rudy (pro-choice since 1989), Romney (pro-choice till 15 minutes ago), McCain (doesn't give a damn/anti-FMA/you can't trust him), and probably Allen (pro-choice Congressman and 2000 Senate candidate). As an added bonus, anything that hurts Romney, who also occupies the competent Yankee executive space, by default helps Rudy.

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Giuliani Blog Outreach?

From On Call, we learn that Fipp Avlon recently headlined a meeting of centrist bloggers in New York (if you don't know who Avlon is, for shame). Well, headlined might be too strong a word, but Rudy's wordsmith from 9/11 did earn rave reviews ("he's so direct and easily eloquent in person that it's hard not to imagine him going into politics himself," gushes Ambivablog; "his eminence derives from inspiration, not age," sayeth the Mighty Middle).

We don't doubt Avlon's sincere commitment to the cause of political centrism, but for now, let's hope someone else is near the primary election steering wheel. (Put him in charge of the transition! Seriously. -ed.) Rudy's campaign cannot be one of centrist futility, but one of constructing a durable conservative majority organized around the Long War against militant Islam.

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McCain Hearts Falwell, or is it Falwell Hearts McCain?

The same day as Byron York indulges in the MSMcCain Kool Aid over at WaPo, comes this coincidentally timed Jerry Falwell op-ed in the New York Times playing up the fact that it was he, not the Senator, who made the first move in their budding relationship:

The senator's speech does not symbolize an endorsement of an unannounced candidacy on my part, and it does not mark the quest for such an endorsement on his part. Mr. McCain has never sought such an endorsement, and I have not offered one. ...

In September I called a meeting with Mr. McCain to put aside any past misunderstandings. We did not ask for apologies from each other, nor were any offered. No ideological deals were brokered.

He says he's not endorsing McCain, but he's not exactly throwing cold water on the notion either:

The next election for president is more than two years away. Mr. McCain is the front-runner for the nomination [Ahem -- not quite. -ed.] and is the kind of conservative candidate whom I would have little trouble supporting.

The electoral landscape, however, is vast and fickle, apt to change over the next many months. If Mr. McCain receives the nomination for president, then I will work for his election. But if another candidate who shares our values wins the nomination, then I will work to support that candidate, too.

Inquiring minds want to know: What role did John Weaver play in drafting or facilitating this op-ed?

Meanwhile, Carol Platt Liebau highlights the trouble with McCain's Falwell Strategy:

But here's the problem. Both Sen. McCain and Rev. Falwell's calculations seem to assume that Rev. Falwell holds a lot of sway over Christian conservatives today -- even though the piece accurately points out that Rev. Falwell's influence has been much diminished. For one thing, in the internet age, it's easier for ordinary people to keep abreast of politicians and their activities on their own. And therefore, the "gatekeeping" function on the dissemination of information that activists like Rev. Falwell used to fill (in essence, "we're keeping track of the politicians because you can't/don't want to") is no longer nearly as vital. People have the ability to become thoroughly and quickly informed largely on their own.

Bingo!

This strikes me as the essential point about McCain's pre-presidential machinations that all in the media are missing: all McCain does is run to gatekeepers -- whether it be Falwell, Bush Pioneers, Terry Nelson -- hoping to arrange a tidy, smoke-filled room nomination like the one he imagines Bush got in 2000. What he doesn't do is tend to the grassroots, be it spitting in their face with the McCain-Kennedy amnesty, or brazenly trampling on the Constitution. He imagines that he can get an establishment coronation while simultaneously screwing the grassroots and the netroots.

I know that Republicans love their frontrunners... but the grassroots and the gatekeepers need to be somewhat in alignment for this strategy to work, no? George W. Bush wasn't nominated in a smoke filled room -- he was far ahead in all the polls early on, and the gatekeepers were giving the grassroots what they wanted. By contrast, the grassroots needs McCain and his immigration plan like they need a bout of avian flu.

In an old media era, it's possible for a Bob Dole to get nominated against the better judgment of well, everybody, because of the influence of gatekeepers. Is it still possible in a new media era? 2000 was inconclusive -- both the grassroots and the gatekeepers liked Bush. McCain may find those prickly bloggers he didn't lift a finger to protect have swept the rug out from his ability to execute his frontrunner strategy.

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Rudy Giuliani Begins Building 2008 Team

Newsmax isn't all that useful -- except as a popularizer and repackager of day-old stories. Their emails do tend to feature Rudy quite a bit, leading me to think that he's quite a draw in getting conservatives to open their email and click on the ads.

A piece this weekend gives the Dickerson hire the treatment, and notes the thaw in Rudy's presidential prep:

Giuliani supporters have been concerned in recent months that popular ex-mayor wasn't doing enough to prepare for 2008.

In January, Newsday reported that his political operation remained so small it "could fit comfortably into a minivan."

Meanwhile, Sen. McCain's political organization had "steadily expanded [into] a national team of hundreds of political professionals and volunteers," the paper said.

The apparent lack of preparation lead one Giuliani insider to tell Newsday: "My gut tells me he's not going to run."

The Times said that Giuliani's advisors personally urged him to begin broadening his team beyond the inner circle of former City Hall aides, adding, "Ms. Dickerson's hiring may be a sign that he is taking that advice."

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Giuliani Nabs Top Bush Fundraiser

Now this is starting to look like a campaign.

Late this week came word that Anne Dickerson, a top deputy in the Jack Oliver-Mercer Reynolds fundraising machine, is becoming the fundraiser-in-chief for Solutions America, the Mayor's PAC.

When Mr. Giuliani traveled through Iowa on a scouting trip Monday, reporters didn't recognize the woman at his side, Anne Dickerson, who was on her first road trip since discreetly becoming Mr. Giuliani's lead fund-raiser a few weeks ago. ...

Ms. Dickerson rose to prominence during the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign, when she wrangled Texas-size cash from donors. Sources said the White House signed off on her role as Mr. Giuliani's presidential cashier.

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"Disappointed" in the Moussaoui Verdict

Chris Matthews has a seven-minute interview with Hizzoner on this travesty of justice.

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Giuliani Up (Slightly) in Tradesports

As expected, Giuliani's '08 numbers have ticked up slightly in Tradesports. They had been waning over several months, reaching a low of 9 a few days ago, and now they're back up to 10.9 after his Iowa visit and a GOP fundraiser in D.C. today. The current lineup is as follows:

McCain 40.7
Allen 17.0
Romney 13.6
Giuliani 10.9
Rice 5.8
Gingrich 3.5
Huckabee 2.6
Frist 1.7

I didn't think McCain's numbers could break 40, but the increasing fragmentation of the field (Rudy is maybe running after all, Golden Boy Allen's got an anger management problem, and Romney's rise) have conspired to make it so. It looks like Allen has peaked too soon, and Romney will probably overtake him over the summer while Rudy waits in the wings.

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VIDEO: Rudy in Iowa

From CNN.

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Who You Gonna Believe, the Clueless Beltway Establishment, or Your Own Eyes?

CBS News's Scott Conroy outlines the "two schools of thoughts" regarding Rudy Giuliani and 2008. First:

Giuliani knows his liberal social views would make it nearly impossible for him to become the Republican nominee, they say. Conventional wisdom holds that a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, anti-gun New Yorker would have about as much of a chance ingratiating himself with South Carolina's Republican primary voters as Hillary Clinton.

Giuliani is making millions from his law firm, consulting company and speaking engagements, and he will be content to live out the rest of his days in private life, basking in the wealth and iconic status, or so this thinking goes.

"I'm in the camp that assumes he's not running," Hotline Editor Chuck Todd told CBSNews.com. "I think it's a marketing ploy for his business."

"His poll standing is that of a celebrity, not a political leader," American Conservative Union Chairman David Keene added.

I see. And these people have never failed us with their dead-on predictions. Chuck -- how'd that "Kerry Landslide" piece pan out? And who could forget when David Keene sold out conservatives with his early endorsement of Arlen Specter?

On the other side, you have observers who have been covering Rudy for years, and not always kindly:

"Rudy Giuliani has wanted to be president since he was a child,” said WCBS-TV political reporter Andrew Kirtzman. “His first childhood hero was John F. Kennedy, and he's always wanted to emulate his achievement as a Catholic president, and there is no sign that that initiative has ever abated."

...

"From what I've seen, conservatives really relate on a visceral level — in a positive way — to Giuliani because he's so personally associated with toughness, both in his foreign policy ideology and when it comes to his record fighting crime in the city,” Kirtzman said. “Put yourself in Giuliani's place. You're just mobbed by adoring fans wherever you go. You walk into a restaurant and the restaurant erupts in cheers. Every trip to the grocery store involves worshipful fans telling you they want you to run for president. It gives you a very strong sense that this could happen."

The piece goes on to discuss how Rudy continues to fly under the Beltway radar:

And he has bypassed conservative leaders — who view him with suspicion — by appealing directly to the grassroots conservative voters who will play a major role in deciding the GOP's 2008 presidential nominee.

For the past three years or so, Giuliani has been a headliner at "Get Motivated" seminars organized by an evangelical Christian and GOP stalwart named Peter Lowe.

The seminars are traveling infomercials that often play in sold-out arenas around the country. They feature speakers who offer advice on how to achieve success in the stock market, real estate and general strategies on how seminar-goers can improve their lives.

Amid a storm of applause, falling confetti and the strains of Frank Sinatra's “New York, New York,” Giuliani strides on the stage to deliver his stump speech on the principles of leadership.

The audiences are largely composed of the God-fearing Republican voters Giuliani needs to win over to capture the GOP nomination. These seminars have enabled him to connect with hundreds of thousands of people across the country.

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Three New Polls: Tie Nationally, McCain +7 in OH, Rudy +4 in WI

From Hotline On Call, a Cook/RT Strategies Poll has Rudy and McCain tied at 25% apiece. But as these D.C. insiders intimate, it's the crosstabs that fascinate:

Among social conservatives:   McCain: 21     Giuliani: 19
Among business conservatives: Giuliani: 33   McCain 24
Among nat/sec conservatives:  McCain: 28     Giuliani: 25
All GOPers:                   McCain: 25     Giuliani: 25

So, basically, social conservatives are not very well served by the McCain-Giuliani choice and there's a sizeable opening for a so-con identity candidate (not McCain or Rudy). But if it were to boil down to those two, it would be no worse than a wash for the "socially liberal" Giuliani. The business conservative numbers are mildly surprising (in favor of Rudy) and so too the national security conservatives (in favor of McCain).

In Ohio, McCain sports a seven point lead (from the Observer's Politicker):

Things are more spread out among GOP voters. McCain topped the list of 31 percent. But the pack on his heels includes former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani, 25 percent; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, 21 percent; and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 10 percent.

Note that the poll includes non-candidate Condi Rice, so take it with a grain of salt.

Hot off the presses is Strategic Vision's Wisconsin poll, showing Rudy up slightly in a non-Condi match-up, and way ahead with Condi included:

25. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Tommy Thompson excluded; Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 36%
John McCain 32%
Newt Gingrich 6%
George Allen 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 11%

28. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Condoleezza Rice included and Tommy Thompson excluded Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 34%
John McCain 20%
Condoleeza Rice 12%
Newt Gingrich 7%
George Allen 3%
Mitt Romney 3%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 16%

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NYT on the Iowa Visit

The NYT's Patrick Healy writes up the Iowa visit. Occasionally, even the Times can manage to inject some new angles into a story, though it's only modestly successful in this case. Here's the uncharted territory.

Giuliani was unwavering in his support of the President last night in Davenport:

At a fund-raiser in Davenport on Monday night, Mr. Giuliani offered a stout defense of President Bush's leadership, arguing that the economy was growing and that Mr. Bush would go down in history as "a great president."

"I don't know what we're all so upset about," he said, referring to concerns about the economy and rising costs, such as gas prices.

More ruminating on the bizarre McCain/Rudy kabuki dance:

In response to another question, Mr. Giuliani disclosed that he was not sure if his own presidential plans would be swayed if Senator McCain of Arizona also ran in 2008, as many expect.

"John is a good friend and someone I have tremendous admiration for, and he's a hero of mine, so I haven't really thought about how I would approach that," Mr. Giuliani said.

The central premise of this blog is that McCain can be taken by Giuliani and only Giuliani. Let's hope he's not swayed!

Could Rudy bring out folks who've never attended a precinct caucus before. Iowa BC04 Chair Dave Roederer thinks maybe so:

Before the fund-raiser, Mr. Giuliani met with several Iowa Republican leaders who were players in past presidential caucuses — among them David M. Roederer, the state chairman of the Bush-Cheney campaign in 2004, and Terry E. Branstad, a four-term governor who left office in 1999.

In an interview, Mr. Roederer said that a Giuliani presidential bid "would find a very receptive audience in Iowa."

While many traditional caucusgoers are more hard-core conservatives and may oppose Mr. Giuliani over social issues, Mr. Roederer said, other more moderate Republicans might come out of the woodwork and attend the caucuses for the first time to support him because of his brand of politics and his leadership during the 9/11 crisis. More than 610,000 Iowans are registered Republicans, Mr. Roederer said, but only about 110,000 typically vote in the caucuses.

It's an interesting thought, but if I were Chris Henick, I'd be thinking of ways that Rudy shouldn't need to count on it. With no clear pro-life alternative in the race, there's a good chance that said "hard-core conservative" vote could splinter to inconsequential candidates like it did in 2000; whoever emerges as viable alternative for the pragmatic, win-at-all-costs half of the electorate could take Iowa, and I don't think Benedict Arnold McCain fits the Lincoln Day crowd's image of a loyal Republican.

The Dean Scream was a consequence of the fact that even caucus electorates aren't suicidal, a consideration the NYT and the MSM have not even thought of applying to Republicans.

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Gee, That's Prominent

This is Ralph Reed's homepage. Notice anything interesting?

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Staffing Up: John Avlon to Handle Comms for Rudy's PAC

We read with great interest this piece in the Daily News on Rudy's business empire, until we stumbled upon this piece about John Avlon being hired as communications director at his PAC (we assume that means Solutions America). If there's anything more exciting than the gobs and gobs of money Giuliani is stockpiling before the campaign and his two terms, it's John Avlon.

Rudy-watchers will know Avlon's writing from the New York Sun, where he has written a number of pieces favorable to the former Mayor's 2008 presidential hopes. Here is a typical piece from Google's cache of Real Clear Politics, from a year ago:

[Pat Robertson]'s character endorsement is an important green light to a possible presidential run that some social-conservative political operatives were overconfidently whispering was dead on arrival. It is also a generous and timely reinforcement of Ronald Reagan's principle of the "big tent" by someone associated with the far right of the party. With even tacit support and an established comfort level with leaders of the Christian Coalition, the broad popular support for a Giuliani presidential campaign that already exists among Republicans and independents could be unstoppable. He could be the first Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan to win both New York and California on the way to winning the White House.

One problem: Avlon, the author of Independent Nation, is an unrepentant moderate who worked for Bill Clinton in 1996 before joining the Giuliani Administration, and who argues that an independent could be elected President in 2008. Don't look for any help from him on the repositioning front (he sounds like Rudy's answer to the Bull Moose; can't wait for the snarky press quote wars between Avlon and Wittmann in '08!!). But, nonetheless, the fact that Giuliani is reviving his moribund PAC should tell us something.

Yep, he's running.

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Giuliani Visits Iowa

The AP covers Rudy's Iowa visit:

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Raising money for local Republicans even as he ponders his own political future, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani said Monday that Republicans must increasingly be "a big party" that accepts divergent views.

Giuliani said that broad-brush themes, like limited government, ought to define the Republican Party - not hot-button social issues like abortion and gay rights.

"The major thing that we organize around as Republicans is government that puts more reliance on people than government," Giuliani said. "They (Democrats) tend to think of government solutions as most of the answers."

Giuliani was in Iowa to raise money for Jeff Lamberti, a Republican candidate for Congress, and Rep. Jim Nussle, who is running unopposed for the Republican nomination for governor.

Giuliani was also clear he's considering his own future ambitions.

"I am interested in public service again," he said. "My effort this year will be to help Republicans get elected and, quite honestly, a part of it also is saying to myself 'Does it look like I have a chance in 2008?'"

He definitely sounds like he's weighing it seriously. Interestingly enough, "I'm interested in public service again" is the same line he's been using retiring as Mayor and in 2004, when the media was absolutely certain he would run. He hasn't changed his tune.

Giuliani raised $40,000 for Lamberti and $25,000 for Nussle.

The April 13th McCain fundraiser was expected to raise $60,000 to $65,000 for Nussle.

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Rudy Courts S.C. GOPers

Via the Palmetto State's own Jeff Quinton we find Hizzoner's stealth campaign making a move for South Carolina's GOP establishment. When Warren Tompkins' name gets thrown in there, you know it's serious:

South Carolina Republicans traveled to New York City last month to talk politics with former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his staff.

The trip was part of the South Carolinians’ search for a consensus presidential candidate for 2008. It was primarily an information-seeking conference for both sides, participants said.

“There were a lot of questions. A lot of interests,” said Warren Tompkins, a Columbia-based political consultant with close ties to the White House. “We talked process, and gave the mayor and his staff the names of people to contact.”

This much is for certain. Former State GOP chairman Barry Wynn does not sound like a McCain guy:

“I do sense that if he got into the race, the people would be very excited about it,’ Wynn said. “There’s a sense we need to be inspired for the good of the country. We need some inspiration. And sometimes you can’t get that from a sitting member of Congress. We need somebody from the outside who’ll bring a fresh perspective.”

Of the half-dozen or so candidates mentioned, more than half are members of Congress.

On the other hand, Wynn said, “Guiliani creates passion, enthusiasm and excitement.”

Team Rudy needs to bring this guy in, as he's just given them their frame against McCain, who is looking very Bob Dole-like these days. South Carolina campaign chairman, anyone?

And what would a story like this be without an appearance by the thuggish, Vader-like eminence, Richard Quinn?

Richard Quinn, a consultant to the McCain campaign, said Guiliani is “unelectable in South Carolina because he’s a social liberal. When voters find out he favors gay marriage, gun control, abortion rights , their support for him will evaporate.”

We'll see how well Rudy plays in South Carolina, but the fact that a story like this is being written shows how far Team Rudy has come in allaying the fears that Hizzoner won't run.

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