Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Friday, June 30, 2006

ARG Update: Ryan Sager Smokes 'Em Out

A little while back, I noticed that the American Research Group was engaged in some hackery in their '08 primary polls, relegating Rudy to a secondary ballot test. I showed how this would have the effect of reducing Rudy's support by 60% while conspicuously inflating McCain's numbers.

Ryan Sager had much the same question and he asked ARG poll-meister Dick Bennett about it. Here's the response he got back:

We added Giuliani after the first ballot and did not randomize the order of the questions.

While he has been more active lately, there are still no signs on the ground that he will run. I continue to hear from activists that Giuliani will only get in the race if McCain does not.

Hope this is helpful.

Which "activists" (Mike*cough*Dennehy) has Bennett been talking to and what information do they have that national political reporters don't? Because this is the first I've heard of this Rudy won't run if McCain does business. I haven't seen this specific bit of gossip reported anywhere in the Rudy-skeptical MSM.

Bennett's methods are so obviously flawed it's hard to know where to begin. Even if Bennett is just covering his bases, he's doing it in such a way that makes it appear that it won't matter even if Rudy does run, skewing the results to McCain. And he's letting his polls be influenced by bought-and-paid for "activists."

It's hard to find a poll less reputable than Zogby's crap Internet poll, but ARG is in that spot right now, at least with respect to their GOP primary polling. -- and please be polite.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Solutions America Pushes '08 Buzz

On its website, Rudy's PAC spotlights the piece earlier this week by Philip Klein, entitled "Giuliani and History." Here are some of the excerpts they chose to highlight:

With Rudy Giuliani crisscrossing the country in support of Republican candidates and raising money for his new political action committee, it is beginning to look inevitable that he will seek the presidency in 2008. Despite his lead in many early polls, skeptics still dismiss his chances of winning the Republican nomination given his personal background and liberal views on social issues. There is no doubt that these will be obstacles for Giuliani, but compared to the forces that will propel him into the White House, they are small potatoes.
The mere fact that there is a serious debate over whether or not Giuliani could be elected is a remarkable testament to how inspired Americans were by his leadership on that day. Normally we discuss vice presidents, governors, senators or military leaders as possible presidential candidates. It is rare, if not unprecedented, for a former mayor to be considered as a presidential candidate so earnestly by so many people.
Not running my a**.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Smart Move by McCain

Here at RudyBlog, we give credit where credit is due. Props to John McCain for coming out and blogging on one of the few issues he's good on: fighting pork.

This doesn't erase McCain's long record of not-getting-it when it comes to the blogosphere and the issues that matter to the grassroots. Here is the response I posted on the thread:

Thanks for the post Senator McCain, and welcome to the blogosphere.

Hopefully, this post represents a change of heart and a new direction for you on issues of particular importance to conservatives and bloggers alike, among them the attempted silencing of patriotic groups like the Swift Vets through CFR, your office's near-total silence on the Online Freedom of Speech Act, and the harsh rhetoric directed at critics of the Senate immigration bill.

Posted at: June 28, 2006 06:00 PM

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Giuliani Leads in the Old Confederacy

New Strategic Vision numbers from Georgia and Florida. First, Georgia:

26. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support (Republicans Only)?
Rudy Giuliani 27%
John McCain 22%
Newt Gingrich 15%
George Allen 8%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 4%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 17%
And Florida, which is becoming quite the firewall for Rudy:
8. Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 39%
John McCain 28%
George Allen 8%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 10%
The big variable in the Georgia number is Newt's big showing in his home state. Newt won't enter the race until the fall of 2007, and only then if no frontrunner has emerged. Considering this is the Republican Party, the odds are against a truly leaderless field and hence, a Newt candidacy. Who will Newt's people support? I'd tend to think those attracted to Newt's reformist zeal would go to Rudy and those attracted to his principled conservatism would go to Allen or Romney, with McCain the big loser. If so, Georgia has the potential to be a surprise win for frontrunner Rudy Giuliani.

Or you could buy into the Charlie Cook analysis and conclude that these Southerners all have false consciousness, and will one day awaken from their slumber in a fit of single issue pique and nominate that principled, consistent, dependable conservative, John McCain. Or, the voters of the South could mean exactly what they say.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Thank You!

There's no excuse for not getting a real blogroll going, but I'd like to take a moment to recognize all the blogs that have linked here in the past month. You've made this blog more successful than I could have imagined in this short period of time. Please be sure to pay these great bloggers a visit: BitsBlog, Cardinal Martini, Chris :: Wired, Daily Inklings, Dean Esmay, Elect Romney in 2008, Fulluseous Flap's Dental Blog, Lorie Byrd, Miscellaneous Objections, Political Prognostications, and Smart Christian.

And here's to the big MSM types who have taken notice: Gawker, The Politicker, The Hotline's Blogometer, and some good-natured joshing from Hotline On Call.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Rudy vs. McCain Banner Ads -- Look Who's Top Dog

A preview of things to come?

This is from a Weekly Standard article on the McCain vs. Romney showdown in Michigan, a piece that nearly meets First Responder criteria for ignoring the central fact of the '08 race: Rudy's frontrunner status.

Crowning the page is an enticing ad for Giuliani's Solutions America web site (on NRO, the ad is said to have generated the shocking idea that Rudy might run in '08). Below and to the right you'll see an ad for McCain and his months-old book.

We can speculate all day long of course, but I doubt this is a coincidence.

In recent months browsing the Weekly Standard online or NRO, I have yet to come across an ad for Straight Talk America. But Rudy starts making presidential noises with an online ad buy on several conservative websites, and all of a sudden, McCain ads start popping up.

There's no way of knowing for sure who's ad was up first, but we've seen this kind of thing before. When Jim Nussle's campaign for governor send out a glowing email on Rudy's trip to Iowa, Straight Talk America countered within a week with a McCain fundraising email to the same list.

So, this begs the question. If McCain's people aren't worried about Rudy and bluster that Rudy "wouldn't get out of the gate," why are they seemingly so intent on copying his every move with this new form of Presidential cyber-stalking?

The people advising McCain aren't dumb. They understand the serious threat Giuliani poses, and realize that Rudy's entry into the race could well be a campaign-ender for them.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Sunday, June 25, 2006

Another Clue That Rudy's Running?

The Rick Santorum biography on Rudy's Solutions America web site says the following:

• Rick Santorum believes in a culture of life. He led the charge in the U.S. Senate to pass legislation to ban partial birth abortion, and also worked to pass the Born-Alive Infants Protection Act, which recognizes the basic rights of all children born alive.
Via Project Logic.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Rudy Video of the Day

An old video of some crazy dude heckling Rudy and claiming Wal-Mart was responsible for 9/11 is making the rounds. One of Rudy's underappreciated strengths in any Presidential race is the fact that he is probably the best unscripted politician of his generation -- notice how he keeps his cool here. As Mayor he could regularly speak engagingly from an open stage, without a podium or a script, for an hour or more. Not many people could pull that off -- and it makes the likelihood a campaign-ending gaffe once pulled off-script (Kerry's $87 billion remark, Dean's "Yearrggh" or more recently McCain's First Amendment faux-pas) much less likely.

Anyway, here's the video.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Saturday, June 24, 2006

McCain Can't Win on His Home Turf

Not Arizona, but the Washington, D.C. Beltway.

The Hotline canvasses 2008 political button sales in D.C. and finds McCain lagging. Among Republicans, the rundown is as follows:

Condi 14%
Romney 13%
Rudy 12%
Hagel 9%
McCain 7%

A note to the good folks at the Hotline: Yes, this post mentions John McCain. Which will probably trigger a Straight Talk America Adsense ad the top of the page. This is part of a nefarious conspiracy to mention John McCain as much as possible, drawing in content-driven Google ads and forcing McCain's PAC to spend ad dollars reaching a site frequented by diehard McCain opponents.

Anyhow, thanks for stopping by. Hope we can engage substantively at some point.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Friday, June 23, 2006

Get Rudy Email

Can't get enough '08/Rudy coverage? Sign up for Giuliani Blog's once-daily email alert summarizing everything posted to this blog. Every day, I scour RSS feeds for every Giuliani mention and post the most important, relevant Rudy content to this blog. Sign up today:

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Note: Whether you've signed up before or are about to, don't forget to verify your Feedburner registration.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Thursday, June 22, 2006

Rudy '08: Hotline Remains Skeptical

When even Chris Cillizza jumps about the "Rudy's running" bandwagon, you know he's made some headway. But the Hotline remains skeptical. Here's what they have to say about their pick of the Rudy/Newt in a combo #4 slot:

As the No. 1 and No. 3 in most primary surveys, we feel the need to include them as a combination candidate. If either runs, he is automatically top five material, so why ignore it? Until Giuliani hosts an event featuring fewer than 200 people in an early primary state, we'll keep our powder dry. He's testing "center of the party, center of the country"-type themes. But he has yet to convince us that, come November, Republicans will hunger for him -- which can go a long way in papering over problems with his ideology.
The Hotline's position is this: The Republican base, fresh from a whipping in the midterms, will say thanks but no thanks to Rudy, and then turn to McCain in desperation. In their McCain analysis, Chuck Todd and Marc Ambinder write:
The current conundrum is that he's not with the party's activist base on immigration. . So we don't expect him to make substantial headway with those folks until after the midterms, when Republicans may well be hungry for a winner.
If this isn't evidence that these two are in the tank for McCain, I don't know what is. Virtually every major poll that has studied the question shows Republican primary voters hungrier for Rudy than McCain. More importantly (because this is more of a leading indicator of "smart money" support), Giuliani seems to be building up a clear electability advantage over McCain, whose ratings with Democrats and independents have been plummeting. Rudy gives conservative activists a safe and guilt-free alternative to the hated John McCain.

Plus, has the Hotline thought of this: Screwing your base in an off-year is one thing, but the defeat of the immigration bill virtually assures the subject will come up again next year. How does McCain survive leading a floor debate on immigration in the midst of his Iowa Caucus campaign?

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Solutions America June FEC Report

It's that time of the month again -- FEC time!

In May, Rudy continued to ramp up his PAC, bringing on staff and building out a website. New on the Solutions America payroll are comms guy Fipp Avlon, fundraiser Melissa Davis, plus a few operations folks.

John Avlon

Melissa Davis

Matthew Mahoney

Joseph Weinkam
The report features another $25,000 to the consultancy of fundraiser Anne Dickerson, who ran Rangers and Pioneers at BC04.
DGM & Associates
One of the bigger expenditures was to D.C.-based RightClick Strategies, which designed Rudy's website. Is this a hopeful sign of how seriously Giuliani plans to take the Internet?
Rightclick Strategies LLC
And lastly of note, there are a couple of reimbursements for air travel back to the group that books Rudy's public speeches:
Washington Speakers Bureau

Washington Speakers Bureau
The Committee made another candidate contribution of $5,000 to Jeff Lamberti in Iowa's 3rd, for whom Rudy did a fundraiser. Expect things to get much more interesting on this front, as Solutions America was expected to drop $100,000 in a day after last week's $2 million fundraiser.

For the month, Solutions America took in $159,022, mostly in anticipation of the big fundraiser. Again, watch out next month as all of this money gets reported.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

McCain Continues to Lead MI, Rudy Leads in Jersey

The only places where McCain seems to run really a strong are the primary states he won last time. Unfortunately for us, those include powerhouses New Hampshire and Michigan. That trend continues in the Wolverine State, with a big Romney footprint, in the latest Strategic Vision poll:

19. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)
John McCain 39%
Rudy Giuliani 22%
Mitt Romney 15%
Newt Gingrich 3%
George Allen 3%
Bill Frist 3%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 12%
While MI GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis sings the praises of the McCain Michigan team, he does note that there are efforts afoot to lock down the primary after 2000's wide-open affair. At the very least, Democrats will hold their primary the same day, tamping down activity by the miscreant Democrats and independents who put McCain over the top last time. Here's hoping for a bloody, contested Democratic primary, and indies turned off by McCain's abandoning the straight talk brand.

And in next door New Jersey, Rudy leads by 13:
18. Who would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 45%
John McCain 32%
Mitt Romney 4%
Newt Gingrich 3%
George Pataki 2%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Allen 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 9%

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Be a First Responder for Rudy

Repeat something often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. This is Kerry's race to lose. Howard Dean looks unstoppable in the Democratic primary. John McCain is the inevitable Republican nominee in 2008.

A year ago, Giuliani and McCain were tied in the polls. The same is true today. But endless repetition of McCain-as-frontrunner mantra has hardened to the point where McCain's chances of getting the nod are rated as highly as Hillary's and for that matter, George W. Bush's in 1999. This is strange, given the fact that Rudy's support is more likely to stick around because it comes from people who actually vote in primaries.

It's time we dismantled the conventional wisdom brick by brick.

How many stories have you seen that fail to even mention Rudy Giuliani while covering every move by McCain, Romney, Allen, and even... Pataki? How pieces have you seen that cite McCain as the sole frontrunner, a proposition that is empirically incorrect? Or articles that, even when they do mention Rudy, claim that he is running second in the polls to McCain (again, this is demonstrably wrong).

The answer to all these questions is "Too many."

When you do see such a piece, I'm asking you to email the reporter and his or her editors to correct the record. I will also flag such pieces on this blog when they appear, and if you're a pro-Rudy blogger I'm asking you to flag this biased coverage as well. As one of the "Big Four" Republicans of '08, Rudy deserves the same extensive coverage as the other WH'08 contenders, even if it means trudging to every Get Motivated! seminar from now till he announces. As the co-frontrunner with McCain, he should be portrayed accurately as such.

It's with some hesitation that I take this step, because the people who often do this are uncouth cranks crudely working the refs. But I've come to the conclusion that there is an important difference between this and astroturfing for Condi Rice or Al Gore, who are not running. Simply put, we have the facts and public opinion on our side. Rudy has visited Iowa, is raising money for '06 candidates, and probably has a more active travel schedule than anyone in the race. It's not 100% that he runs -- but if he does, he's the odds-on favorite. Speaking from experience, even one reasoned e-mail to a war-weary reporter offering constructive criticism can go a long way.

Be a first responder for Rudy. And just as important, be very, very polite!

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Monday, June 19, 2006

More Americans Would Definitely Vote for Rudy Than McCain

A new CNN poll shows more good news for the Mayor. When asked who Americans would definitely vote for and against in 2008, Rudy scored the highest positive score of any Republicans and had the lowest negative vote of any candidate, period.

Regarding potential Democratic candidates, 47 percent of respondents said they would "definitely vote against" both Clinton, the junior senator from New York who is running for re-election this year, and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the party's candidate in 2004.

Forty-eight percent said the same of former Vice President Al Gore, who has repeatedly denied he intends to run again for president.

Among the Republicans, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani fared better than the Democrats, and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush fared worse.

Only 30 percent said they would "definitely vote against" Giuliani; 34 percent said that of McCain.

Here were the positives:

Among all choices, Clinton had the highest positive number; of those polled, 22 percent said they would "definitely vote for" her.

Giuliani was next with 19 percent, followed by Gore with 17 percent, Kerry with 14 percent, McCain with 12 percent and Bush at 9 percent.

Despite all this, I expect Chuck Todd to continue to raving about how all's well in McCainsville.

That 12 percent number in particular has to hurt. McCain has a weaker base of support than career losers Kerry and Gore; only Rudy rivals the very polarizing Hillary's hard base -- and he does it without her negatives. McCain has higher negatives among all voters than Rudy.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Top Illinois Social Conservative Okay with Rudy

Clicking through some old links in the RSS feed, found this link from Jeff Berkowitz to Tom Roeser, who is termed the "Mr. Conservative" of Illinois politics (the William F. Buckley of Chicago)? In this blog post, Roeser gives his blessing to a Giuliani candidacy if the Mayor pledges to appoint good judges:

Then there was movement in the room, everybody raced to the entrance, the television lights went on and the crowd, towering over a smallish man, moved ever-so-slowly and there was that wide Italian smile, the smile of a little guy but also a Prince of the City. I tell you, most politicians do nothing to me when they enter a room-even when a band plays “Hail to the Chief.” I stood dry-eyed and emotionless when Richard Nixon would come onto a stage as president. I was powerfully affected by Ronald Reagan only once-when after he recovered from his bullet wound, he appeared before the Congress, turned and waved as a hero. Jerry Ford, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George H. W. Bush, even George W. Bush doesn’t turn me on. The pencil-slim John Kennedy did when he was a Senator as he moved into a room where I was standing in St. Paul.

But I’ve got to tell you: this guy Giuliani has magnetism. I feel about him as I would from the gut. From my gut I think John McCain, though a hero, is something like a cardboard pop-up. The same with everybody else who’s mentioned for president-except.

I’ve got to talk to my friend the priest and get him to instill me with confidence that as president Giuliani would name good jurists, that he wouldn’t endorse embryonic stem cells, that he wouldn’t interfere with any constitutional amendment that protects traditional marriage. But this I know: if Giuliani is ever president, the same gutsy, forceful drive to take the campaign against terrorism to the offensive and not keep it on the defensive would triumph. That you can take to the bank.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Exposed: The American Research Group’s Anti-Giuliani, Pro-McCain Bias

The other day, The Bij emailed to ask why the American Research Group’s state-by-state primary polling seems so out of whack. In each of the states they survey, McCain remains the prohibitive frontrunner with Giuliani struggling to break out of low double-digits. Do they have a special insight into the race that all other pollsters don’t? I decided to do some digging.

For the longest time, New Hampshire-based ARG refused to even add Giuliani to its polls, using the flimsy excuse that he hadn’t visited New Hampshire. Huh? By this standard, Hillary Clinton should be excluded from ARG’s polls!

Then, when did another round of polling of other early primary states, they continued to exclude Giuliani, to the obvious benefit of McCain. I’m not sure what his not visiting New Hampshire has to do with a poll of South Carolina (where he has visited) or Maine.

In their latest rounds of polls, ARG seemingly bit the bullet and included him – but on a second question, after a first non-Giuliani ballot test. Odd, I thought. Most other polls included Rudy straight-away, and if they wanted to gauge the impact of his departure from the race, would ask a second non-Rudy question. And a bell went off: studies have shown that question order matters in polls. Ask the Bush approval question early in the poll, as opposed to last, after twenty or thirty leading questions, and you get a more favorable result. I wondered if the same could be true of ARG’s unorthodox practice of including Rudy on the second rather than the first ballot. More importantly, how to prove it?

And then a second bell went off: Condi.

Numerous pollsters have asked the 2008 primary question with and without Condi included. Was there any impact in those polls that added Condi to a second ballot, as opposed to taking her off after the first?

There was. On average, Condi’s support was 40% lower when she was added as an afterthought and not included right away.

Condi on First Ballot

Condi Added to Ballot

WNBC/Marist 2/06


SV Wisconsin 6/06


WNBC/Marist 10/05


SV Florida 5/06


WNBC/Marist 2/05


SV Michigan 5/06


CNN/USAT/Gall 12/05


SV Washington 5/06


Zogby* 12/05


SV New Jersey 5/06


Diageo/Hotline 11/05


SV Pennsylvania 5/06


Fox News/OD 9/05


SV Georgia 5/06


SV New York 4/06


Average with Condi on 1st Ballot


Average with Condi Added on 2nd Ballot


* Low numbers for candidates across the board, high undecideds

This isn’t a perfect comparison of course. All the polls to the left are national polls. And all the polls to the right are state polls from Strategic Vision – because they were the only other ones I could find who added candidates to a second ballot. No national pollster did this – perhaps because a more experienced pollster would know that this technique raises a huge red flag. A one-to-one comparison assumes the race has remained fairly static (a safe assumption given the Giuliani-McCain numbers haven’t moved) and that SV’s states are representative overall (eyeballing it, they sure seem to be).

Looking at the evidence, it’s fairly clear that adding Rudy to the ballot is depressing his numbers. What happens if you give him the same 60% boost Condi gets with first ballot treatment? His numbers across the eight ARG states rise to 26% -- right in line with his national numbers. Mystery solved.

Is ARG doing this intentionally? A long line of evidence suggests a disturbing answer. They initially refused to add the national frontrunner to their poll, even outside their New Hampshire backyard. When they did, they chose a technique that gave him numbers that were abnormally low. Beyond the early states, their selection of states also tends to be weighted to the most heavily RINO/McCain states from 2000 – Vermont? Rhode Island? Maine? Massachusetts?

ARG's polling on the 2008 Republican primary is extremely unreliable. Here at Giuliani Blog, we will not report on the result of another ARG poll until ARG responds adequately to questions raised about its methodology and impartiality.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Saturday, June 17, 2006

Watch Rudy's 2004 RNC Speech

You can now watch Rudy bringing Republicans red and blue to their feet at the 2004 Republican National Convention (via Solutions America).

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Rudy Giuliani, Fiscal Conservative

Dave runs down a list of accomplishments that would make any Club for Growth fan cheer:

* Giuliani cut taxes in NYC by 22 percent, or $8 billion.
* Rudy's economy produced over 400,000 jobs, the strongest 7-year gain on record.
* Rudy turned a $2.3 billion deficit into a surplus.
* Giuliani reduced the size of government by cutting the city payroll by 19 percent (when was the last time a president of either party actually sent lazy civil servants packing?).
* Rudy slowed the growth of government to below the rate of inflation.
* Rudy did all of this while maintaining services that benefit most people, like law enforcement and education.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Strategic Vision: +11 in Pennsylvania

Once again, Pennsylvania shapes up to be an important big-state firewall for Rudy:

20. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 39%
John McCain 28%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 3%
George Allen 3%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 14%

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Peggy Noonan on Rudy: "The Sound of the Future"

Peggy Noonan closes her Thursday column by reflecting on the Mayor's Manhattan Institute speech, and how refresingly un-political it sounded:

Let me close with something that I thought had the sound of the future in it. I was at a Manhattan Institute lunch this week at which Rudy Giuliani spoke. He impressed the audience of 200 or so, which was not surprising as it was his kind of group, urban-oriented thinkers drawn not to ideology but to what works and will help in the world. (I am a longtime supporter.) At one point he was asked about national education policy. Mr. Giuliani said he wanted more national emphasis on choice. He spoke of it as a civil rights issue, and told stories to illustrate the point.

Then--this is the part with the sound of the future in it--he laid out the reasons both parties have failed to push the ball forward. The Democrats fear the teachers unions and the educational establishment. The Republicans are heavily represented in and by suburban and country areas, which tend to have good schools, tend to be happy with them, and are wary of a movement they fear might take something from them. And so the students who need the most help, city kids who would benefit the most from creativity, are held captive to a failed public-education monopoly.

His candor was refreshing. Mr. Giuliani's approach was nonpartisan in the best sense--i.e., not fuzzy but frank. It wasn't Public schools want to be free; it was This is what will help, this is why it isn't happening, this is why we have to make it happen. That didn't sound like the same old same old. It didn't sound like the past.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

No Upside for Reluctant Statesmen

Jason Horowitz looks at how much longer the Rudy "bubble" of invulnerability can last with the Mayor seemingly prepping a Presidential bid:

It brings up one question, though: Is this also the beginning of the end of the Giuliani bubble?

Mr. Giuliani, after all, has yet to return to earth after the former Mayor’s virtual beatification following Sept. 11. In the five years since the country rallied around his display of gutsy leadership, “America’s Mayor” has inhabited something of a political paradise.

The fact that he doesn’t hold public office—and has yet to formalize his intentions to run for President—has effectively rendered him immune from criticism. His close and emotionally charged association with 9/11 lends an unequalled authority to his national-security speeches and has propelled the 62-year-old to greater heights of celebrity than he ever enjoyed as Mayor.
A lot of people are betting that Rudy won't want to give it all up on a destructive and possibly losing bid for the White House. I'm betting otherwise.

Who rates more mentions in the history books, Douglas MacArthur or Dwight D. Eisenhower? MacArthur was certainly the more outspoken of the two, and millions clamored for him to lead them. But he never ran, and thus never got to shape history beyond a brief run after retiring from the Army. A more recent example is even more illustrative.

For a time in 1995, the Earth seemed to stop spinning on its axis as America awaited Colin Powell's decision on entering the Presidential race. By all accounts, he could have made quick work of Bill Clinton. In the end, this reluctant warrior balked yet again. Five years later, Powell would be named Secretary of State. During his tenure, he was a lonely figure, resisting the Iraq war from within. He wound up retiring in frustration, popular but powerless.

Had he pursued the bolder path, Colin Powell could have been President on 9/11 and could have rejected out of hand the idea of going into Iraq. I personally believe Powell would have been a disaster in the foreign policy arena, but in opting for popularity over a down-and-dirty run for the presidency, Powell miscalculated badly in terms of his ability to influence the debate.

Our political system has but one currency and that is power. Not popularity, but power. And you either have it or you don't. (Certainly Rudy-watchers must concede that power is something Hizzoner understands.) When it comes to making your mark in history, there is still no substitute for the Presidency.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Barry Wynn, Giuliani's South Carolina Man?

In our very first post, we noted this curious quote by South Carolina G.O.P. poo-bah Barry Wynn:

“I do sense that if he got into the race, the people would be very excited about it,’ Wynn said. “There’s a sense we need to be inspired for the good of the country. We need some inspiration. And sometimes you can’t get that from a sitting member of Congress. We need somebody from the outside who’ll bring a fresh perspective.”

Of the half-dozen or so candidates mentioned, more than half are members of Congress.

On the other hand, Wynn said, “Guiliani creates passion, enthusiasm and excitement.”

By all accounts, Wynn made another trip to New York to attend the fundraiser. Here's what the WABC-TV quoted him as saying:
"I represent the conservative wing of the Republican Party in South Carolina and I think a lot of those people are very pragmatic and they want someone that can win," Barry Wynn, of the South Carolina GOP said.
The Politicker has a good piece on Rudy's Southern supporters, and Wynn figures prominently:
Barry Wynn, the former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party and the finance chair of President Bush's re-election campaign, said yesterday that Giuliani "seems like a man of action and not just talking. He certainly is the type of person Washington needs. He is an outsider and that's refreshing." He also said that he'd "certainly be one of the people encouraging him" to run.
This is a pretty big deal. If any other candidate nabbed someone with his credentials, it would make national news.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

More from the Website

This is on Rudy's home page:

Rudy: America's Most Successful Conservative
New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who says he has given "no thought yet" to national aspirations, is campaigning for Republican candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire and elsewhere. That... Read more

It's a link to a piece by George Will, written in 1998. It looks like Rudy's people are pretty eager to address the concern that he isn't conservative enough.

Oh, and here's another article excerpt featured prominently in their News area, and it's exclusively about how Rudy can win in '08.

Want Rudy to run? Sign up. And donate.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Quote of the Day

"I think it'll be a historic picture in about three or four years, when we look back and remember how it all started."

-- Giuliani finance chair Ken Langone, inviting guests to have their picture taken with the Mayor

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Rudy's Website:

Rudy's PAC now has a website where you can go to get involved in the 2006 elections and get in on the ground floor of a presidential campaign. Bookmark it at

My first impression: Damn, that thing is slick. It looks just like a campaign site.

His "Record" page spotlights crime, taxes, and fiscal responsibility as the top three issues. His bio page features photos of him with Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. It's just the kind of portfolio a conservative Republican running for President would want to have.

You can also donate online. I highly encourage everyone to do so. You'll be supporting key '06 candidates while encouraging Rudy to run in '08. It's simple: the more candidates Solutions America can support, the more Republican officeholders and grassroots activists will be indebted to Rudy when he runs. And if we're going to shock Charlie Cook and the D.C. establishment, Rudy needs to the blogosphere candidate.

Show Rudy you want him to run in '08 by contributing now.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

NYT: Energy Speech, $1M $2M Fundraiser, Education Policy, Oh My!

All packed into this blockbuster of a report from Patrick Healy, who covers the Rudy beat for the New York Times.

Read the whole thing.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

About Ken Langone

Ken Langone is the finance chairman of Solutions America, Mayor Giuliani's leadership PAC. Should the Mayor run, he will undoubtedly play an important role in his campaign. Here's more about the Home Depot founder who may help make Rudy our next President:

Kenneth Langone is the founder, chairman and CEO of Invemed Associates LLC, a New York Stock Exchange member firm engaged in investment banking and brokerage. Mr. Langone is also the founder of the nation-wide home improvement retailer, Home Depot which he founded in 1978. He received a B.A. from Bucknell University in 1957 and an M.B.A. from New York University’s Stern School of Business in 1960. Currently he is the vice chairman of the Board of Overseers of the Stern School of Business, chairman of the Board of Trustees of New York University Medical School and a member of the Board of Trustees of New York University and its executive committee.
Read more here.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Ken Mehlman Attends $1M Giuliani Fundraiser

Republican Party chair Ken Mehlman attended tonight's big Solutions America shindig in midtown tonight. Before you get too excited, Hotline On Call notes this is a courtesy he is apparently extending to all WH'08ers.

On Call provides plenty of additional flavor. 175 people were expected to attend the fundraiser, which is expected to do $1 million. (Were you one of the 175? E-mail rudy blogger at g mail dot com with your account of tonight's happenings. Anonymity guaranteed.) Tomorrow, Solutions America will cut its next round of checks to 2006 candidates, for a total of $100,000. Also in attendance were key Congressional candidates benefiting from Hizzoner's munificence, including Michelle Bachmann (MN-06), Jeff Lamberti (IA-03), David McSweeney (IL-08), and Ralph Norman (SC-05).

Marc Ambinder also spells out the Mayor's next round of political travel:

Next month, Giuliani plans a three-day campaign marathon across the country, starting with a fundraiser for Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH). The trip will take him to AR to campaign for Asa Hutchinson's gov campaign, to PA, where'll he return to help Sen. Rick Santorum (R), and to MD, where he'll assist Gov. Bob Ehrlich. Between now and then, Giuliani has several campaign stops planned -- he's in TX later this week for TX 17 GOP nominee Van Taylor and the Dallas Co. GOP. He'll also host two Get Motivated seminars, including one tomorrow in Oklahoma City.
And Rudy's getting a Web site, but no blog. We'll be more than happy to corner that market.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Giuliani Lays Out Energy Agenda

Rudy Giuliani coupled his fundraiser tonight with some meaty policy discussion, giving a speech on energy to the Manhattan Institute. Anyone who has read Fred Siegel's The Prince of the City knows well how influential the Institute was in changing the intellectual climate of the city in the early '90s, preparing it for Rudyism.

Stepping up his political visibility as he contemplates a run for president, former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani laid out an energy strategy Tuesday that calls for more use of nuclear power and ethanol.

Speaking to the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, Giuliani called for a comprehensive effort to wean the nation from petroleum. The Republican said there was no national strategy to do so, but avoided criticizing President Bush and congressional leaders.

This next part highlights what I think is Rudy's strong suit as a leader.

Giuliani said the best way for the U.S. to end its reliance on foreign oil is to diversify its own sources of energy.

"I think you can be independent by being diversified, the way many of you are familiar with a terrific portfolio," he said.

He doesn't overpromise. There is no grandiose talk of an "Apollo program" for energy independence or the plodding consultant speak that was Hillary Clinton's much-jeered remarks to the Take Back America conference. Just conversational straight talk.

He's going to do very well in the debates, particularly against McCain and Allen.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Monday, June 12, 2006

Solutions America Fundraiser Tomorrow in New York

Tomorrow, Rudy Giuliani has his coming out for the '06 cycle as he raises money in New York City for his Solutions America PAC.

Will you be attending or do you know someone who will be attending? Send in your account of this exciting event to rudy blogger at g mail dot com. (Anonymity guaranteed.) Let's see if our budding readership can scoop The Politicker.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Charlie Cook Blowback Makes the Hotline

Charlie Cook's assessment of frontrunner Rudy Giuliani and underdog John McCain is not going unchallenged:

GIULIANI: Not Cooked Yet

Righty supporters of ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) were not happy with Charlie Cook's latest assessment of Giuliani's chances in '08. The American Thinker believes Cook underestimates GOP discomfort with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): "Giuliani may decide that Cook is right and not compete, in which case his analysis may be valid. What Cook misses is that many Republicans are not enthusiastic about McCain, but would accept him as the Republican candidate most likely to beat Hillary Clinton, if she were the Democratic nominee. But what Cook is missing is that among many of these same folks who would accept McCain, Giuliani is considered a better alternative, and a stronger candidate in a general election were he nominated."

The unofficial GiulianiBlog looks at online polls at hard right Free Republic and also concludes that Giuliani is more acceptable to the GOP base than McCain: "These are the results of polls taken on Free Republic, a destination that makes even conservatives in the blogosphere blanch. And while a significant chunk say they'd go third party with Rudy (they're Tancredoites, analogous to the Feingold backers on Daily Kos), just look at those McCain numbers. More Freepers would go third party than vote for McCain. Fully a third of Freepers would be willing to back Rudy but not McCain in a general election. If the pro-life, anti-illegal immigrant core of the party is given a clear choice between Rudy and McCain, they'll pick Rudy by a mile."

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Get All the Latest Rudy News

Are you already obsessing over '08 and want all the latest hard news about our next President delivered straight to your inbox? Sign up for a once-daily Giuliani Blog email update, containing all the news from this blog in the last 24 hours. This is an exciting time to be involved because bloggers can really impact the debate. Sign up today:

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Saturday, June 10, 2006

Charlie Cook Strikes (Out) Again

There he goes again:

It strikes me as extremely unlikely that the GOP will nominate someone who favors abortion rights and supported gay-rights and gun-control measures as New York's mayor. Therefore, it is doubtful that Giuliani will run. With Hizzoner out of the mix, McCain jumped to 37 percent, Romney came in second with 10 percent, Gingrich got 9 percent, Pataki climbed to 6 percent, Frist and Allen each had 5 percent, Tancredo still had 3 percent, and Brownback trailed with 2 percent.
Dismissing Rudy as a possibility for '08 requires going so far as to disavow the results of your own poll -- and every poll -- that shows Rudy Giuliani at or near the top of the primary pack. It's downright weird.

I'm a Rudy partisan. I don't agree with Cook's conclusions. And that would be par for the course -- except for the fact that Cook can't be bothered to back up his blanket assertions with survey research. Despite the fact that Rudy is in a stronger position than McCain according to most polling, Cook categorically states Rudy is anathema and won't run -- end of discussion. This is an untenable position for a serious political analyst.

All of the statements we make here at Giuliani Blog are backed up with numbers -- numbers Cook either hasn't seen or willfully ignores. With all the numbers in agreement, a quick tutorial for Mr. Cook is below:
  1. Rudy is a whopping 16 points more popular with Republicans than McCain, and is the most popular politician in America amongst Evangelicals, according to the Quinnipiac thermometer survey released this week.
  2. Rudy is the candidate of strong Bush approvers, and McCain is the candidate of Bush-disapprovers within the GOP, according to the Diageo-Hotline poll. The poll also found low favorability ratings for McCain amongst Republicans.
  3. The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll released last month showed Rudy capturing 86% of the Republican vote against Hillary compared to McCain's 79%.
  4. The Pew typology survey from last year is an old data point, but it shows Rudy leading McCain in favorability amongst all conservative groups, while McCain edges out Rudy in favorability with Democrats.
  5. Now, let's turn to some of the online polls, which enable us to drill down the super-activists who would be most concerned with the Mayor's position on abortion, gay rights, and guns. Let's start with yesterday's find: fully a third of Freepers would support Rudy but oppose McCain in a general election.
  6. Commenter Argo points to the GOP Bloggers straw poll, which showed McCain with one of the highest unfavorable ratings of any GOP candidate.
Did I miss anything?

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Rudy Giuliani Picks His Five Favorite Biographies

Is this part of Rudy's stealth, non-political pre-presidential campaign? You decide.

Via Ann Althouse, who notes that the selections seem to be those of a guy running for something.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Friday, June 09, 2006

Freepers for Rudy, Continued

Why there is no doubt in my mind that McCain will not be the nominee:

Composite Opinion
Third Party 39.1% 2,598
McCain 34.8% 2,313
Sit it out 13.3% 882
Undecided 8.1% 539
Hillary 4.8% 316


Composite Opinion
Rudy 67.7% 1,524
Third party 21.9% 494
Sit it out 4.4% 100
Undecided 3.4% 77
Hillary 2.5% 57


These are the results of polls taken on Free Republic, a destination that makes even conservatives in the blogosphere blanch. And while a significant chunk say they'd go third party with Rudy (they're Tancredoites, analogous to the Feingold backers on Daily Kos), just look at those McCain numbers. More Freepers would go third party than vote for McCain. Fully a third of Freepers would be willing to back Rudy but not McCain in a general election.

Wow. Just wow.

A huge part of the BDBM C.W. on '08 is that McCain is likely to beat Rudy because of the abortion issue. Polls like this fly in the face of this -- and this is important. Why? Because it totally blows away the underpinnings of more than half of what's written about WH'08 by the mainstream media. If the pro-life, anti-illegal immigrant core of the party is given a clear choice between Rudy and McCain, they'll pick Rudy by a mile.

If McCain is forced down the party's throat, the right wing will shear off. To a large degree, Rudy keeps them there -- while getting you all the independents McCain would have gotten you.

Rank-and-file Republicans understand this. The media doesn't.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

The Chicago Visit

More color on Wednesday night's fundraiser.

UPDATE: $65K. Sweet.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Even More Important, The Next Prez's Rankings...

After my post on polls, let's take a look at another important indicator: the Next Prez's blog rankings. He's another one who doesn't buy the McCain hype, and he makes an interesting point about the Arizona prima donna:

1. Rudy Giuliani (steady) -- the conventional wisdom is that he's too liberal to win the Republican nomination, but he polls well on conservative websites along with surveys of the general public.

2. John McCain (falling) -- solid support for now, but with Giuliani vying for the backing of moderate Republicans, McCain is unlikely to win voters away from lesser known conservative challengers as they gain momentum.
Rudy is the more authentically moderate candidate, and as Strategic Vision's statewide polling suggests, McCain may be vulnerable to primary voters shopping around for a mainstream conservative candidate. His support is a mile wide and an inch deep. In the end, I think he's a 15% candidate -- Rudy cuts into his support among moderates and Romney cuts into his support among pro-business conservatives.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Two Contradictory National Polls, +8 in WI

Two days, two major polls on the Republican nomination. Rudy leads in one 29-24, and McCain leads the other 29-24.

First, Gallup:

Gallup Poll. June 1-4, 2006. N=419 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.

Rudy Giuliani 29
John McCain 24
Newt Gingrich 8
Mitt Romney 6
Bill Frist 6
George Allen 5
Sam Brownback 2
Mike Huckabee 2
George Pataki 1
Someone else 3
None (vol.) 4
All/Any (vol.) 1
Unsure 9
Charlie Cook's poll has always showed it tied or McCain slightly ahead when other polls have shown Giuliani up. This one is no exception:
Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. June 1-4, 2006. N=874 registered voters nationwide.

John McCain 29
Rudy Giuliani 24
Mitt Romney 8
Newt Gingrich 6
Bill Frist 5
George Pataki 4
George Allen 3
Tom Tancredo 3
Sam Brownback 1
Chuck Hagel 1
Mike Huckabee -
Unsure 15
Note: Crosstabs and PowerPoint on the Cook poll supposedly coming today.

Another wrinkle in the Gallup poll, which is now behind a subscriber wall: it showed Giuliani's lead narrowing to 2 when Republican leaners were excluded. This frankly runs counter to polls showing more active and intense Republicans supporting Rudy over McCain, but I suspect we won't really know the answer until someone conducts a poll of 800 to 1,200 likely Republican voters based on past vote history and voter registration.

Also, Strategic Vision (I love them) is out with a new Wisconsin poll showing Mark Green up by a point in the Governor's race and Rudy up by 8 in the Republican primary:
24. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Tommy Thompson excluded; Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 38%
John McCain 30%
George Allen 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 13%
Again, bizarelly, Condi hurts McCain when she's included. Is McCain particularly vulnerable to a spoiler candidacy?

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Giuliani Adjusts WH'08 Decision Timeline

Another interesting thing to come out of Wednesday night's McSweeney event is that Rudy said he would decide on making the race in "six to eight months." That places his decision point anywhere between early December and early February, pretty much when any candidate would have to pull the trigger on an exploratory committee.

Previously, Rudy has said he would decide in a year, which could have put his decision in the spring -- a few months too late.

Giuliani also said he would run as a Republican. No news there.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Thursday, June 08, 2006

VIDEO: Rudy in Chicago

CBS's Chicago affiliate has great coverage of tonight's McSweeney for Congress event.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

"Don't Bet Against Rudy"

Richard Baehr makes the case here.

Is conventional wisdom gelling on this? The social federalism rationale has been repeated so often, even I'm starting to find it a yawner, which means it might be starting to cut through. (It's argued by Baehr, and by Political Prognostications, and is preceded by Baseball Crank's August 2005 classic and blog comment threads even before then.)

From the discussions Baehr relays in his piece, it seems that there is a large group of pro-business, pro-GWOT conservatives (and even savvy social conservatives) who a) agree that McCain is unacceptable, and b) think an outsider like Rudy or Romney is the answer.

Favorite anecdote:

DeLay introduced Giuliani as the man on my right (in terms of seating). When Giuliani got up to speak, he told the audience that he might have to remind some voters in the years ahead of Congressman DeLay's description, that he was to the right of Tom DeLay.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

O, To Be a Fly on the Wall at Davio's...

This is interesting. Remember the fabled Rudy-McCain dinner a while back? Now Rudy and Mitt have been caught in the act. From Tuesday's Track:

What, may we ask, was on the table for discussion the other night when Gov. Mitt Romney and former Big Apple Mayor Rudy Giuliani were holed up in a private room at Davio’s???
Our eatery spies report that the pair of GOP party guys dined with Giuliani’s aides and Mitt’s bride, Ann, and that the attentive servers were kept at bay for some time between courses.
Now, you know the polls have the former Apple mayor second only to war hero Sen. John McCain to replace Dubya. Romney ranks fifth behind Newt Gingrich and Bill Frist, leading to speculation that Mitt may be a primo candidate for the No. 2 slot.

So, ya think the words “vice president” were brought up between the appetizers and dessert?
“Yes,” said Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom. “They’re both big fans of Dick Cheney.”
Fehrnstrom, by the way, claims the political bread-breaking was “a social dinner.”
“The Governor and Rudy Giuliani are good friends who get together from time to time, and this was yet another occasion for them to catch up with each other,” he said.

It would be nice if Romney bowed to reality, wouldn't it?

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Monday, June 05, 2006

Rudy: Like a Balmy, Late Spring Day (and Check Out Those Evangelical Numbers!)

I really like Quinnipiac's thermometer ratings and not just because of the results that came out today. The poll gives us a much more granular read on what different subgroups are thinking about 2008 than a poll of quick, binary choices can give us as it allows respondents to score themselves on a spectrum about their feelings towards candidates.

The banner headline is that Giuliani and McCain are the most popular politicians in America, and they have more crossover support than Hillary Clinton, yadda yadda yadda. But that is of almost no significance to where we are at this point.

The national numbers don't matter. It doesn't matter that Rudy is seven points "warmer" than McCain overall, and McCain's sheen is quickly wearing off, particularly among Democrats, amongst whom he's fallen by 4 "degrees" since the last poll.

Instead, look at the numbers for Republicans, and even more to the point, Evangelicals.

Here are the Quinnipiac thermometer ratings, sorted by all-important Republican support:

            Rep     Dem     Ind     Evang
Rice 75.8 43.0 53.1 64.6
Bush 73.6 22.2 39.2 60.5
Giuliani 73.5 57.5` 61.1 66.2
Cheney 65.2 24.2 36.6 54.4
Rumsfeld 62.2 26.9 38.3 51.9
Allen 58.4 40.3 44.6 54.6
McCain 56.0 56.7 55.2 57.0
Romney 54.7 40.1 49.2 47.3
Frist 53.7 31.2 40.9 51.6
Warner 46.8 47.5 46.6 46.2
Bayh 44.0 50.5 47.7 47.1
Obama 42.0 71.3 59.2 46.5
Biden 39.7 56.3 48.5 43.7
Dodd 39.5 48.6 46.7 42.8
Feingold 36.7 51.4 45.8 39.5
Edwards 35.9 60.8 50.3 43.8
Kerry 25.8 61.0 46.4 33.9
Clinton 25.2 72.0 48.9 35.3
Gore 24.5 63.6 45.7 35.5
Sixteen degrees warmer than McCain among Republicans. The most popular leader with Evangelicals in America. Wow.

In a Republican primary where only Democrats, Independents, and New York Times editorial board members could vote, McCain would be the prohibitive frontrunner. Unfortunately for John Weaver and Mike Dennehy, we do not live in such a world.

The question is, for how much longer can the Rudy-doubters in political circles and in the press ignore these numbers? Because John McCain is looking more and more like John Connally with each passing day.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Giuliani Gives Thumbs Down to DHS Funding Changes

Though criticizing his former understudy Michael Chertoff must have been uncomfortable, Giuliani did what needed to be done here:

NEW YORK (AP) — Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani spoke out Monday for the first time about the Department of Homeland Security's decision to slash anti-terrorism funding for New York, blaming poor decision making and "a certain level of incompetence."

But Giuliani, a Republican, said he didn't believe political considerations had led to the 40 percent cut and said he was encouraged by Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff's willingness to review the agency's decision.

"I think the decision was wrong from everything I know about it," Giuliani said in an interview with The Associated Press. "You have to assume we are a big target, because terrorists want to hit a big target and kill a lot of people with spectacular effect."

More on the "incompetence" remark:
"We've got the Empire State Building, the Statue of Liberty and the (New York) Stock Exchange," Giuliani argued. "They just incompetently evaluated their own criteria."
Why did it take Giuliani till Monday to comment on an issue that hits so dead-center for him. For that matter, why doesn't he seem to comment on many news-of-the-day type items, or his laissez-faire approach to dog-and-pony show aspects of Presidential politics. This might help explain it:
"I don't want to interfere," he said. "I just know from my days as mayor that what you don't need is to have people interfere."

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Sunday, June 04, 2006

What Dave Says...

Dave is a D.C. lawyer and blogger who is also following the race very closely. I really can't improve much on what he says here, which is too important not to reprint in full:

Maybe a Giuliani candidacy makes sense after all. Kelsey Grammer supports him. So does National Review's J-Pod. As I detailed in an earlier post, both McCain and Romney send Republican voters in the double-digits over to Hillary. Each hovers around 80 percent Republican support, far from GWB's whopping 93 percent of the GOP vote. Giuliani, on the other hand, garners between 85 and 90 percent Republican support in a matchup against Hillary. The good mayor also takes nearly 20 percent of Democrats and beats the New York senator by some ridiculous margin among independents. Yes, Rudy would lose a few dark-red voters in the deep south and west, but those states are going to go Republican anyway. The net gain Giuliani would experience nationally due to increasing the GOP margin from 2004 among Democrats and independents would yield an electoral sweep. All of the electoral-rich light-blue states filled with ethnic Catholics and Reagan Democrats --- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota --- would go for Rudy, as would New Hampshire. And Rudy would have a real shot at winning Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware, states that showed signs of a weakened blue hue in 2004. Giuliani's just the kind of Republican that could turn those states red, if only for one election. I suspect a Rudy/Hillary contest would have a result similar to the Bush/Dukakis matchup of 1988: a 7-10 point win for the Republican coinciding with a 40-state landslide in the electoral college.

The question of why nearly 90 percent of Republicans are sticking by the mayor despite his views on cultural matters is one that needs to be answered. Do these Republicans know about Rudy's views on issues like abortion? I have a hard time believing they don't; it's one of the things the MSM loves to remind us about Rudy. Perhaps Rudy just gets along so well with the GOP base that conservatives assume that any attempt to lead them would result in a conversion on the big social issues, like abortion, gay marriage, the Second Amendment, and immigration. The big question now is whether Rudy is willing to do the heavy lifting on these issues in order to appease a base that wants to vote for him. And the even bigger question is whether Rudy will run; he's been doing very little with regards to a presidential campaign, while McCain's been doing a lot.
Let me take a stab at this one, because it's a source of great puzzlement to media and politico types who can't figure out why pro-lifers would be so accepting of a pro-choice candidate.

First, issues aren't everything. In Presidential elections especially, people vote on likeability, attributes, and broad values (not just moral values). Joe Klein comes at this from a different perspective, but to get the general gist of this, read his latest, Politics Lost. For decades, Democratic consultants have been honing their candidates' issue checklists, maximizing opportunities for near-total agreement with the electorate. Yet they keep losing elections because they keep nominating candidates who are too wonkish, insincere and out of touch. These broad strokes are what voters pay attention to, and they overwhelm the specifics every time.

Because Rudy has such an established persona, issues -- even hot-button issues -- are secondary to this appeal. For further proof, look no further than McCain 2000 -- how could liberals support someone who was in many ways a lifelong conservative? It wasn't cognitive dissonance so much as the fact that McCain liked to pick fights with other conservatives. Attributes -- being a maverick, not towing the party line -- overwhelmed the issues.

Beltway types tend to look at Rudy and instantly think of Arlen Specter's asterisk of a presidential campaign in '96. Specter was and is a pro-choice, pro-gay rights Republican who made no bones about it in seeking the Presidential nomination. But aside from his grilling of Anita Hill, Specter was an unknown -- and voters had no other way to evaluate him aside from his stated positions on issues, which were anathema to the base. This is definitely not the case with Rudy.

As Rudy is defined more in terms of candidate than national hero, his social positions could well take center stage. Though not as pessimistic as J-Pod (who advocates an abortion flip-flop), it's clear that Rudy cannot run on a Specter-like crusade to move the party to the center.

To maintain his sky-high favorables among Republicans, Rudy must make clear that while personally pro-choice, he would do no harm to the pro-life, pro-family cause -- signaling a willingness to sign any piece of Federal legislation on life that could come up during his term (he's gotta flip on PBA). This is not a position without precedent. Look at Harry Reid, who is personally pro-life, but who falls in line with the Caucus when the issue comes up, opposing both Roberts and Alito.

Also, it doesn't bear repeating for regular readers of this blog, but Rudy is looking pretty good when compared to McCain. Again, it has nothing to do with issues. It has to do with the fact that with McCain (R-Himself), you always have to look over your shoulder. Will he take a strong stand for conservative judges, or pull another G-14 stunt, or pay lip service to conservatives while deep-sixing the nomination of William Haynes? You simply never know. Rudy is helped by his reputation for taking clear positions -- even when you don't agree with him.

Even if there is a big brouhaha over the social issues, Rudy's opponents will have to move mountains to dislodge the heroic -- and frankly Presidential -- persona he has earned for himself.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Saturday, June 03, 2006

McCain Most Likely to Trigger a Third Party

Earlier this week, I asked RedStaters which '08 candidate was most likely to trigger a third party. The results:

Which of these candidates would be most likely to trigger a serious third party?

· Sen. John McCain 53%
· Mayor Rudy Giuliani 20%
· Gov. Mitt Romney 3%
· Sen. George Allen 1%
· None 21%

Votes: 64
Results | Other Polls

That's interesting, because RedStaters are staunchly pro-life, yet they believe that McCain would most likely trigger a third party mutiny.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Friday, June 02, 2006

Great Coverage in Mid-Michigan

I wouldn't note this, except for the fact that Rudy's speech in Saginaw earlier in the week seems to have scored more than the perfunctory writeup or traffic report in each of the local papers, instead meriting half a dozen articles.

This Midland Daily News column is typical, entitled "Giuliani had a lot of charisma, wowed crowd." Though I didn't quite know about this personal detail:

He left the stage in mid-speech for a restroom break, a problem since his bout with prostate cancer seven years ago. But when he returned, he spoke of having opportunities that arise from adversity, such as the fact that his prostate cancer was detected early enough for the doctors to do something about it. He put a very human, and a very honest, face to a problem we often only read about.
Not something you'd want to have happen during an acceptance speech or debate, but how many other politicians would have the confidence to pull that off?

More local coverage here, here, here, here, and here. That's six pieces about a single event.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

B R E A K I N G: Cillizza Now Believes Rudy Giuliani Will Run

In what has to be seen as a major development for Rudy's Beltway street cred, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, long a purveyor of bien-pensant McCainiac sentiment, now believes the Mayor is leaning towards running:

Rudy Giuliani: Count us in the camp of folks who believe the former New York City mayor is leaning toward a presidential bid -- a major change from where we stood just a few months ago. Why? Because of events like the one next Wednesday in Chicago where Giuliani will collect cash for the campaign of David McSweeney, the Republican nominee against Rep. Melissa Bean (D) in the state's 8th House District. The McSweeney event is the latest in a series of fundraisers for congressional candidates that Giuliani has headlined over the past few months -- yeoman's work that only politicians with an eye on higher office are willing to sign up for. Polling shows that he would be the frontrunner if he decides to run, but his liberal positions on social issues make him an underdog (at best) for the party's nomination. (For more on Hizzoner, make sure to read The Fix's arguments for and against a Giuliani bid.)

No word on whether McCain's liberal positions on most everything else make him an underdog (at best) for the nomination.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:

Thursday, June 01, 2006

Rudy: Hot as the Stock Show in Denver

From the Rocky Mountain News:

If you wondered why you crawled to work on I-25, I-70 or any of several thoroughfares leading into downtown this morning, blame it on the "Get Motivated" event.

The day-long seminar, being held at both the Pepsi Center and the Denver Coliseum, is expected to draw up to 16,000 people.

It features high-powered speakers Zig Ziglar, Steve Forbes, Suze Orman, Tom Hopkins, Mike Shanahan, Colin Powell and Rudolph Giuliani.

The seminar will run from 8 a.m. to 4:45 p.m. today and traffic has been crawling on the interstates, Broadway, Brighton Boulevard, Colfax Avenue and Speer Boulevard all morning.

Denver police spokesman Sonny Jackson said it is equivalent to the Stock Show and the traffic is reflective of it.

If you want to see Rudy Giuliani speak, and maybe even offer him some spontaneous encouragement to run, find a Get Motivated seminar near you.

Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day: