Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Rudy would beat Edwards in electoral blowout

Over at Race42008, I crunch the numbers and find that Rudy would electorally obliterate prospective Democratic presidential nominee, John Edwards:

In a matchup between Edwards and Giuliani, Rudy trounces Edwards in the electoral college, winning 438 electoral votes to Edwards’ 100. Edwards wins just six states against Giuliani: CA, WA, WI, IA, MO, VT, and of course DC.

A Giuliani/Edwards race finds Rudy outperforming Bush heavily in the west. Rudy’s freedom-based Republicanism trounces Edwards’ Democratic populism in the states that comprised the base of the Goldwater/Reagan GOP. AZ, NV, and CO go from purple to a nice, bright red, while OR and HI actually go from blue to red. In fact, Rudy takes everything west of the Missouri River against Edwards, with the exception of WA and CA, both of which Edwards wins by no more than a single percentage point. It’s highly possible that Rudy would win the entire western half of the country in a matchup against Edwards due to the latter’s anti-market, anti-trade views and Rudy’s rep as a leave-me-alone Republican.

Moving east, we find Edwards’ base in the moderate south and the midwest. Edwards wins WI, IA, and MO, and almost wins AR, TN, WV, OH, MI, and IL. Rudy, however, holds the deep south and FL. The results in the south are interesting, as the last time a northern Republican faced off against a southern Democrat — 1976 — the Dems won the electoral college largely by denying Ford what we now consider the Republican south. But over the course of the last thirty years, the south has become so heavily Republican that a New York GOPer can now beat a North Carolina Democrat in the deepest parts of the region.

Moving north, Rudy demolishes Edwards in the tri-state area of NY/PA/NJ. It’s not even close. And Rudy’s margins in those states is similar to his margin in FL, which is demographically similar and would be out of reach for Edwards in this matchup. Finally, Rudy narrowly wins most of the blue states on the east coast, ceding VT to the former senator.

In order to beat Rudy, Edwards would first have to hold the west coast and win all of the close states in the midwest and moderate south. Even if Edwards holds the six states SurveyUSA shows him winning against Rudy, and flips the close states of HI, IL, MI, OH, TN, AR, and WV, Rudy still wins 354 electoral votes, due largely to his strength in FL and the tri-state area. At this point, Edwards would have to try and siphon away other light red Rudy states, like MN, VA, MD, ME, and RI. It’s technically possible for Edwards to get to 270 against Rudy, but the playing field definitely favors the GOP in such a matchup.

As I put it over at R4'08, Rudy is strong in all the right places, and Edwards is weak in all the right places, to signal a Giuliani blowout in a general election matchup.

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