Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Rudy v. Hillary: Barone runs the numbers

The incomparable psephologist Michael Barone slices and dices the numbers on a Giuliani vs. Clinton match-up. Although the SurveyUSA poll he examines is rather old, it has the state-level detail required for any serious discussion of a presidential election.

Barone's whole analysis, which he has organized by region, is worth a read. The abbreviated version is that Giuliani puts into play several big states (electorally speaking) that went Democratic in 2004: beyond the obvious New York (31 electoral votes) and New Jersey (15), there is Pennsylvania (21) and a handful of smaller states. In states that went GOP in 2004, Clinton only puts about half the number of electoral votes in play, mainly in Virginia (13), Missouri (11) and Louisiana (9).

Just as important — since Bush did win 286 electoral votes in 2004, with 270 necessary — is Giuliani's ability to solidify the GOP's position in key states. His margin over Clinton improves from Bush's margin over Kerry in Florida (27 EVs), Ohio (20), Arizona (10) and Colorado (9). The only Kerry states that Clinton shores up are her home state of Illinois (21) and Wisconsin (10).

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