Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Iowa and New Hampshire Ready to Set Primary Dates

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

A campaign worker for Republican Presidential Candidate Ron Paul places a sign along a highway near the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames, Iowa, August 11, 2007.

Fox News is reporting that New Hampshire and Iowa are about ready to set their GOP primary and caucus dates.

The early state elections prior to Super Duper Tuesday February 5, 2008 would thus break down:

  • January 5 - Iowa Caucus
  • January 12 - New Hampshire Primary
  • January 19 - South Carolina and Nevada
  • January 29 - Florida

So, what does this mean for Rudy and his quest for the GOP nomination?

1. Rudy will be “ON AIR” right after Christmas.

2. Californians will begin voting by mail prior to the New Hampshire Primary - this diluting the influence effects of all of the early primaries on California voters. Advantage Giuliani.

3. Weather and winter conditions may play a role in the GOP nomination process - although the early elections/caucuses are on Saturday which may aid turnout some.

4. Rudy will have the early advantage of campaign resources since he has more cash on hand than any other candidate. Look for heavy media buys in Florida and Super Tuesday states, including Illinois and Florida.

5. This calendar will favor Rudy and somewhat Romney. An earlier calendar may persuade Fred Thompson to return to Law and Order. Newt Gingrich can forget about it. If you have no money, you won’t be able to go on television and into the mailbox.

Stay tuned…….

Fresh from the Republican Debates, Rudy Giuliani waits to be introduced at a town hall style meeting at the Bettendorf High School, in Bettendorf, Iowa on August 7.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Ames Straw Poll is Over

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Why Rudy Did Not Go To Ames #1

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Grassley - Mistake for Rudy to Skip Ames Straw Poll?

Rudy Giuliani Watch: John Edwards Attacks Rudy Over 9/11

Representative Charles Rangel Calls Rudy Giuliani a Bum

In California Giuliani Now Leads Thompson 2 to 1 and Romney 4 to 1

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Mitt Romney HYPOCRITICALLY Attacks Giuliani on Illegal Immigration

Some Giuliani After Dark

John Edwards Calls Rudy Giuliani - “Bush on Steroids”

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Is Barack Obama Plagiarising Rudy?

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Why The You Tube Debate is Flawed

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy’s Commitment to Health Care

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Democrats Want NANNY Government to Control Your Life

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The You Tube Debate Flap Continues With CNN Attempting to Reschedule Debate

The Rudy Giuliani Archive


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10 Comments:

At 1:24 PM, Blogger Roland Ilsen said...

The entire US population should have forge-proof ID cards. If all of us don’t have IDs, illeglas may claim to be citizens and not needing an ID. Citizens should have blue IDs, with red Ids for foreigners with due departure date indicated. The ID should be shown when voting, applying for a job, etc.
I am an immigrant, as is my wife, coming from two very different countries. Our children are Americans, not ethnic-Americans. I am in favor of legal immigration and the US continuing being a melting pot of legal immigrants. I am against people who are felons living in the US with forged federal documents and congregating in ethnic enclaves demanding to be addressed in their own language.

 
At 5:33 PM, Blogger Rob said...

SUMMARY: Unless something changes, Clinton will win the Democratic party nomination, Romney (!) will win several states that vote in January, but Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), which includes California and New York (Giuliani strongholds) will probably decide the Republican party nomination (Thompson is an X-factor).

I think Iowa (Jan. 14), Michigan (Jan. 15), South Carolina (Jan. 19/29), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22, but could move up), Florida (Jan. 29), California (Feb. 5) and New York (Feb. 5) will likely determine the Presidential candidates for November 2008. The Georgia Republican and Democratic primaries are February 5, 2008, and could be key in the GOP nomination. The Virginia and D.C. Republican and Democratic primaries are February 12, 2008, and may be a factor in the GOP nomination if Super Tuesday doesn't produce a front-runner. The Massachusetts and Texas Republican and Democratic primaries are March 4, 2008.

I have been following the state-by-state polling using a Wikipedia site that collects and tracks such data (sources for all polls are fully attributed). (FYI, I'm the "chart guy" on these sites.) I provide my personal observations of the trends for each race below.

REPUBLICANS
====Iowa====
Romney has a solid 15 point lead on everyone else, and about 30-35% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Iowa

====Michigan====
Romney has a solid 9 point lead on everyone else, and about 30% of voters are still undecided and Thompson is showing strength.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Michigan

====South Carolina====
Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-25% of the vote, and over 30% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#South_Carolina

====Nevada====
Romney has a 5 point lead on Thompson and they are running neck-in-neck, and about 25% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada

====New Hampshire====
Romney has a 10 point lead on everyone else, and about 20% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

====Florida====
Similar to South Carolina, Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-30% of the vote, and over 25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Florida

====California====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 30% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has nearly crossed the 20% mark, and about 20-25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#California

====New York====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 45% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has crossed the 10% mark, and about 25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_York


DEMOCRATS
====Iowa====
Clinton is slowly building and recently passed Edwards. Obama is within 5 points and keeping pace with Clinton. 30% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Iowa

====Michigan====
Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with 20-25% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Michigan

====South Carolina====
Clinton leads Obama by about 5 points. About 20-25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#South_Carolina

====Nevada====
Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with about 30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada

====New Hampshire====
Clinton has expanded her lead to about 15 points on Obama with about 20-30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

====Florida====
Clinton commands a 20% lead on Obama with about 25-30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Florida

====California====
Clinton has a 30% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#California

====New York====
Clinton has a 30-40% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_York

 
At 2:32 PM, Blogger Michael said...

I just read about this on GlobalGrind.com. Something does need to be done about illegal immigration and it needs to start with America not making it almost impossible to become a citizen. I'm feelin Giuliani on the fact that those illegal immigrants who have not committed crimes need help in gaining their citizenship.

 
At 12:12 AM, Blogger WebuyHousesEasy said...

The mindless sheep in america need to wake up and do some research! find out what very basic freedoms that have been already stripped away from us in the last 5 yrs! Do you not believe the Constitution and the bill of rights? We go to war on the idea of giving freedom and liberty to other nations but fear fighting freedom and liberty in our own country. It amazes me how much americans are allowing to be taken from us. We need a TRUE PATRIOT and leader like Ron Paul to restore our constitution

 
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