Giuliani Notes: Pennsylvania - Rudy Beats Hillary 47% - 43%

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

The latest Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Poll is out with Mayor Rudy Giuliani beating both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in general election head to head match-ups.

The General Election Nuts:

Rudy - 47%

Hillary - 43 %

Rudy - 45%

Obama - 40%

The GOP Primary NUTS:

Rudy - 28%

McCain - 11%

Thompson - 10%

Romney - 9%

Gingrich - 8%

Favorability:

• 50 - 44 percent for Clinton;
• 53 - 28 percent for Giuliani
• 52 - 40 percent for Gore;
• 44 - 28 percent for McCain;
• 44 - 19 percent for Obama;
• 45 - 26 percent for Edwards;
• 63 percent haven’t heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
• For Romney, 62 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion.

The Mayor is doing extremely well in Pennyslvania and certainly will put the state in play when he receives the GOP nomination.

Rudy mentioned and played the ELECTABILITY CARD yesterday in California.

Hizzoner is RIGHT.

Update:

Giuliani will speak at the Montoursville High, Pennsylvania commencement

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani, who consoled Montoursville High students amid tragedy a decade earlier, will give the school’s commencement address Sunday, the school said.

Giuliani wrote a to those in the Class of 1997’s baccalaureate program after 16 students and five chaperones en route to Paris were killed in the crash of TWA Flight 800 on July 17, 1996.

“There was a strong relationship between New York City and Montoursville during that time,” Montoursville Superintendent Dr. Albert J. Cunningham said. “The feelings still run deep.”

Giuliani traveled to Montoursville for an Aug. 17, 1996, memorial service for the Flight 800 victims, and brought the Combined Pipe and Drum Band and New York City Boys’ Choir.

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Giuliani Notes: Rudy 25% Romney 16% McCain 15% Thompson 12% in Latest Rasmussen National GOP Poll

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Rasmussen Reports: 2008 Republican Presidential Primary

Romney Catches McCain in National Poll for GOP Nomination

The immigration reform debate may be shaking up the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has inched past Arizona Senator John McCain for second place in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll. Just two weeks ago, Romney was in fourth place among GOP hopefuls.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top with 25% support. That’s essentially unchanged from last week. In fact, Giuliani has been at 25% or 26% in the polls for four straight weeks.

This week, Giuliani is followed by Romney at 16%, McCain at 15%, and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson at 12%. While Romney’s one-point edge over McCain is statistically insignificant, it’s worth noting that McCain had a six-point advantage over Romney just two weeks ago.

McCain, once considered the dominant frontrunner, has been strongly supportive of the immigration reform bill being debated in the Senate. That bill is unpopular with the general public—just 26% of voters favor its passage.

The GOP NUTS:

Rudy continues to lead by almost double digits as he has for months. Yet, the big news is McCain’s collapse and the rise of Mitt Romney.

Why?

Probably a number of factors:

1. McCain’s support of an unpopular Senate Illegal Immigration AMNESTY Bill

Romney has announced his strong opposition to the immigration bill and Giuliani called it a “hodgepodge… without any central focus.” Thompson said “We should scrap this bill and the whole debate until we can convince the American people that we have secured the borders or at least have made great headway.” Most Americans are willing to support an enforcement-only approach at this time.

2. Romney is on-air in a number of early primary states

3. McCain’s FLIP remarks about Bombing Iran among others

4. Fred Thompson’s “supposed” candidacy

Although Romney’s lead is statistically insignificant, will this spur Fred Thompson into the race, replacing McCain?

In the short term, how will this affect McCain’s second quarter fundraising?

Stay tuned…….

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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Slaps Edwards for Calling Global War on Terror a BUMPER STICKER

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Rudy slaps Democrat Presidential candidate John Edwards for calling the war on terror a “bumper sticker” slogan Bush used to justify everything from the abuses at the Abu Ghrab prison to the invasion of Iraq.

The Quote:

“[W]hen you go so far as to suggest that the global war on terror is a bumper sticker or slogan, it kind of makes the point that I’ve been making over and over again that the Democrats or at least some of them are in denial…”

Indeed Edwards is……

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Giuliani Notes: Iowa Poll Shows Romney Lead a BLIP

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Click here for larger graphics

Flap reported a few days ago a break-out by Mitt Romney in the Des Moines Register poll. Apparently this was a statistical abnormality or BLIP - especially since Fred Thompson and Newt Ginrich were not included in the poll.

The latest Iowa poll by Strategic Vision tells a different story:

• Mitt Romney 20%
• Rudy Giuliani 18%
• John McCain 16%
• Fred Thompson 10%
• Tommy Thompson 7%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Mike Huckabee 3%
• Sam Brownback 2%
• Tom Tancredo 2%
• Ron Paul 2%
• Duncan Hunter 1%
• Jim Gilmore 1%
• Chuck Hagel 1%
• Undecided 12%

Let’s now look at the Real Clear Politics summary poll for Iowa:

Click here for larger graphics

Without a doubt, the Mayor has fallen out of favor in the Iowa polls since March. However, he has stabilized over the past month and is in a virtual DEAD HEAT with Romney and McCain.

Iowa is a state that Mitt Romney MUST win. The Mittster wishes to catapult himself from the Iowa Caucuses on January 14th to Nevada on January 19th and then to New Hampshire on January 22nd. This is the Mitt-Mentum strategy.

Hizzoner, on the other hand, strategizes with a big win in Florida on January 29th to propel him to a knock-out win on February 5th with New York, New Jersey, California, Pennsylvania and Illinois. California has five times the GOP delegates as Iowa.

So, is Iowa even important to Rudy?

Perhaps

Click here for larger graphics

Will Rudy spend the $millions to compete in the Iowa Straw Poll or compete at all in the Iowa Caucuses?

Pundits will have to wait.

And wait for what?

Fred Thompson

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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Opposes Senate Immigration Bill

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani signs autographs after speaking in New York, Monday, May 21, 2007. Giuliani was there to receive the endorsement of local New York politicians for his 2008 presidential run.

Rudy opposes the now postponed Senate immigration bill.

The Quotes:

The former New York Mayor said he would like for there to be a system or database that would allow the government to “know everybody who is in the United States, who comes here from a foreign country”.

“If you make that your goal then everything follows from that or leads to that,” he added. “There should be a tamper proof id card, biometric id card that everyone who comes here from a foreign country should have. In order to make sure you identify everyone, in order to be secure.”

“Let’s see what happens in the debates they have now, the Senate has to debate it, the House as to debate it,” said Giuliani. “Let’s see if they can put something like that in, it that ends up giving us more security. The present version of the bill however … I don’t think that accomplishes that.”

This leaves McCain as the ONLY GOP Presidential candidate supporting the bill as submitted - out on an immigration limb that has little or no GOP voter base support.

McCain can make his quips about the Mittster but at the end of the Memorial Day recess he will have to either deliver and vote for an acceptable bill or………

And it is American National Security and not political endorsements that are driving the Mayor’s position.

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Giuliani Notes: Florida Moves Up Primary to January 29, 2008

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Republican presidential candidate former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani speaks at a community leadership forum luncheon in Orlando, Fla., Friday, May 18, 2007.

Florida moves up its Presidential primary election to January 29 with Governor Charlie Crist’s signing of legislation.

Advantage: Giuliani

Now, will South Carolina set in motion a move for their primary to be moved to Fall 2007?

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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Reborn?

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani speaks during a ‘town hall meeting’ at Oglethorpe University in Atlanta Wednesday, May 16, 2007 to reinforce a point he made earlier in South Carolina: that Republicans are best equipped to combat the threat of terrorism.

The American Spectator: Rudy Reborn

It is axiomatic that presidential candidates in the primary run toward their base- to the right for Republicans and left for Democrats — and then veer toward the center in the general election. This playbook is being carefully followed by candidates such as Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton. Both have abandoned moderation as he runs to the right on social issues, guns and campaign finance reform and she curries favor with the anti-war left by suggesting we “un-declare” war and immediately withdraw troops from Iraq. However, Rudy Giuliani is trying something quite different and if this week was any indication it may be the best shot he has at securing the nomination.

Jennifer Rubin has it RIGHT.

But, a multi-state early primary shift has made Rudy’s campaign strategy a reality. The traditional GOP primary states of New Hampshire and Iowa will dim in importance to the more diverse and moderate states of Florida and California.

Any appeal to the center and independents without offending the RIGHT will reward Rudy in November 2008.

After all, isn’t that the goal?

More Jennifer Rubin:

“Giuliani Tries to Set the Record Straight” - Human Events, May 8th, 2007

“Recap and Awards for Debate Winners” - Human Events, May 16th, 2007

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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Wins South Carolina GOP Debate

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) (L) and former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani talk before the start of a nationally televised Republican presidential debate from the Koger Center at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, South Carolina, May 15, 2007.

So, who won tonight's debate?

Flap will wait for the polls. But, is there any doubt?

McCain and Romney were smacking each other and Rudy looked like a President and his throw down of Ron Paul begs to be seen again:

From the Giuliani campaign:

“Tonight it was clear there was only one candidate on the stage ready to be President of the United States. Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s command of the issues and unifying, optimistic vision for the future of this country stood out in stark contrast – proving he is the strong leader these times demand. He will bring our Party and our country together to win the terrorists’ war on us and keep our economy strong and growing.”

Indeed

And the Fox News text message poll has Ron Paul winning......

Stay tuned.......

Update:

From The Corner:

A Bad Night for Romney [Ramesh Ponnuru]

Last time around, Romney won and Rudy lost; this time around, I'd say it was exactly the other way around, with McCain in the middle both times.

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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Smacks Down Rep. Ron Paul During GOP Debate

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Mayor Rudy Giuliani responds to Representative Ron Paul during the GOP Debate when he suggests that we invited 9/11 attack upon ourselves.

The WRATH of RUDY.......

You betcha.........

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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Clear GOP Debate Winner in Survey USA Poll

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani, former New York City mayor, answers a question during the first Republican presidential primary debate of the 2008 election at the Ronald Reagan Library, Thursday, May 3, 2007, in Simi Valley, Calif.

Survey USA: Who Won CA Republican Presidential Debate?

Former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani convincingly won tonight’s California debate among Republican candidates for President of the United States, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 317 state of California debate watchers. Giuliani was picked as the winner by 30% of those in CA who watched.

Former MA Governor Mitt Romney, who was picked as the winner by 12%, and AZ Senator John McCain, who was picked as the winner by 11%, tied for 2nd place, far back from Giuliani.

All other candidates were in single digits.

Who Has The Best Plan for Iraq? McCain did much better when CA debate watchers were asked specifically about which Republican has the best plan for Iraq. 20% of CA debate watchers say McCain has the best plan for Iraq, which was only slightly behind Giuliani, who was picked by 25% as having the best Iraq plan.

Who Has The Best Solution for Immigration? Giuliani was seen as having the best solution for immigration reform by 31% of CA viewers. No one else was close.

Exactly Who in CA Watched? 51% of debate viewers were white. 28% of debate viewers were Hispanic. 15% of debate viewers were Asian. 45% of debate viewers were Republican. 30% of debate viewers were Democrats. 22% of debate viewers were Independent. 43% of debate viewers were Pro-Life. 53% of debate viewers were Pro-Choice.

Let’s look at the numbers:

Please click on graphics for a larger readable view or click here

The GOP NUTS - Who won the Debate?

Rudy - 30%

Romney - 12%

McCain - 11%

Let’s look at the Iraq question:

And the Immigration question:

Remember Flap’s Study guide on issues:

And Rudy wins on two of the top issues.

With last night’s debate, no matter how you spin it, Rudy is RIGHT on the issues and RIGHT for America.

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Rudy flop in debate? I beg to differ

I've been reading some awfully colorful language in the last couple of hours about how Rudy "lost" the debate, and think it's mostly hogwash.

Peggy Noonan thinks Giuliani did poorly on his abortion answers. Does she think that Giuliani previously had the support of a lot of Republicans for whom abortion issues are paramount? Isn't there a chance that Rudy does better winning 100% of the pro-choice vote among Republicans than making an insincere play for a 10-way split of the pro-life vote?

Ryan Sager thinks "the Giuliani campaign is in a full meltdown." I'm baffled by that evaluation.

And Jim Geraghty thinks Giuliani's answer about the difference between Sunni and Shia Muslims was "as painful as watching Joe Theismann have his leg broken by Lawrence Taylor back in the 1980s." Several other pundits also jumped on the answer.

Huh? After reading that I went back to the DVR to get the answer, which was, verbatim:

The difference is … the descendant of Muhammed. The Sunnis … the Sunnis believe that Muhammed’s … the Caliphate should be selected, and the Shiites believe that it should be by descent. And then of course there was a slaughter of Shiites in the early part of the history of Islam, and it has infected a lot of the history of Islam, which is really very unfortunate.

Isn't that answer, um, correct? Can anyone suggest a single current politician or wannabe who could've done better? In 30 seconds? Certainly not House Intelligence Committee Chairman, Democratic Representative Silvestre Reyes.

Mind you, I don't think Giuliani will get much credit for the answer because most Americans don't know enough to realize he was spot on.

In fact, that's my critique of Giuliani's performance tonight -- that he seemed to get into the thicket of wonkish facts and figures, which didn't play well in the scattered, frenetic, Hardball format of tonight's debate. (Spitballs for the genius who thought having a Carter Administration flunkie as debate moderator was a good idea.)

Tonight's format demanded Reaganesque one-liners: see how desperate McCain was to use his canned "follow Osama to the gates of hell" bon mot. I much preferred Romney's spontaneous "I wouldn’t say anything to Roman Catholic bishops. They can do whatever the heck they want."

Rather than one-liners, Giuliani offered up some Clintonesque statistics. That's not a slam -- one thing voters loved about Clinton was his incredible grasp of detail in discussing policies, whether the policies made any sense or not. But this wasn't the forum for that kind of detail.

Other opinions?

UPDATE: OK, so I'm not crazy. NRO's Byron York and the Times of London's Gerard Baker also think that Giuliani handled the Sunni-Shiite question well. York is however critical of Giuliani's abortion answers. I think there is an intellectually honest and electorally popular position there, but I agree Giuliani's got to polish his delivery on the topic.

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Giuliani Notes: Rudy 27% McCain 19% Thompson 14% Romney 8% Gingrich 8% in Latest Quinnipiac Poll

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

For a larger graphic please click here

Graphic Courtesy of Real Clear Politics

Quinnipiac National University Poll

Giuliani leads the Republican field with 27 percent, down from 40 percent, followed by 19 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain, 14 percent for former Sen. Fred Thompson and 8 percent each for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The GOP NUTS:

Rudy - 27%

McCain - 19%

Thompson - 14%

Romney - 8%

Gingrich - 8%

The Head to Head NUTS:

Rudy vs Hillary - 49% -40%

Rudy vs. Obama - 44% - 41%

Rudy vs. Al Gore - 48% - 41%

Favorability - Unfavorability NUTS:

Rudy 53% - 24%

McCain 49% - 26%

Hillary 44% - 46%

Obama 46% -18%

For Thompson, 63 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion

For Romney, 65 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion

Mayor Giuliani is clearly the FRONTRUNNER going into tonight’s Presidential debate at the Reagan Library. Although he has dropped in the polls (lead has decreased precentage-wise) with the emergence of a Fred Thompson candidacy, none of his “announced” competitors have made any gains.

If any analysis of a Thompson candidacy or supposed candidacy has been made it is that he divides or peels away soft conservative voters from the Mayor. However, Thompson is unannounced and has not undergone the intense media scrutiny of the big three. Also, he has a cancer in remission - yet an issue. So, his candidacy albeit reflected in the polls should be viewed with skepticism - as is his impact on the Mayor’s poll numbers.

So, will Rudy run the table and continue to lead the pack? Or does a Thompson candidacy express the dissatisfaction of the GOP with the current field of candidates?

The answer will come with second quarter fundraising.

In the debate tonight look for a “CAT FIGHT” between Romney and McCain as Romney attempts to climb over McCain’s back into second place.

The lesser tier of candidates like Tom Tancredo or Jim Gilmore may attempt an attack on the Mayor - so stay tuned as Flap live blogs the debate from Simi Valley.

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Giuliani Notes: Rudy 30% Thompson 14% McCain 14% Romney 11% in Latest Rasmussen GOP Poll

Cross-Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Rasmussen Reports: 2008 Republican Presidential Primary

Giuliani 30% McCain 14% Thompson 14%

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains on top in the race for the GOP nomination and now enjoys support from 30% of Likely Voters. That’s more than twice the total of any other candidate. Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and Arizona Senator John McCain are tied for second at 14%.

Thompson has been in the 12% to 14% range for each of the five surveys since his name was floated as a possible candidate.

McCain, once considered the dominant frontrunner, has struggled in recent months. His support among Likely GOP Primary voters has fallen eight percentage points since January. His numbers now are strongest among independents likely to vote in a Republican Primary. In Election 2000, McCain did best in open primaries that allowed independents to vote. Then Governor Bush did best in Primary states where only Republicans could vote.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney remains the only other candidate in double digits. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains in fifth place with 8% support.

The GOP NUTS:

Rudy - 30%

Thompson - 14%

McCain - 14%

Romney - 11%

Gingrich - 8%

Analysis:

Rudy has consolidated and maintained his lead while his main competitor, John McCain has collapsed in the polls. His other competitor, Mitt Romney has languished around 10 per cent.

So, what does this mean?

Rudy’s fundraising should be enhanced with McCain’s collapse as he looks like an inevitable GOP winner. Fred Thompson’s candidacy is a wild card but it is very late in the game, particularly for organization and fundraising.

Mitt Romney will stay in the race and hold Thompson back as the only candidate that can beat Giuliani and will divide conservative votes and campaign dollars. Will Romney withdraw?

Doubtful - although Flap will be surprised if he will ever receive more than 15% of the vote. He can always pray for a Rudy Gaffe or collapse.
With this poll, it appears that Thompson will get into the game - and why not?

Will McCain withdraw? and support Thompson?

Possible - especially if McCain’s fuindraising collapses.

But, for Thompson he will have to make up almost $40 million in fundraising that Rudy has in the bank.

The GOP debate in California should be a non-starter on Thursday with the second place candidate in the polls not having announced his candidacy.

Strange indeed……..

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