Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Monday, December 31, 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The World Does NOT Revolve Around Iowa - The Strategy Memo

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Mayor Giuliani tells Brett Bair of FOX News that his campaign is built for the long haul.
From a Giuliani campaign press release:


Rudy

TO:

TEAM RUDY

FROM:

BRENT SEABORN, STRATEGY DIRECTOR

RE:

Looking Good

DATE:

December 31, 2007

http://www.joinrudy2008.com/article/pr/1110

As voting nears in the Republican nomination process, our campaign remains convinced that our strategy we have long had in place is right - bold, innovative and designed to deal with the radically different election calendar. While many of the beltway insiders seem to remain committed to the old “Carter/Clinton” approach and have questioned the adjustments we have made to our strategic thinking based on the new calendar, we clearly have a winning plan to secure the nomination in an election cycle unlike any other. History will prove us right.

As we enter the final stages of the campaign we have seen a tightening in the national polling and the emergence of a real 5-way race for the Republican nomination. Mayor Giuliani has led virtually every national major media poll conducted in 2007. We are now at a point in the campaign where we are seeing increasing polling volatility as public attention turns to the horse races in individual states.

Important to our long term strategy, Mayor Giuliani has enjoyed a commanding lead in nearly every public poll conducted in the delegate rich states of Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey.

2007 November - December Public Polling Averages Mayor Giuliani and Closest Opponent in state polling

State

Mayor Giuliani Average

Closest Opponent Average

Florida

30%

17%

California

29%

15%

New Jersey

38%

12%

New York

40%

12%

The Primary Calendar
2008 will be unlike any recent Republican nomination process. What typically has been a primary process that stretched into March or April has been accelerated and compacted into a 33 day sprint.

Our rivals seemingly have built campaigns based on the old calendars’ strategies — a couple of very early state wins to propel them deeper in to the nomination process. To the contrary, our plan allocates time and resources to the many states which vote a bit later — on January 29 (Florida) and February 5.

For the record, only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida whereas 1,039 delegates will be picked on January 29 and February 5. Additionally, it is important to note that voting HAS ALREADY STARTED in Florida, Missouri, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey and New York - tens of thousands of people will have already cast their ballot by the time you are reading this note. And more February 5th states, including California will begin early and absentee voting soon. All of this points to the folly of over-estimating the impact of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire and the wisdom of our strategy.

Putting a high priority on spending our time and money in a proportional basis in Florida and the large delegate states voting on February 5th is clearly the right thing to do.

The Early States
The pre-February 5th states are Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida and Maine. Delegates are at stake in just five states before February 5. Wyoming will select a portion of its delegates at their caucus in January, but will not allocate all of their delegates until later in the year. Iowa, Nevada and Maine award NO delegates at this time. Florida is the big prize on January 29, with 57 winner-take-all delegates - the only winner-take-all state before February 5th.

Pre February 5th Contests

Date

State

Estimated Delegates after RNC Penalty

1/3

Iowa

0*

1/5

Wyoming

12

1/8

New Hampshire

12

1/15

Michigan

30

1/19

Nevada

0*

1/19

South Carolina

24

1/29

Florida

57

2/1

Maine

0*

Because states selecting delegates before February 5th are in violation of Republican National Committee rules, those states have been penalized half of their normal delegates; Iowa, Nevada, and Maine do not select any delegates at their caucuses, but rather at state party conventions in late spring. The states before February 5th will allocate delegates to multiple candidates under varying state election laws and state party rules. Thus, it is highly unlikely that any single candidate will win all of any one state’s delegates except Florida’s, which will be winner-take-all.

Florida accounts for more than 40% of all delegates allocated before February 5th and has almost twice as many delegates as the next largest state. It is therefore easy and correct to conclude that in a multiple candidate race, whichever candidate wins Florida, with their winner-take-all delegates, will very likely have a delegate lead going into February 5th.

February 5th
On February 5th, 982 delegates will be in play. Most importantly, a bloc of 201 winner-take-all delegates will be at stake in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware, all states in which Mayor Giuliani has double digit leads. Aside from the huge northeast delegate prize, Missouri will award 58 winner-take-all delegates, and Senator Kit Bond’s endorsement gives our organization a great statewide network there. Also on February 5th, large states such as California, Georgia and Illinois will award most of their delegates by Congressional District vote. It is for this reason that Mayor Giuliani has spent a great deal of time in each of those states and has always polled well in them.

Path to Victory
If Mayor Giuliani wins even a minority share of the 78 delegates from pre Florida states, wins Florida’s 57 delegates, wins the 201 available in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and wins only a plurality of delegates from large February 5th states like California, Georgia and Illinois, he will have a commanding lead in delegates for the nomination with more than half of the delegates selected.

State Polling and Outlooks
As noted above, polling has been and will continue to be dynamic and incredibly volatile. In Iowa for instance -just in December- we have seen polls placing the Mayor’s support from as high as 3rd to as low as 6th place. Senator McCain caucus support has ranged from a high of 20% to a low of 5%. And polling over the Christmas and New Year holidays will not be any less fickle.

In Iowa, one could anticipate that Mayor Giuliani might finish outside of the top 3. Governors Huckabee and Romney are battling it out for first, Senator Thompson is spending a lot of time in the state over the closing days of the campaign and Senator McCain received a recent boost from the endorsement of the Des Moines Register. While placement in Iowa will be a focus of the media, it should be remembered that Senator McCain came in 5th place in Iowa (behind Bauer and Keyes) before winning New Hampshire.

The most covered story out of Iowa will likely be the Democratic race, but on the Republican side, the Huckabee/Romney race will be very interesting. The Romney campaign has invested millions of dollars and assembled a massive paid staff; some now question whether Mitt Romney’s Iowa investment and organization will prevail over Mike Huckabee. While Governor Huckabee was climbing rapidly in polls before Christmas, he now seems to have plateaued. Governor Romney’s strategy has long been based on winning the first few races to build momentum. Many believe the Romney organization (and a few million more dollars of get-out-the-vote money) will pull this one out for their campaign.

New Hampshire is only a few days after Iowa and voters there are notoriously late deciders on their presidential primary vote. New Hampshire will be very much in flux after Iowa. Governor Romney was governor of neighboring Massachusetts and Senator McCain won New Hampshire in 2000. In addition to Senator McCain’s base of support, he has recently put together a series of high profile endorsements in the area to further reinvigorate his campaign. The unprecedented personal spending by Governor Romney should not be underestimated. It is apparent that he has put more than $40 million of his own money into this race.

Accurate polling in New Hampshire will be nearly impossible, with the holidays complicating it logistically and the Iowa news cycle dominating press and potentially disrupting the order of the race.

Although we should expect to see more polling from South Carolina, Michigan and the other early states, one should remember that because of the furious pace of the election calendar and the never ending news cycle, polling will be very difficult to conduct, have a very short shelf life and become even more unstable and unreliable. The polling picture will be further blurred with the range of new polling methodologies that are being tested, ranging from robotic calling to internet polling.

Thus, we should all be ready for a barrage of state and national polls in January with seemingly contradictory results — some of it good news, much of it related to early January states as bad news. We should all have confidence in the strong organizations and also in the strong bases of support in Florida and other February 5th states which will endure the ups and downs of January.

Also, by the time we get to Florida, the field of candidates and the race will look remarkably different than it does right now. Florida will be the important battleground not only for our campaign but for the race itself.

Polling in Florida has been stable all year. For most of the second half of 2007, the support for Mayor Giuliani has averaged 33 or 34%. Virtually every other candidate in the race has polled in second place to us at one point or another over the year. We have remained on top in Florida. As in all races, expect to see signs of tightening in Florida as Election Day approaches, but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race. We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win.

One should conclude, as voting nears, that our campaign is focused on the right prize - winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination. Our national campaign is the right strategy for getting it done.

Paid for by the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee, Inc.


This is an updated camapign strategy memo sent to the press and supporters as a fundraising vehicle. Flap reproduces it here in total for future analysis.

The main question is: Will 2008 be a different election year or will the history of past GOP nomination contests featuring momentum generated from Iowa and New Hampshire rule February 5th?

Whoever successfully plays the upcoming 30 day campaign wins - end of story.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The World Does NOT Revolve Around Iowa

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Closing Argument - War on Terror

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Obey the GOP 11th Commandment

Giuliani California Campaign Watch: Call Out for Telephone Volunteers in Thousand Oaks, California

Rudy Giuliani Video Watch: Rudy Reacts to Bhutto Assassination

Rudy Giuiani Watch: National Television Ad - “FREEDOM”; Update: Rudy Giuliani’s Statement on the Assassination of Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto


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Sunday, December 30, 2007

Obey the GOP 11th Commandment

Rudy Giuliani talking to reporters in Iowa, December 29, 2007

The Iowa and New Hampshire television and radio airwaves and mailboxes are full of NEGATIVE CONTRAST ads. McCain and Huckabee are calling Romney names on the campaign trail.

But, Rudy Giuliani is taking a different approach - the high road - at least for now.

While his rivals accuse one another of dishonesty and lambaste one another’s records, Rudy Giuliani is attempting to stay above the fray, saying he will not attack his fellow GOP contenders.

“I’d rather stay away from criticism of other Republicans. Our objective is to beat the Democrats and the less we criticize each other, the better position we’re gonna be in to beat the Democrats,” he said after a quick stop at an Indianola bakery. “”It seems to me we got so many issues to talk about in which we can distinguish ourselves, our different experiences, our different backgrounds, and give the voters a chance to decide.”

But, the fact is that negative campaign ads work.

In today’s polls from Iowa, Mitt Romney has eroded Mike Huckabee’s lead. And, John McCain has vaulted into the lead (of sorts -within the margin of error) in a national GOP poll. Both as a result of negative ads.

Rudy will play the UNIFIER for now and will wait for the dust to clear between the Romney-Huckabee and Romney-McCain media wars. In the meantime, Giuliani’s media people will focus group test the negative pieces to see which are the most effective to use against the apparent candidate emerging to challenge Rudy in Florida.

Flap has been saying for months that the GOP campaign will be won or lost with the Florida media war between Giuliani and one or more other candidates.

And, Rudy will go NEGATIVE in Florida - because it works.

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

Giuliani California Campaign Watch: Call Out for Telephone Volunteers in Thousand Oaks, California

Rudy Giuliani Video Watch: Rudy Reacts to Bhutto Assassination

Rudy Giuiani Watch: National Television Ad - “FREEDOM”; Update: Rudy Giuliani’s Statement on the Assassination of Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto


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Thursday, December 27, 2007

Rudy Giuiani Watch: National Television Ad - “FREEDOM”; Update: Rudy Giuliani’s Statement on the Assassination of Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benaz

Rudy Giuliani TV Ad, “Freedom”

“Islamic terrorists would make a terrible mistake if they would confuse our democracy with weakness.”

With the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Bhutto (highlighting the fact that the world is a dangerous place) , there is nothing more important than electing a President who is a tried, tested under fire and trusted LEADER.

Rudy makes his case in this ad.

The ad will begin airing nationally on FOX News and in Florida and New Hampshire on Friday.

The ad script:

MAYOR GIULIANI: “Right before September 11 and months before I had read this book about the greatest generation written by Tom Brokaw.

And the book explains how brave, and how persistent, and how courageous the people were in the generation that won the second world war.

And during the day of September 11 living through the things that I saw and observed.

Immediately, when I saw people helping each other.

I saw the picture of the firefighters putting the flag up at ground zero.

I said these are the children or grandchildren or great-grandchildren of the greatest generation.

They have the same resolve. The same understanding.

When you challenge Americans, there’s no country that stands up stronger and better than the United States of America.

When you try and take something away from us like freedom, my goodness, Americans are going to be one in resisting you.

So, the Islamic terrorists would make a terrible mistake if they confuse our democracy for weakness.

Our democracy means we disagree with each other, but when you come and try and take away from us our freedom.

When you try and come here and kill our people.

We’re one and we’re going to stand up to you and we’re going to prevail.

I’m Rudy Giuliani and I approved this message.”

**********

Update:

Mayor Rudy Giuliani released the following statement on the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto:

“The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a tragic event for Pakistan and for democracy in Pakistan. Her murderers must be brought to justice and Pakistan must continue the path back to democracy and the rule of law. Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere — whether in New York, London, Tel-Aviv or Rawalpindi — is an enemy of freedom. We must redouble our efforts to win the Terrorists’ War on Us.”

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy in Good Health and So is Campaign Strategy

Rudy Giuliani Watch: California Based

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani - McCain Ticket? Redux in New Hampshire

Politico Goes Negative on Giuliani Medical Condition

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Back on the Campaign Trail

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Burying Giuliani-Nathan Tryst Security Costs - Unlikely Says New York Times

Rudy Giuliani Watch: A Perfect 29 Inning Path to the Nomination


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Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy in Good Health and So is Campaign Strategy

Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani, left, attends a veterans roundtable with Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum Wednesday, Dec. 26, 2007, at American Legion Post 119 in Largo, Florida.

The long awaited statement on Rudy Giuliani’s health has been released:

STATEMENT FROM DR. VALENTIN FUSTER, THE MOUNT SINAI MEDICAL CENTER, MAYOR GIULIANI’S PERSONAL PHYSICIAN

“I have been Rudy Giuliani’s personal physician for more than seven years.

I was informed late Wednesday evening that Mr. Giuliani was suffering from a significant headache and fatigue. These symptoms can be described as possibly “flu-like.”

As Mr. Giuliani’s personal physician, I stayed in contact with the doctors at Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis throughout the course of the evening. Because of the significant headache, it was important to have as much information as possible and err on the side of caution.

Mr. Giuliani underwent the following tests at Barnes-Jewish Hospital: CT-MRI of the brain, ultrasound of the carotid arteries, and spinal fluid evaluation. These tests all came back normal.

Furthermore, a PSA taken within the past month was negligible or undetectable, and routine laboratory tests were normal. Upon returning to New York City, Mr. Giuliani came to me for an examination and a further test, a transesophageal echocardiogram, which was normal. I confirmed there was no change in his health status.

Mr. Giuliani was not prescribed any medication and I recommended that he lighten his schedule only for a few days.

It is my medical opinion that Rudy Giuliani is in very good health.”

Valentin Fuster, M.D., PH.D.

Professor of Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine.

Dr. Fuster serves The Mount Sinai Medical Center as Director of Mount Sinai Heart, the Zena and Michael A. Wiener Cardiovascular Institute and the Marie-Josée and Henry R. Kravis Center for Cardiovascular Health. Among the positions of distinction he holds, Dr. Fuster is former President of the American Heart Association, immediate Past President of the World Heart Federation, a member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences, and a former member of the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute Advisory Council.

**********

Ouch, Rudy had a spinal tap in St. Louis. But, his health is fine and as Flap pointed out with a headache under stress in a man Rudy’s age you will be certain that it was not a TIA. And, Flap is happy that it was not.

Now, onto Rudy’s big state, Florida plus Super Tuesday strategy.

Facing criticism for pursuing a strategy that essentially bypasses the early primary states in favor of Florida and later states, Rudy Giuliani said Wednesday that he trusts that the Sunshine State will “make it’s own statement”–one he is gambling will be for him.

“I think the people of Florida will make their own decision on who they think will be the best Republican candidate…our states don’t always vote the same,” he said in response to a question about whether he can survive likely losses in the first five primary and caucus states. “I can’t think of a person whose one a contested nomination that’s won every primary. We’ve always had somebody wins one, somebody wins another, then you have a contest. So by the time we get to Florida on January 29, it’s going to be early enough for Florida to make its own statement, and make a very strong decision that will have an impact going forward.”

Click on the photo to hear Giuliani discuss why he thinks Floridians will make up their own mind as to their choice for President.

Republican presidential hopeful and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani attends a veterans roundtable Wednesday, Dec. 26, 2007, at American Legion Post 119 in Largo, Florida.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: California Based

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani - McCain Ticket? Redux in New Hampshire

Politico Goes Negative on Giuliani Medical Condition

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Back on the Campaign Trail

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Burying Giuliani-Nathan Tryst Security Costs - Unlikely Says New York Times

Rudy Giuliani Watch: A Perfect 29 Inning Path to the Nomination


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Saturday, December 22, 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: A Perfect 29 Inning Path to the Nomination

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Rudy Giuliani leaves Barnes-Jewish Hospital Thursday, Dec. 20, 2007, in St. Louis. The Republican presidential hopeful, who spent the night in the St. Louis hospital with flu-like symptoms, left with a clean bill of health according to his campaign.

Time Magazine screams: Is Giuliani Facing Free Fall?

The answer is no.

But is there evidence to support this opinion? Flap found two excellent pieces today that not only accurately describe the Giuliani campaign’s strategy but also outline scenarios for Rudy’s nomination.

Assessing Giuliani’s Strategy

The most important insight, I think, still holds: delegates matter. And Giuliani is in a position to exit February 5 with the most delegates. For now. His biggest threat remains a Mitt Romney, having won Iowa and New Hampshire and opened his checkbook… which is why, despite the downside risk, the Giuliani campaign is comfortable with Mike Huckabee’s rise.

  • Are Mike Huckabee and now John McCain “perfect” foils for Rudy in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina?
  • Are Huck and Mac the Romney stoppers and the absorbers of costly financed negative attacks by Mitt?
  • Will these negative media attacks drive them all into unfavorable opinion territory by the middle of January?

Jim Geraghty over at National Review: Giuliani’s Nomination Path - Tougher, But Not Blocked

Under that scenario, nobody’s the frontrunner by the time they get to Florida, which Rudy is still leading right now. Everybody could (and arguably should) have a win under their belts. In addition to each one of his rivals controling a faction of the pie, they’ll probably have higher disapproval numbers, as they will have been the target of attacks for several weeks as Giuliani faded into the background.

Since he surged, Huckabee has been getting much tougher coverage, as any reader of this blog has seen. Romney’s still getting hit from a lot of different directions - his dad and Martin Luther King, his immigration positions, the usual flip-flop charges, etc. If McCain wins New Hampshire, you’ll see him get coverage that’s much tougher. His foes will start reciting immigrationdeal-campaignfinancereform-gangof14-votedagainstBushtaxcuts over and over again. You’ll see every picture he’s ever taken with Ted Kennedy dominating the airwaves. If Fred Thompson surges, he’ll get knocked around, too. And there’s still some possibility of the murder-suicide effect; if any candidate goes too negative on another, the mud splashes on both of them.

So it’s possible that by the time we get to Florida, most of the other Big Five have won only one or two states and has higher negatives from several tough primary battles. Rudy can swoop in, win delegate-rich Florida, and then try to execute his big state Super Duper Tuesday strategy, and pound home, electability, electability, electability…

It’s not a perfect path to the nomination, but right now, no one has one…

And, let’s look at the numbers, particularly the GOP delegates Giuliani would pick up on Super Duper Tuesday and Florida.

Finance co-chairs Roy Bailey and Jim Lee noted in an e-mail to supporters that in the 25 states where polls have been conducted and are scheduled to vote before Feb. 5, Giuliani leads in 13 - far more than any other candidate.
The numbers are important, because with each state victory comes a share of the 1,191 delegate votes a GOP hopeful will need to capture his party’s nomination.

If Giuliani wins all 13 of the primary states where he now leads in the polls and that vote by Feb. 5, he’ll collect 758 delegates, a Daily News analysis found.

That’s roughly two-thirds of the delegates needed to win the nomination, and more than four times the 170 delegates that Giuliani’s closest rival, Huckabee, would amass by Feb. 5 if he wins everywhere he is leading now.

Is the Giuliani strategy one of patience and attrition? You bet.

It may not be a perfect path to the nomination and Rudy will undoubtedly take some hits over the next few days in the polls. But, somehow, Flap thinks that after Christmas this race will start a whole new inning for the Giuliani campaign in their 29 inning game - watch them score.

Stay tuned…..


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Monday, December 10, 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: San Francisco Today and Los Angeles Tomorrow

Republican presidential hopeful former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, top left, reads questions off a ‘How Did We Do?’ dining survey while visiting a Mel’s Drive-In restaurant in San Francisco, Monday, Dec. 10, 2007. Giuliani was gladhanding his way through Mel’s Drive-in when restaurant manager Armando Ruiz had pressed a ‘How Did We Do?’ survey it into Giuliani’s hand for an autograph. Realizing what he had, Giuliani invited himself to sit down with a group of diners. Slipping into their booth, he recited several questions.

Rudy is in California today and tomorrow prior to the Des Moines Iowa GOP debate on Wednesday. Rudy will have a couple of public events while fundraising his heart out to fund the upcoming media battle in Florida and February 5 Super Duper Tuesday states.

Fox News video of Rudy in San Francisco this afternoon is here.

Tomorrow’s public event will be in Santa Monica:

Meet and Greet with
Mayor Rudy Giuliani

Google MapWhere
The Counter
2901 Ocean Park Boulevard
Santa Monica, CA 90405

When
Tuesday, December 11th
2:00 PM PT

Bring your camera and a friend to meet Mayor Rudy Giuliani!

For more information, please contact Krista Powers at (818) 237-0878 or kristapowers@joinrudy2008.com

Flap will be there. Look for the dentist with the video camera.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Meet the Press

Rudy Giuliani Nevada Poll Watch: Rudy Leads Romney by 5 Points in Latest Mason-Dixon Poll

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Huckaboom Vs Mitt Plays into Giuliani Strategy

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy 26% Huckabee 18% McCain 13% Romney 12% Thompson 11% Paul 3% in Latest National GOP Poll

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Status of the Campaign PM Edition


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Friday, December 07, 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Huckaboom Vs Mitt Plays into Giuliani Strategy

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Republican Presidential hopeful, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani address the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association annual meeting in Chicago, Friday, Dec. 7, 2007.

Patrick Ruffini has the RIGHT analysis.

Unless Rudy melts down, the race could EVEN evolve into a “BROKERED” GOP CONVENTION” in September 2008.

Stay tuned……

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy 26% Huckabee 18% McCain 13% Romney 12% Thompson 11% Paul 3% in Latest National GOP Poll

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Status of the Campaign PM Edition


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