Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Charlie Cook Hearts Democrats and John McCain

Normally I wouldn't call attention to this, but it is somewhat humorous and does make an interesting point about who exactly is driving this John McCain hoopla.

Two predictions from Charlie Cook. The first on GOP losses in the House:

Please tell us, Seer of Future Congresses, how many seats the Democrats will pick up in the House on Election Day.

"Twenty to 35," Cook answers.
The second on '08:
Cook gave the same speech about Frankenstein and hurricanes, then offered some presidential prognostication for dessert. "I would give McCain a 60, 65 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination," he disclosed. By contrast, he added, "I'll win the Tour de France before Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination."
Only the most wild-eyed pro-Democratic analyst could believe A) that Democrats have a serious chance of gaining 35 seats in the House, and B) that John McCain has more than 30 percent shot at winning the Republican nomination. The House prediction betrays his true leanings. The '08 prediction shows how he uses those leanings. He obviously understands nothing about how conservative GOP primary voters are sizing up the race.

Frankly, I'd put more credence in the 35-seat prediction since he at least gets to factor in the 50 percent of the electorate he's most familiar with. But to claim that the GOP will veto Rudy Giuliani for John McCain flies in the face of every piece of empirical data (including Cook's own survey). It's like a GOP analyst predicting that the Dems will veto Hillary because of the war, and there are some on our side who go that far.

The bottom line is that people in one party shouldn't be making predictions about the outcome of the other party's nomination battle, because they're most often wrong. And the Democrat analysts are the ones most confident of McCain's chances. What does that tell you?

For true expert, non-pollyannish analysis of '06 and '08, turn to Michael Barone and our very own DaveG, both of whom predict a Democratic House and have been pretty favorable to Rudy's chances in '08.

Fit Charlie for that extra-large yellow jersey, because this thing is happening.

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