Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Drive to Five Rudy Giuliani Fundraising

Republican presidential candidate, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, right, shakes hands with Florida Governor Charlie Crist during a campaign stop, Thursday, Jan. 17, 2008, in Tallahassee, Fla.

From Flap’s e-mail box, an independent fundraising effort to support America’s Mayor:

DRIVE2FIVE Rudy Fundraiser

Help give Rudy the resources he needs to be victorious on February 5th and win the Republican nomination! Click on the buttons below to make your contribution or join Team Rudy. Encourage your friends to participate too. The more people who sign up to help the more speed Rudy can build up to cross the finish line.

Go here and help Rudy.



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New Rudy Giuliani Television Ad Quotes Mitt Romney

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Rudy Giuliani Television Ad, “Quotes”

The Script for “Quotes:”

Chyron: “Rudy Giuliani is ‘the most successful tax cutter in the Republican field today’”

Chryon: “Grover Norquist, America’s Leading Tax Fighter”

Chyron: “Rudy Giuliani’s record is ‘the most successful episode of conservative governance in the past 50 years.’”

Chyron: “George Will, Conservative Columnist”

Chyron: “‘It’s time for the rest of the country to benefit from a true fiscal conservative who gets results like Giuliani.’”

Chyron: “Steve Forbes, American Tax Fighter”

Chyron: “Rudy Giuliani is more accomplished at cutting taxes than anyone else.”

Chryon: “Pat Toomey – Fox News 10/17/07 Club for Growth”

Chyron: “Giuliani tax cut plan … the biggest in history.”

Chryon: “Americans for Tax Reform.”

Chyron: “Mayor Giuliani has a great record of cutting taxes”

Chyron: “Mitt Romney”

Mayor Giuliani: “I’m Rudy Giuliani and I approved this message.”

**********

So, is Mitt Romney now supporting the Mayor?

A great ad and an opening salvo against Romney.

**********

By the way, Giuliani supporters go here and send Rudy a few bucks for airing this ad in Super Tuesday states, like California where the media is expensive.

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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Rudy Giuliani - Campaign is a Test of Faith

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

giulianijanuary132007aweb

U.S. Republican presidential candidate and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (C) waves to supporters during a campaign rally at the Three Kings Day Parade in Miami’s Little Havana, January 13, 2008.

Rudy Giuliani is in South Florida today and spoke this morning in front of a Hispanic Evangelical Mega-Church, God at El Rey Jesus, where former Florida (remember the CHADS) Secretary of State, US Representative Katharine Harris attended.

Harris was not the best United States Senate candidate in 2006 (in fact, her campaign was a disaster) but she continues a high GOP profile in Florida.

Key Quotes from the Mayor:

  • “I have deep respect for the power of faith,’’ Mr. Giuliani said at the church. “I received a religious education for most of my life, until the time I attended law school. And as you realize, law school is not a religious education.’’
  • “But up until then I started every day of class making the sign of the cross, praying to Jesus, praying to Mary and asking for help, asking for assistance, and it built into my very being an understanding that we have to pray for help, that we have to pray for guidance, we have to pray to seek God’s will, and we have to pray to make us better people, to live the life that God wants for us,’’ he said.
  • ….“how faith can transform lives, making families stronger, making communities better, giving people of despair, hope, and giving people a much better understanding of what life is really all about: service to God, and service to others.’’
  • “I’m running for president of the United States,’’ he said. “It is marathon, not a sprint. And in many ways it’s a test of strength, and it’s a test of faith. The Bible reminds us, Joshua 10:25, fear not, be strong and of good courage. That’s the way to face the future. Whatever is ahead, we don’t know. Anything can be challenging us. Good, bad, difficult. But if we believe in God, fear not, be strong, and of good courage, that is the way to provide real leadership.”
  • “That’s what I’ve strived to do all of my life,’’ he said. “I’ve faced odds that were at times seemingly impossible. Situations where people had given up hope. But we didn’t listen to the doubters. We didn’t listen to the naysayers. You know how many of them there are: it can’t be done, it hasn’t been done before, we can’t handle this, we can’t accomplish this, no one’s ever done it before. Oh, there are so many that are naysayers. But don’t listen to them. Don’t pay attention to them. Fear not, be strong, and of good courage.’’

It is an understatement that Rudy’s uncoventional campaign is a test of faith - particularly for the Washington DC and New York pundits who have been writing his obituary for weeks. For many of them it is wishful thinking since many have whored themselves out by shilling for other candidates and those candidates are now in a make or break primary elections before Florida.

Giuliani is an Italian Catholic and I have wondered when he was going to play the Catholic Faith card. Certainly, it was not going to be in Protestant Evangelical land of Iowa or South Carolina and definitley not New Hampshire. But, his comments above reflect his Catholic heritage and education.

Catholic voters WILL be reminded he is one of them - especially in states where there are more Catholic voters.

Florida is one of them.

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Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Rudy Giuliani Unveils His Tax Plan

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Mayor Rudy Giuliani sat down with the Fox Business Network’s Neil Cavuto and talked about his plan for the biggest tax cut in American history. In addition to cutting the capital gains from 15% to 10% and slashing the corporate tax from 35% to 25%, Rudy said that his plan would provide much needed tax relief for individuals across all income levels.

Again, some of the specifics:

  • Make permanent the bush tax cuts NOW…not in 2010
  • Permanently index the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and then eliminate it when practical (no timetable)
  • Get rid of the Death Tax
  • Lower the capitol gains and dividend rate to 10% and index to inflation. (Here is where he could go further and actually eliminate the capitol gains tax)
  • Lower corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%
  • Trio of tax free savings accounts – Roth style – available to ALL income classes
  • Tax simplication strategy – one page tax return
  • Three rates – 10% (40k), 15% (150k), and 30% (150k )

The interactive FAST (Fair and Simple Tax) Form that Flap promised is here. Go check it out……

Even more details of the Plan are here.

Pat Toomey of the Club for Growth has praised the plan:

“Giuliani’s tax cut plan will encourage capital formation, and capital is the key driver of productivity, higher wages, and a better standard of living for all Americans,” Mr. Toomey continued. “He does that by not only lowering the capital gains and dividends rates, but also by indexing capital gains to inflation. Also, the Mayor’s plan dramatically lowers marginal tax rates at the personal and corporate level, which will encourage a significant burst of economic activity and growth.”

“The current U.S. tax code is a monstrosity of inefficiency and deterrence, with some of the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world and a tax code that totals more than 66,000 pages. Mayor Giuliani’s tax cut proposal today would dramatically move the American tax code and economy in the right direction. This is exactly the kind of plan economic conservatives should embrace.”

And, what Flap likes are the lowering of the marginal rates and the optional filing of the FAST (Fair and Simple Tax) form. If your taxes are lower using the conventional 1040 then you have the option every year to choose the method of filing that is the best and lowest for you.

Steve Forbes comments on the tax plan in the following video:


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Rudy Giuliani Watch: On To Florida

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Rudy Giuliani addressing Team Giuliani after the New Hampshire Primary

Rudy Giuliani is on to Florida in his big states strategy.

The latest Florida poll has Rudy leading both Mike Huckabee and John McCain by 5 Points.

The Mayor will be making a major speech on taxes and financial policy tomorrow afternoon in Melbourne, Florida.

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Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Rudy Giuliani California Watch: California Shout Out for Volunteers


It is 34 days before the California primary election on February 5th and 6 days before Californians start to early and absentee vote.

Team Rudy Giuliani California wants your help.

From the press release:

Supporters like you, from all across the state, are helping spread the word about Rudy’s proven leadership and optimistic vision for America. We have phone banks operating throughout California on a daily basis and need your help reminding our supporters to return their absentee ballots or vote at the polls on February 5th. Even just an hour of your time between now and February 5th can make a world of difference in an election like this.

Below is a list of our field representatives and the areas they cover. We strongly encourage you to get in touch with the field representative responsible for your county and sign up for a Get-Out-The-Vote shift. Come be a part of history and help Rudy in the most direct and effective way possible: turning his supporters out to vote.

California Field Staff

Matt Seney
Mseney@JoinRudy2008.com
Counties:

Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, Siskiyou, Trinity, Tehama, Glenn, Butte, Colusa, Sutter, Shasta, Yuba, Yolo, San Joaquin, and part of Sonoma

Cathy Hayes
CatherineHayes@JoinRudy2008.com
Counties:

Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado, Amador, Calaveras, Alpine, Tuolumne, Madera, Merced, Mariposa, Tulare, Fresno, Kings, Stanislaus, Nevada, Sierra, Plumas, Lassen and Modoc

Elena Taube
Elenataube@JoinRudy2008.com
Counties:

Alameda, Contra Costa, and Solano

Kristen Vieira
KristenVieira@JoinRudy2008.com
Counties:

Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito and part of Sonoma

Krista Powers
KristaPowers@JoinRudy2008.com
Counties:

San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Kern, and Westside and East Los Angeles County

Sam Gordon
SamGordon@JoinRudy2008.com
Counties:

Riverside, San Bernardino and part of the San Gabriel Valley in Los Angeles County

Ashley Ingram
AshleyIngram@JoinRudy2008.com
Counties:

Inyo, Mono, and San Gabriel Valley, Santa Clarita Valley, Antelope Valley and San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles County

Jeff Harvey
JeffHarvey@JoinRudy2008.com
Counties:

Orange County, part of San Bernardino County, and South Bay and Downtown in Los Angeles County

Bryan Watkins
BryanWatkins@JoinRudy2008.com
Counties:

South Riverside, San Diego and Imperial

Flap says spend a few hours volunteering for the Mayor - you will be glad you did.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Video Watch: 2007 Year in Review

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Iowa GOTV Flap?

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The World Does NOT Revolve Around Iowa - The Strategy Memo

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The World Does NOT Revolve Around Iowa

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Closing Argument - War on Terror

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Obey the GOP 11th Commandment

Giuliani California Campaign Watch: Call Out for Telephone Volunteers in Thousand Oaks, California

Rudy Giuliani Video Watch: Rudy Reacts to Bhutto Assassination

Rudy Giuiani Watch: National Television Ad - “FREEDOM”; Update: Rudy Giuliani’s Statement on the Assassination of Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto


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The Year in Review

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Rudy Giuliani highlights from the 2007 campaign.

Flap’s favorite: Yogi Berra


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Monday, December 31, 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The World Does NOT Revolve Around Iowa - The Strategy Memo

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Mayor Giuliani tells Brett Bair of FOX News that his campaign is built for the long haul.
From a Giuliani campaign press release:


Rudy

TO:

TEAM RUDY

FROM:

BRENT SEABORN, STRATEGY DIRECTOR

RE:

Looking Good

DATE:

December 31, 2007

http://www.joinrudy2008.com/article/pr/1110

As voting nears in the Republican nomination process, our campaign remains convinced that our strategy we have long had in place is right - bold, innovative and designed to deal with the radically different election calendar. While many of the beltway insiders seem to remain committed to the old “Carter/Clinton” approach and have questioned the adjustments we have made to our strategic thinking based on the new calendar, we clearly have a winning plan to secure the nomination in an election cycle unlike any other. History will prove us right.

As we enter the final stages of the campaign we have seen a tightening in the national polling and the emergence of a real 5-way race for the Republican nomination. Mayor Giuliani has led virtually every national major media poll conducted in 2007. We are now at a point in the campaign where we are seeing increasing polling volatility as public attention turns to the horse races in individual states.

Important to our long term strategy, Mayor Giuliani has enjoyed a commanding lead in nearly every public poll conducted in the delegate rich states of Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey.

2007 November - December Public Polling Averages Mayor Giuliani and Closest Opponent in state polling

State

Mayor Giuliani Average

Closest Opponent Average

Florida

30%

17%

California

29%

15%

New Jersey

38%

12%

New York

40%

12%

The Primary Calendar
2008 will be unlike any recent Republican nomination process. What typically has been a primary process that stretched into March or April has been accelerated and compacted into a 33 day sprint.

Our rivals seemingly have built campaigns based on the old calendars’ strategies — a couple of very early state wins to propel them deeper in to the nomination process. To the contrary, our plan allocates time and resources to the many states which vote a bit later — on January 29 (Florida) and February 5.

For the record, only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida whereas 1,039 delegates will be picked on January 29 and February 5. Additionally, it is important to note that voting HAS ALREADY STARTED in Florida, Missouri, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey and New York - tens of thousands of people will have already cast their ballot by the time you are reading this note. And more February 5th states, including California will begin early and absentee voting soon. All of this points to the folly of over-estimating the impact of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire and the wisdom of our strategy.

Putting a high priority on spending our time and money in a proportional basis in Florida and the large delegate states voting on February 5th is clearly the right thing to do.

The Early States
The pre-February 5th states are Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida and Maine. Delegates are at stake in just five states before February 5. Wyoming will select a portion of its delegates at their caucus in January, but will not allocate all of their delegates until later in the year. Iowa, Nevada and Maine award NO delegates at this time. Florida is the big prize on January 29, with 57 winner-take-all delegates - the only winner-take-all state before February 5th.

Pre February 5th Contests

Date

State

Estimated Delegates after RNC Penalty

1/3

Iowa

0*

1/5

Wyoming

12

1/8

New Hampshire

12

1/15

Michigan

30

1/19

Nevada

0*

1/19

South Carolina

24

1/29

Florida

57

2/1

Maine

0*

Because states selecting delegates before February 5th are in violation of Republican National Committee rules, those states have been penalized half of their normal delegates; Iowa, Nevada, and Maine do not select any delegates at their caucuses, but rather at state party conventions in late spring. The states before February 5th will allocate delegates to multiple candidates under varying state election laws and state party rules. Thus, it is highly unlikely that any single candidate will win all of any one state’s delegates except Florida’s, which will be winner-take-all.

Florida accounts for more than 40% of all delegates allocated before February 5th and has almost twice as many delegates as the next largest state. It is therefore easy and correct to conclude that in a multiple candidate race, whichever candidate wins Florida, with their winner-take-all delegates, will very likely have a delegate lead going into February 5th.

February 5th
On February 5th, 982 delegates will be in play. Most importantly, a bloc of 201 winner-take-all delegates will be at stake in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware, all states in which Mayor Giuliani has double digit leads. Aside from the huge northeast delegate prize, Missouri will award 58 winner-take-all delegates, and Senator Kit Bond’s endorsement gives our organization a great statewide network there. Also on February 5th, large states such as California, Georgia and Illinois will award most of their delegates by Congressional District vote. It is for this reason that Mayor Giuliani has spent a great deal of time in each of those states and has always polled well in them.

Path to Victory
If Mayor Giuliani wins even a minority share of the 78 delegates from pre Florida states, wins Florida’s 57 delegates, wins the 201 available in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and wins only a plurality of delegates from large February 5th states like California, Georgia and Illinois, he will have a commanding lead in delegates for the nomination with more than half of the delegates selected.

State Polling and Outlooks
As noted above, polling has been and will continue to be dynamic and incredibly volatile. In Iowa for instance -just in December- we have seen polls placing the Mayor’s support from as high as 3rd to as low as 6th place. Senator McCain caucus support has ranged from a high of 20% to a low of 5%. And polling over the Christmas and New Year holidays will not be any less fickle.

In Iowa, one could anticipate that Mayor Giuliani might finish outside of the top 3. Governors Huckabee and Romney are battling it out for first, Senator Thompson is spending a lot of time in the state over the closing days of the campaign and Senator McCain received a recent boost from the endorsement of the Des Moines Register. While placement in Iowa will be a focus of the media, it should be remembered that Senator McCain came in 5th place in Iowa (behind Bauer and Keyes) before winning New Hampshire.

The most covered story out of Iowa will likely be the Democratic race, but on the Republican side, the Huckabee/Romney race will be very interesting. The Romney campaign has invested millions of dollars and assembled a massive paid staff; some now question whether Mitt Romney’s Iowa investment and organization will prevail over Mike Huckabee. While Governor Huckabee was climbing rapidly in polls before Christmas, he now seems to have plateaued. Governor Romney’s strategy has long been based on winning the first few races to build momentum. Many believe the Romney organization (and a few million more dollars of get-out-the-vote money) will pull this one out for their campaign.

New Hampshire is only a few days after Iowa and voters there are notoriously late deciders on their presidential primary vote. New Hampshire will be very much in flux after Iowa. Governor Romney was governor of neighboring Massachusetts and Senator McCain won New Hampshire in 2000. In addition to Senator McCain’s base of support, he has recently put together a series of high profile endorsements in the area to further reinvigorate his campaign. The unprecedented personal spending by Governor Romney should not be underestimated. It is apparent that he has put more than $40 million of his own money into this race.

Accurate polling in New Hampshire will be nearly impossible, with the holidays complicating it logistically and the Iowa news cycle dominating press and potentially disrupting the order of the race.

Although we should expect to see more polling from South Carolina, Michigan and the other early states, one should remember that because of the furious pace of the election calendar and the never ending news cycle, polling will be very difficult to conduct, have a very short shelf life and become even more unstable and unreliable. The polling picture will be further blurred with the range of new polling methodologies that are being tested, ranging from robotic calling to internet polling.

Thus, we should all be ready for a barrage of state and national polls in January with seemingly contradictory results — some of it good news, much of it related to early January states as bad news. We should all have confidence in the strong organizations and also in the strong bases of support in Florida and other February 5th states which will endure the ups and downs of January.

Also, by the time we get to Florida, the field of candidates and the race will look remarkably different than it does right now. Florida will be the important battleground not only for our campaign but for the race itself.

Polling in Florida has been stable all year. For most of the second half of 2007, the support for Mayor Giuliani has averaged 33 or 34%. Virtually every other candidate in the race has polled in second place to us at one point or another over the year. We have remained on top in Florida. As in all races, expect to see signs of tightening in Florida as Election Day approaches, but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race. We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win.

One should conclude, as voting nears, that our campaign is focused on the right prize - winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination. Our national campaign is the right strategy for getting it done.

Paid for by the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee, Inc.


This is an updated camapign strategy memo sent to the press and supporters as a fundraising vehicle. Flap reproduces it here in total for future analysis.

The main question is: Will 2008 be a different election year or will the history of past GOP nomination contests featuring momentum generated from Iowa and New Hampshire rule February 5th?

Whoever successfully plays the upcoming 30 day campaign wins - end of story.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The World Does NOT Revolve Around Iowa

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Closing Argument - War on Terror

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Obey the GOP 11th Commandment

Giuliani California Campaign Watch: Call Out for Telephone Volunteers in Thousand Oaks, California

Rudy Giuliani Video Watch: Rudy Reacts to Bhutto Assassination

Rudy Giuiani Watch: National Television Ad - “FREEDOM”; Update: Rudy Giuliani’s Statement on the Assassination of Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto


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Sunday, December 30, 2007

Obey the GOP 11th Commandment

Rudy Giuliani talking to reporters in Iowa, December 29, 2007

The Iowa and New Hampshire television and radio airwaves and mailboxes are full of NEGATIVE CONTRAST ads. McCain and Huckabee are calling Romney names on the campaign trail.

But, Rudy Giuliani is taking a different approach - the high road - at least for now.

While his rivals accuse one another of dishonesty and lambaste one another’s records, Rudy Giuliani is attempting to stay above the fray, saying he will not attack his fellow GOP contenders.

“I’d rather stay away from criticism of other Republicans. Our objective is to beat the Democrats and the less we criticize each other, the better position we’re gonna be in to beat the Democrats,” he said after a quick stop at an Indianola bakery. “”It seems to me we got so many issues to talk about in which we can distinguish ourselves, our different experiences, our different backgrounds, and give the voters a chance to decide.”

But, the fact is that negative campaign ads work.

In today’s polls from Iowa, Mitt Romney has eroded Mike Huckabee’s lead. And, John McCain has vaulted into the lead (of sorts -within the margin of error) in a national GOP poll. Both as a result of negative ads.

Rudy will play the UNIFIER for now and will wait for the dust to clear between the Romney-Huckabee and Romney-McCain media wars. In the meantime, Giuliani’s media people will focus group test the negative pieces to see which are the most effective to use against the apparent candidate emerging to challenge Rudy in Florida.

Flap has been saying for months that the GOP campaign will be won or lost with the Florida media war between Giuliani and one or more other candidates.

And, Rudy will go NEGATIVE in Florida - because it works.

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

Giuliani California Campaign Watch: Call Out for Telephone Volunteers in Thousand Oaks, California

Rudy Giuliani Video Watch: Rudy Reacts to Bhutto Assassination

Rudy Giuiani Watch: National Television Ad - “FREEDOM”; Update: Rudy Giuliani’s Statement on the Assassination of Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto


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