Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Friday, June 30, 2006

ARG Update: Ryan Sager Smokes 'Em Out

A little while back, I noticed that the American Research Group was engaged in some hackery in their '08 primary polls, relegating Rudy to a secondary ballot test. I showed how this would have the effect of reducing Rudy's support by 60% while conspicuously inflating McCain's numbers.

Ryan Sager had much the same question and he asked ARG poll-meister Dick Bennett about it. Here's the response he got back:

We added Giuliani after the first ballot and did not randomize the order of the questions.

While he has been more active lately, there are still no signs on the ground that he will run. I continue to hear from activists that Giuliani will only get in the race if McCain does not.

Hope this is helpful.

Which "activists" (Mike*cough*Dennehy) has Bennett been talking to and what information do they have that national political reporters don't? Because this is the first I've heard of this Rudy won't run if McCain does business. I haven't seen this specific bit of gossip reported anywhere in the Rudy-skeptical MSM.

Bennett's methods are so obviously flawed it's hard to know where to begin. Even if Bennett is just covering his bases, he's doing it in such a way that makes it appear that it won't matter even if Rudy does run, skewing the results to McCain. And he's letting his polls be influenced by bought-and-paid for "activists."

It's hard to find a poll less reputable than Zogby's crap Internet poll, but ARG is in that spot right now, at least with respect to their GOP primary polling.

info@americanresearchgroup.com -- and please be polite.

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