Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Poll Watch - Strategic Vision Florida & Washington

As usual, Rudy dominates the field:

Strategic Vision Florida, July 21-23, 2006

Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)

Rudy Giuliani 40%
John McCain 30%
George Allen 7%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 9%

If Condoleeza Rice were to run for President in 2008, whom would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)

Rudy Giuliani 35%
John McCain 20%
Condoleeza Rice 16%
George Allen 5%
Mitt Romney 4%
Newt Gingrich 3%
Bill Frist 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 12%

Strategic Vision Washington, July 21-23, 2006

For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)

Rudy Giuliani 38%
John McCain 26%
Mitt Romney 9%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Bill Frist 4%
George Allen 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 13%

If Condoleeza Rice were to run for President in 2008, whom would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)

Rudy Giuliani 34%
John McCain 21%
Condoleeza Rice 16%
Mitt Romney 7%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Bill Frist 2%
George Allen 2%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 10%

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At 12:10 PM, Blogger LUTHER HARDY said...

I hope everyone watched "Hardball" on Wednesday, 12 July 2006, because if you did, you heard Chris Matthews predict that Rudy Giuliani will win the Presidency in 2008! Not just that he will run, mind you, but that he will run and actually win!

Moreover, this was not just something Matthews more-or-less "threw out there", rather it was a considered and firm prediction! He actually said he was "putting himself on the line". Now, while most of me is gratified by this prediction, a small part of my mind is conflicted because I was just about to write-off Matthews completely as little more that a closet-Left wing, anti-Bush Jerk -- with a Capital "J"! Nevertheless, I suppose no one would dispute that he qualifies as one of the top political commentators and prognosticators in the country today.

He made this prediction while talking to two guests, both of whom were identified as "political strategists" -- one Republican and one Democrat -- and both of whom were loudly trumpeting the "conventional wisdom" about Rudy, i.e., that he can't be nominated by the Republican Party because the "Religious Right", particularly in the South, will never vote for him in any primary because of his stands on abortion, gay rights, and gun control, as well as his own two divorces, etc., etc. To this Matthews responded essentially that he is tired of hearing this "conventional wisdom" because, quite simply, it is at variance with the "facts-on-the-ground" (I paraphrase), as he finds them to be. Matthews went on to base his own prediction on his own instinct drawn from the following facts:

1. Despite the "conventional wisdom", every poll he sees of potential Republican voters actually shows Rudy winning over John McCain and any other currently potential Republican nominee.

2. People running for office in the South this year absolutely fall-all-over-themselves to have Rudy come and campaign for them. Here, Matthews made much of Rudy's recent campaign swing through Georgia on behalf of Ralph Reed -- the same campaign swing that Frank Rich of The New York Times saw as somehow an attempt to bamboozle the Religious Right voters in Georgia. In fact, the whole exchange was prompted by the news that just that very day Rudy was in Arkansas to campaign for Asa Hutchinson to succeed Mike Huckabee as Governor.

3. Matthews believes that in 2008, National Security (or Homeland Security) will once again be the overriding issue in the campaign, and no one -- not even John McCain -- has more credibility on this issue than Rudy. When asked to name someone who matched Rudy's credibility on this issue (broadly defined), the Democrat strategist, a fresh-faced young woman, said she thought that John Kerry was "very strong" on National Security (I do no paraphrase). This prompted a truly spontaneous guffaw from Matthews, the Republican strategist, et moi! I mention it here only to demonstrate yet again how the leadership pf the Democrat party remains so completely out of touch with reality.

Of course, as you all have no doubt gathered, at least on this prediction, Matthews and I are completely in sync. Even I, however, have been sufficiently cowed by the conventional wisdom that I have heretofore said only that Rudy "has a chance". And, because of the vagaries of Presidential politics, I am still unwilling to issue as flat a prediction as did Matthews. I will say, however, that I find the conventional wisdom, particularly as enunciated by people of the ilk of Frank Rich, to be more than a little insulting.

In this regard, the conventional wisdom assumes that Southern Conservative, Religious, and God-Fearing voters, are so insular and consumed within themselves, that they are incapable of (1) making common cause with people like Rudy on such issues as Aids-in-Africa and the Environment, and/or (2) striking an absolutely clear-eyed bargain with Rudy because they don't want to see the White House fall into the hands of any Democrat -- Hillary or anyone else. In the view of Rich and his Fellow Travelers, Southern Conservative voters will not vote for Rudy unless they are somehow "duped".

Finally, and in light of the potential "bargain" that I (and Ralph Reed and Asa Hutchinson, et al., et al.) see a-borning between Rudy and Southern voters, I take note that the Matthews prediction was made with no mention of what I see as Rudy's ultimate trump card against all other potential Republican nominees: Rudy is the only one among them who can put New York "in play" if Hillary is the Democratic nominee, and who will win New York against any other opponent. Indeed, it is beyond "conventional wisdom"; it is virtually a demographic certainty that the Democratic Party simply cannot win the White House unless they carry New York!

Luther Hardy

At 12:19 PM, Blogger LUTHER HARDY said...

I agree wholeheartedly with the Blogger's take on the Kate O'Bierne piece in the latest issue of National Review! There is nothing new. The analysys -- such as it is -- is nothing more than pre-digested pablum from the MSM and the "conventional wisdom". It is implicitly concescending both to Southerners and values voters. These people, among whom I count myself, are eminently capable of deciding for themselves that Rudy's leadership qualities and the importance of the "security issue" will lead them to make a clear-eyed compromise with Rudy's "social" positions that they might not like. Isn't "compromise" what "politics" is supposed to be all about?

Moreover, Rudy's "social" positions have been loudly "put out there" for all to see, hear, and know -- most recently by Jerry Falwell. When commenting on his invitation to John McCain to deliver the Commencement Address at Liberty University last May, the Rev. Mr. Falwell was careful to point out, in an Op-Ed piece in The New York Times, that while he could support McCain for President, he could not support Rudy because of Rudy's positions on certain "social issues", which he explicitly enumerated.

In short, the "facts-on-the-ground" simply do not support Ms. O'Bierne's analysis.
That, together with her disgraceful intellectual "slight-of-hand" about Rudy's "acceptance" polling numbers pushes the overall assessment of the piece into the category of "hatchet job" -- not something one has come to expect from the National Review! The magazine has violated the very "11th Commandment" that it has in the past loudly urged on others.

But indeed, the worst is yet to come, in the form of the magazine's cover photograph of Rudy as "Rudina". Ms. O'Bierne's piece, for all its shortcomings, made absolutely no mention of Rudy's famous creation of the character of Rudina. Thus, the choice by the magazine's editors to use Rudina as cover art represents nothing more than a rank pandering to prurience, harking back to the "bad-old-days" of "Yellow Journalism". Shame! Shame! Shame!

Truly condign punishment for such conduct would be for Rudy actually to win the White House -- be still my heart -- and then deny National Review access thereto for all eight years of the Giuliani Administration! Fortunately, Rudy has far too much class for that!

Luther Hardy

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