Rudy the Watercooler Candidate

Earlier today, Rudy Giuliani sparked a raging live-blog at RedState's RedHot and Rudy diaries seemto be overtaking the early flurry of Romney diaries. At the end of the day, I think Rudy will be just fine because I sense there are just more people (from all corners of the GOP) who would crawl on glass to support him than there are for McCain, Romney, Allen, etc. all of whom seem to the "default" candidates of the head, not the heart.

This thread on tonight's RedHot is a perfect case-in-point:

Sounds Exactly Like My In-Laws [machiavel]
It's much the same with my in-laws. They're solid Republicans from the Midwest, primary voters, Rush Limbaugh listeners, and not very interest-group driven.

And at more than one family occasion, it's been "I hope Giuliani runs."
Posted at 07/25/2006 07:45:59 PM EST - #

Re: Rudy [Crank]
I've had roughly the same conversation with my wife, notwithstanding the fact that my wife is really more of a pro-lifer than a Republican.
Posted at 07/25/2006 07:41:56 PM EST - #

Actual Daly Family Dinner Conversation [Dales]

Very fitting, considering the Giuliani debate from earlier on here.

Me (following up on a politics question from my wife): "I think the 2008 Republican primary is going to be very, very interesting."

My wife: "I hope it is Giuliani."

Me, after some crosstalk with the kids: "He's pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control."

My wife: "He is? Wait a minute, I thought he was a Republican."

Me: "He is. There are pro-choice Republicans. There are pro-gay marriage Republicans. There are all sorts of Republicans."

My wife: "That doesn't make sense to me. Still, I'd rather him than Hillary."

My daughter: "Why wouldn't you want Hillary?"

My wife: "I just don't think she is very honest. I hope it is Rudy. I want someone who can beat her.

Posted at 07/25/2006 07:38:51 PM EST - #

I hope this doesn't come across as too rah-rah and echo-chamberish, but these three simultaneous comments confirm what I've seen in the blogosphere and offline. Republicans seem genuinely excited about Rudy. They're buzzing about him at the watercooler and the dinner table. They're talking to their friends about him. Outside of a few consultant-types, I have detected no such spontaneous outpouring for McCain.

This is why you have stuff like the Gallup poll, which shows him far and away as the most exciting nominee for Republicans. This is why you have anecdotes like the one from the Ryan Sager's piece yesterday, where an Atlanta-based pollster admits he couldn't get very many Christian conservative Rudy supporters to budge when he dredged up all the dirt for them to see. That's why you see fewer Rudy supporters defecting to an alternative like Condi in Strategic Vision polls.

I have no way of proving this until he actually runs, but I think people are going to be surprised at how solid Rudy's support winds up being. It's not going to be the wavering conservatives who haven't learned about his past positions. It's going to be people who are sold and know what they want. In fact, I'd bet that the main knock on Rudy supporters (they're highly wavering and driven by name-ID) actually applies more to "supporters" of the default "frontrunner" McCain.

It's just a hunch -- but one that all the current polling seems to hint pretty strongly at.

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