WOW. Rudy Killing McCain 2-1 in "Very Favorable" Impressions Among Iowa Voters
Not something I'd picked up on in my first pass at this. But take a look at this chart.
Rudy's got a 71-18 fav/unfav ratio among Iowa voters. McCain is at 59-24.
But that's not what catches my interest. Take a look at the "very favorable" column. Rudy 28, McCain 14.
These aren't the party crosstabs for Republicans. This is among the entire voting population. And we know from previous polls that McCain retains virtually identical fav/unfav ratios with Republicans, Democrats, and independents while Rudy's numbers follow a more partisan path, with slightly lower numbers than McCain among non-Republicans.
The Grubbs poll that showed Rudy out front showed McCain with a similar fav/unfav ratio with Republicans, Rudy in single digits unfav, and favs in the high 60s. I don't think it's all that unreasonable to assume that Rudy holds down a very favorable number in the high 30s/low 40s with caucus-goers, with McCain in the mid-teens.
Why does this matter? Because the Very Favorable universe is the one you use to build your supporter base, and Rudy has more than twice as many Republican voters to work with in Iowa than McCain.
This is why I'm so bullish on Rudy, despite the wise old Beltway hands and McCain/Romney hacks filling the echo chamber claiming otherwise. Every shred of impartial, empirical data confirms this. Don't listen to the pundits. Don't listen to the consultants. Listen to the data. Listen to the ground-level activists and the voters on this one.