Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Rudy Continues to Lead in National GOP Polls

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog


The Latest Real Clear Politics GOP National Poll Averages continue to have Mayor Giuliani leading:


The Polls:


Cook/RT Strategies



USA Today/Gallup

The trend-line Graph:


With Rudy continuing to hold onto a precarious lead in national GOP polling, the meteroic rise of Fred Thompson and the early poll leads in Iowa and New Hampshire by Mitt Romney, will the Mayor change strategies and REALLY contend in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada?

Or, will the Mayor hope that Romney and Thompson divide votes between the early states and rely on his voter strength in Florida and then move on to Super Tuesday?

Flap hypothesizes the Mayor will bombard Florida with a television/radio media campaign and ignore the early states, hoping to run second or third. With so little time between the contests it would be a crap-shoot for Hizzoner to waste resources on organizing the early states and neglecting the later February 5 contests - particularly California.

Now, the Mayor will continue to fundraise and watch Thompson and Romney duke it out for second place over the summer.

McCain is done because of his position on the Senate illegal immigration bill and his money will DRY UP. Flap predicts he will be out by Labor Day - probably a health excuse.

Stay tuned……


Rudy Giuliani Watch: Florida - Its Rudy vs. Fred Thompson

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Quits Iraq Study Group to Make Money?

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy 28% Thompson 19% McCain 18% Romney 7% in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Left’s Inability to Rebut Rudy Giuliani on Terrorism

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Nation Lacks Strong Leadership

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy - “My 12 Commitments to America”

The Rudy Giuliani Archive

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At 5:40 PM, Blogger Rob said...

SUMMARY: Unless something changes, Clinton will win the Democratic party nomination, Romney (!) will win several states that vote in January, but Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), which includes California and New York (Giuliani strongholds) will probably decide the Republican party nomination (Thompson is an X-factor).

I think Iowa (Jan. 14), Michigan (Jan. 15), South Carolina (Jan. 19/29), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22, but could move up), Florida (Jan. 29), California (Feb. 5) and New York (Feb. 5) will likely determine the Presidential candidates for November 2008. The Georgia Republican and Democratic primaries are February 5, 2008, and could be key in the GOP nomination. The Virginia and D.C. Republican and Democratic primaries are February 12, 2008, and may be a factor in the GOP nomination if Super Tuesday doesn't produce a front-runner. The Massachusetts and Texas Republican and Democratic primaries are March 4, 2008.

I have been following the state-by-state polling using a Wikipedia site that collects and tracks such data (sources for all polls are fully attributed). (FYI, I'm the "chart guy" on these sites.) I provide my personal observations of the trends for each race below.

Romney has a solid 15 point lead on everyone else, and about 30-35% of voters are still undecided.
(links are truncated on this site, so go to wikipedia and type in opinion polling for the Republican presidential campaign 2008)

Romney has a solid 9 point lead on everyone else, and about 30% of voters are still undecided and Thompson is showing strength.

====South Carolina====
Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-25% of the vote, and over 30% remain undecided.

Romney has a 5 point lead on Thompson and they are running neck-in-neck, and about 25% of voters are still undecided.

====New Hampshire====
Romney has a 10 point lead on everyone else, and about 20% of voters are still undecided.

Similar to South Carolina, Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-30% of the vote, and over 25% remain undecided.

Giuliani (weakening) maintains 30% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has nearly crossed the 20% mark, and about 20-25% remain undecided.

====New York====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 45% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has crossed the 10% mark, and about 25% remain undecided.

Clinton is slowly building and recently passed Edwards. Obama is within 5 points and keeping pace with Clinton. 30% remain undecided.

Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with 20-25% undecided.

====South Carolina====
Clinton leads Obama by about 5 points. About 20-25% remain undecided.

Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with about 30% undecided.

====New Hampshire====
Clinton has expanded her lead to about 15 points on Obama with about 20-30% undecided.

Clinton commands a 20% lead on Obama with about 25-30% undecided.

Clinton has a 30% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.

====New York====
Clinton has a 30-40% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.

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