Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

+12 in PA, +4 in GA (Did I Mention How Much I Love Strategic Vision?)

Strategic Vision is proving to be the heavyweight of state-by-state '08 polling. Until SurveyUSA includes a primary ballot test on its famed 50-state roll, SV will remain the best indicator of regional strength in what remains a fluid field.

Pennsylvania is coming in as a stronghold for Rudy, with a +12% advantage (if they'd only move up their primary date, Rudy could firewall there). The first set of results is without Condi, the second, with:

20. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 38%
John McCain 26%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 2%
George Allen 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 20%

23. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008 with Condoleezza Rice included? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 36%
John McCain 20%
Condoleeza Rice 10%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
George Allen 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 19%
Rudy holds on to a small lead in Georgia:
21. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support (Republicans Only)?
Rudy Giuliani 28%
John McCain 24%
Newt Gingrich 13%
George Allen 9%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 16%

23. If Condoleeza Rice were to run for President in 2008, whom would you support for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 25%
John McCain 16%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Condoleeza Rice 10%
George Allen 6%
Mitt Romney 4%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 21%
BTW: Rudy-backed Ralph Reed holds a 6-point lead in the primary for Lieutenant Governor.

Extrapolating wildly from these two data points, we see Rudy performing better in a Northeastern battleground than in the South. No surprise there. In most polls of the South, Florida excepted, Rudy unperforms midly and McCain slightly overperforms, despite McCain's being so despised by the conservative base.

What's really throwing me through a loop is the Condi effect. In the last 4 Strategic Vision polls, her inclusion (with all due respect to the Condistas, not gonna happen) has bolstered Rudy's bottom line. We know from last month's Diageo-Hotline that McCain's supporters are the most likely to be afflicted with BDS, so what's with George Bush's Secretary of State overperforming with McCain supporters?! Could it be that McCain's support is just plain soft -- that when the "are gonna happen" scenarios pan out (Romney, Allen raise their Name ID), his support evaporates?

This certainly flies in the face of the Chuck Todd/David Keene line on Rudy ("his support drops the minute he announces"). Rudy's support holds up pretty strong no matter who you throw in there. When you exclude Rudy, the number of undecideds shoots way up. It's pretty clear that the people supporting Rudy in polls are more deeply committed than the BDBM thinks.

Just to settle the argument, I'd be interested to see Strategic Vision ask a question excluding McCain. Could it be that he rises even than McCain does on the no-Rudy question? My guess is that he does, indicating a broader reservoir of goodwill among the Republican base, conservative or not.

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