Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Sunday, July 02, 2006

ARG Update: Story Picked Up in NH

ARG's questionable polling practices make  the pages of the Concord Monitor in New Hampshire:

Ryan Sager, writing at RealClearPolitics.com, said he had a "bee in (his) bonnet" over Manchester-based pollster American Research Group. Sager said ARG "wreaks havoc" for former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani with its polling practices, which he believes unfairly favor Arizona Sen. John McCain for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination.

Earlier this year, ARG ran a poll that didn't include Giuliani among 10 possible Republican candidates. In May, ARG conducted polls in
14 states. In the first question, likely Republican voters were asked about a slate that included McCain and eight others. In a second question, Giuliani was added to the list.

In New Hampshire, McCain claimed 46 percent on the first question and 41 percent on the second, with Giuliani next at 13
percent.

Sager thought Giuliani would have scored higher if he'd been in the mix on the first question.

Actually, we know that Rudy would have scored higher on the first question, and by 60% to be precise. A couple of weeks ago, we compared Condi Rice's performance on first and second ballots over a number of polls and found a bump of that magnitude when she was placed on the first ballot.

Bennett, meanwhile, seems to be backtracking a little:

ARG's Dick Bennett said his litmus test is whether someone says he or she is running or considering running. At the time, Giuliani - who lately has hired a major fundraiser and visited Iowa, though not New Hampshire - did not seem like a candidate, Bennett said.

"Generally there's no secret that somebody's running. He's a mystery," he said. "We didn't include Condoleezza Rice (either),
because she says she's not interested.

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