Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

A Bad Night for John McCain

Lieberman loses and is thown out of the party. In MI-07, McCain-endorsed Joe Schwarz is booted by a conservative primary challenger. Primary voters tire easily of mavericks.

I'll tread lightly on what these primaries mean for good or ill, because a rejection of a "moderate" like McCain can also mean the rejection of a "moderate" like Rudy. But I think we can cautiously assume that hardcore, ideological primary voters (and they're even more hardcore in off-years) will accept a more "moderate" nominee (Baar-Topinka in IL, Corker in TN) who is perceived as absolutely loyal to the party. If you generally vote like a liberal but cross your party on an issue of fundamental importance (Lieberman on Iraq = McCain on immigration and taxes) or if you actively campaign as a RINO (Schwarz), you lose. If Rudy tries to act like a maverick or play the moderate, I'll be much more sanguine about his chances.

And to Gary, no, this doesn't mean Giuliani is a liberal, only that he will be attacked as such and we should be prepared. The 2006 Republican primary season provides clear guideposts for when those charges stick and when they don't.

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At 2:23 AM, Blogger LJ said...

This is ridiculous. Joe Schwarz was endorsed by not only John McCain but also President Bush as well, along with most of the Michigan Republican Party. I hardly think that you can extrapolate Schwarz's loss as a negative for McCain. If that's the case then Ralph Reed's primary loss last month should be the death knell for Rudy's campaign.

Frankly, I'm still amazed at how you can view Rudy as anything more than a glorified RINO.

At 8:30 AM, Blogger Gary Matthew Miller said...

Yes, both conservatives and Rudy backers can rejoice that the Bush/McCain candidate was defeated here.

At 8:39 AM, Blogger RudyBlogger said...

That's exactly right. Schwarz was the establishment candidate. And in MI, we are told that McCain is the one with the most extensive support from the MRP and has all the establishment support.

That support didn't come through for Schwarz. How are we to expect it will come through for McCain when the '08 primary will be even more difficult for the poo-bahs to control?

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