Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy vs. Hillary by the Electoral Numbers

Cross Posted from the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog


Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani autographs a poster at the World Ag Expo, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2007, in Tulare, Calif. Giuliani toured the expo on his latest stop in a trek through California.

Michael Barone U.S. News: Hillary Vs. Rudy

They’re leading in polls for their parties’ nominations, and so I think we have to regard this as the likeliest pairing in the 2008 presidential race, at least for now. Last July, pollster Jay Leve of SurveyUSA did surveys in 50 states and the District of Columbia of several pairings of candidates. You can see the electoral vote results with a few clicks. They show Giuliani ahead of Clinton 354 to 184. I would guess it would be somewhat closer now, and both candidates carried several states by statistically insignificant margins. Premium subscribers can get access to the percentage results in each state and to the demographic breakdown in each state; there are enough respondents to make the latter statistically significant, with the usual caution that the margin of error is significantly greater for subgroups than for the whole state.

I have examined these numbers before in this blog but decided to give them another look.

Barone has an interesting analysis using old data. But, his conclusions are common sense:

Rudy beats Hillary by putting the East and California in play

Notwithstanding any gaffes by Rudy or a sudden shift of the Democrat Party to nominate Obama, the most likely scenario is that Hillary loses in the electoral college either by a lot or by enough - more than Bush win or Kerry loss in 2004.

Barone noted that Rudy was most weak in the Central Valley in California. Note where Hizzoner was last week campaigning: the Central Valley of California.

California has a winner take all primary by congressional district system. Look for the Mayor to campaign hard in most of them and spend many of his primary campaign dollars in media in the many more rural California counties - gearing up for the general election push for 55 electoral votes.

The electoral college map:


Target states for the Giuliani campaign will be these:

1. California - 55

2. Florida - 27

3. Pennsylvania - 21

4. New York - 31

5. New Jersey - 15

The population of the states vis a vis their electoral college vote ranking is here.

Note that these are BIG media states. A reason why fund raising will be increasingly important to reach the media markets with a saturation of television and radio ads.

Barone’s conclusions:

Upshot: Democrats have some small cause for satisfaction here. Rudy is clearly not as heavily backed as Bush, and voters show more sign of appreciating Hillary’s long southern sojourn than many of us thought. But at best for the Democrats, this puts Arkansas, Louisiana, and West Virginia into play (20 electoral votes) and possibly Virginia (13 electoral votes), while leaving North Carolina and Georgia (30 electoral votes) still out of reach. And Rudy is at least as strong in Florida (27 electoral votes) as Bush was in ‘04.

National upshot: Rudy’s electoral vote position against Hillary is much stronger than Bush’s against Kerry. Rudy puts almost the whole East into play and is significantly stronger in several target states in the Midwest and West. Hillary puts some states into play in the South but with many fewer electoral votes than Rudy does elsewhere. Even if you assume that Hillary is stronger against Rudy today than she was in July, the pairing does place the Republicans in a stronger position than Bush was in ‘04.

So, the GOP has REAL opportunities to retain the White House with Giuliani. Is it time to annoint Rudy the nominee and move on to fund raising for the general election against Hillary Clinton?

Apparently ……



Rudy Giuliani Watch: New York Times Tells Rudy How to Campaign

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Visits with South Carolina Firefighters

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Opts Out of Religious Broadcasters Meeting

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Evangelical Richard Land Strikes Back at Rudy

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Latest Fox News Poll Shows Rudy with Double Digit Lead Over McCain

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Not Confident Iraq War Will Turn Around

Rudy Giuliani Watch: May 3 Debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Yes, I’m Running

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags:


Find this post interesting? Get posts
from this blog in your inbox once a day:


At 9:34 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ninest123 10.15
ralph lauren polo, uggs outlet, replica watches, chanel handbags, longchamp bags, longchamp outlet, prada outlet, michael kors outlet, burberry outlet, louboutin uk, louis vuitton outlet, prada handbags, tory burch outlet, replica watches, uggs on sale, nike free, michael kors outlet store, michael kors handbags, louis vuitton handbags, oakley sunglasses, gucci handbags, louis vuitton outlet online, cheap oakley sunglasses, louis vuitton, tiffany jewelry, louis vuitton outlet, ray ban sunglasses, longchamp outlet, oakley sunglasses, ralph lauren outlet, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet online, kate spade, christian louboutin, uggs on sale, burberry factory outlet, michael kors, nike air max, ray ban sunglasses, nike outlet, oakley sunglasses, tiffany jewelry, christian louboutin, uggs outlet, ray ban sunglasses, cheap jordans, uggs on sale, louboutin shoes

At 9:38 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

michael kors, new balance, nike free pas cher, nike air force, michael kors, lululemon outlet, converse, lunette oakley pas cher, timberland pas cher, true religion outlet, coach purses, lunette ray ban pas cher, nike tn pas cher, jordan pas cher, vanessa bruno pas cher, coach outlet store online, sac guess pas cher, polo ralph lauren uk, nike roshe uk, vans pas cher, mulberry uk, nike air max pas cher, ray ban uk, abercrombie and fitch, hermes pas cher, nike air max uk, coach outlet, true religion outlet, north face uk, true religion outlet, abercrombie and fitch UK, longchamp soldes, true religion jeans, north face pas cher, kate spade outlet, hogan sito ufficiale, michael kors uk, nike blazer pas cher, nike air max uk, nike free, nike air max, nike roshe run pas cher, louboutin pas cher, michael kors outlet online, burberry pas cher, ralph lauren pas cher, longchamp pas cher, polo lacoste pas cher, coach outlet

At 9:40 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

new balance shoes, soccer jerseys, vans scarpe, valentino shoes, ray ban, reebok outlet, abercrombie, nike roshe run, soccer shoes, beats by dre, salvatore ferragamo, polo ralph lauren, babyliss pro, nike air huarache, celine handbags, nfl jerseys, longchamp uk, ghd hair, hollister, iphone cases, converse shoes outlet, giuseppe zanotti, insanity workout, mcm handbags, mac cosmetics, herve leger, jimmy choo outlet, timberland boots, lululemon outlet, nike trainers uk, p90x workout, nike air max, hermes handbags, oakley, chi flat iron, abercrombie and fitch, vans outlet, converse, softball bats, gucci, nike air max, asics running shoes, louboutin, hollister clothing, bottega veneta, instyler ionic styler, mont blanc, north face outlet, north face outlet, wedding dresses, hollister uk, oakley sunglasses

At 9:43 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

moncler uk, moncler, michael kors outlet, moncler, juicy couture outlet, supra shoes, michael kors outlet online, wedding dresses uk, canada goose, canada goose outlet, pandora jewelry, doke & gabbana, coach outlet, louis vuitton uk, sac louis vuitton, links of london uk, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, moncler pas cher, toms shoes, canada goose, barbour jackets uk, swarovski jewelry, sac louis vuitton, canada goose outlet, moncler, moncler, canada goose jackets, michael kors handbags, marc jacobs, pandora uk, moncler jackets, ugg uk, juicy couture outlet, canada goose uk, moncler outlet, barbour, pandora jewelry, hollister, thomas sabo uk, replica watches, louis vuitton, bottes ugg pas cher, pandora charms, lancel, louis vuitton, canada goose jackets, montre pas cher, swarovski uk, karen millen uk, canada goose pas cher, ugg pas cher
ninest123 10.15

At 1:03 AM, Blogger Minko Chen said...

michael kors factory store
prada outlet online
winter coats
mlb jerseys
parajumpers outlet
tory burch outlet
salomon shoes
coach outlet online
canada goose outelt
michael kors outlet
nba jerseys
ugg boots sale
swarovski outlet
true religion jeans
discount oakley sunglasses
cyber monday 2015
cheap jordans
michael kors outlet online
ugg boots
oakley outlet store

At 4:31 AM, Blogger Liu Liu said...

The New Orleans Nike Roshe Run Saints played their best game of the season, taking down the Los Angeles Rams, 49-21. It was another day at the office for the offense, while Jared Goff fell apart in the second half despite a strong start.

The Saints move to 5-6, but the Atlanta louboutin outlet Falcons took down the NFL Jerseys Arizona Cardinals to move to 7-4. The Washington Redskins loss Nike Air Max 90 moved them to 6-4-1, giving the Saints a bit of hope in catching up christian louboutin uk to them.

Here nfl jerseys store is a christian louboutin shoes look at the key wholesale nfl jerseys things we learned from the cheap nfl jerseys Saints victory over the Nike Air Max 2015 Shoes Rams. Nike Free Run


Post a Comment

<< Home