What I Said...
A new Gallup poll reenforces what RB and myself have been saying about John McCain- he simply lacks the level of support by members of his own party needed to capture the Republican nomination:
John McCain is considered by many to be the front-runner for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. He is rated positively by a majority of Americans, and is unique in that evaluations of him are similar among Americans of different partisan affiliations. While that would make him a formidable candidate in a general election, he could be vulnerable in Republican presidential primaries and caucuses. Indeed, in a recent poll Gallup found Republicans were more likely to find Rudy Giuliani or Condoleezza Rice, rather than McCain, as acceptable Republican presidential nominees.
McCain stands apart from most politicians in that his ratings are similar across the three party groups. Fifty-nine percent of Republicans, 55% of independents, and 56% of Democrats rate him favorably.
By comparison, George W. Bush has a 40% favorable rating, but his favorable ratings are 86% among Republicans, 34% among independents and 12% among Democrats. Hillary Clinton, the presumed front-runner for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, has a 51% overall favorable rating, including 16% among Republicans, 52% among independents, and 75% among Democrats.
Yes, you read that correctly. McCain approval among Republicans is only three points higher that his approval among Democrats!
Can someone explain to me how a candidate who can’t break 60% approval among members of his own party is going to capture their nomination for President?
Of course Rudy has no such problems.
Update by RudyBlogger: This only reinforces my conviction that McCain is the Republican Lieberman, and that WH'08 on the Republican side will be CT-SEN and MI-07 writ large. And we should take McCain's Presidential bid about as seriously as we took Lieberman's four years ago.