McCain Among RVs, Rudy Among LVs?
After the last CNN poll, I asked Strategic Vision's David Johnson about a long-time pet theory of mine: that McCain dominates among independents and casual Republicans likely to be swayed by Name ID, and Giuliani dominates among core party activists (at least w/r/t McCain).
It turns out that there may be something to the theory:
Giuliani's lead in our polls can be attributed somewhat to the states we poll in such as Pennsylvania and New Jersey, where one would expect a strong Giuliani lead but more to the screens we use for Republican voters and the residual dislike for McCain among Republican voters from 2000.
So the more you screen GOP voters, the better he tends to do. Even in states you might expect to lean to McCain, like Wisconsin and Washington, Rudy usually emerges with 9-10 point leads.
The race begins in earnest after tomorrow. And Rudy Giuliani begins this race in the same place he's been for months: as the frontrunner.