Giuliani Blog Tracking the likely Presidential candidacy of Rudy Giuliani

Friday, June 09, 2006

Freepers for Rudy, Continued

Why there is no doubt in my mind that McCain will not be the nominee:

Composite Opinion
Third Party 39.1% 2,598
McCain 34.8% 2,313
Sit it out 13.3% 882
Undecided 8.1% 539
Hillary 4.8% 316


Composite Opinion
Rudy 67.7% 1,524
Third party 21.9% 494
Sit it out 4.4% 100
Undecided 3.4% 77
Hillary 2.5% 57


These are the results of polls taken on Free Republic, a destination that makes even conservatives in the blogosphere blanch. And while a significant chunk say they'd go third party with Rudy (they're Tancredoites, analogous to the Feingold backers on Daily Kos), just look at those McCain numbers. More Freepers would go third party than vote for McCain. Fully a third of Freepers would be willing to back Rudy but not McCain in a general election.

Wow. Just wow.

A huge part of the BDBM C.W. on '08 is that McCain is likely to beat Rudy because of the abortion issue. Polls like this fly in the face of this -- and this is important. Why? Because it totally blows away the underpinnings of more than half of what's written about WH'08 by the mainstream media. If the pro-life, anti-illegal immigrant core of the party is given a clear choice between Rudy and McCain, they'll pick Rudy by a mile.

If McCain is forced down the party's throat, the right wing will shear off. To a large degree, Rudy keeps them there -- while getting you all the independents McCain would have gotten you.

Rank-and-file Republicans understand this. The media doesn't.

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At 3:02 PM, Blogger Dave said...

Considering that Freepers probably comprise the rightmost, say, 40 percent of Republicans, this would be consistent with the scientific polling that shows only 13-14 percent of Republicans won't vote for Rudy. GWB, in a largely base-driven election in 2004, won all but 7 percent of Republicans. That 6-7 percent of GOP voters that supported GWB but won't support Rudy is a) much, much smaller than the CW suggests and b) will be easily made up for by a comparable number of Democrats who will support Rudy but wouldn't vote for GWB. Factor in the near-certainty that Rudy would outperform GWB among independents and it becomes almost impossible for Rudy to lose a general election against Hillary or any bluish Democrat.

At 4:25 PM, Blogger Argo said...

It appears pollster Charlie Cook is actively working against Rudy Giuliani, attempting to paint him as too liberal for the GOP's conservative base, while at the same time, touting his personal favorite, John McCain.

In this recent Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll, they only reported the combined results among Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP. McCain led with 29%. Giuliani landed in second place with 24%.

Knowing Cook's anti-Rudy bias, it makes it that much more suspicious that they did not disclose the results from just those who defined themselves as Republicans. I suspect, as is confirmed by unscientific polls at Free Republic and , that Rudy would have less opposition within the GOP than McCain, and that's all that's relevant come primary season, when most independents and RINOs aren't voting.

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